beabaggage

Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall?

PWI was bought out by Arabs years ago! get with the program!
we all should have sold then, they are way down from then due to Harper's madness in CN and the low price of NG.
HTE bot by Korea for a song, $10 unit CN. they take over a refinery in a strategic place north atlantic in tip top shape, a foot hold in oil sands (pwe only independent w oil sands assets left) and a bunch of debt from the refinery acquisiton. harper is selling cn to the highest bidder. 1/1/2010 the foreign tax on divs goes to 25% on most of these trusts from 15%, you can only claim so much on your US Taxes like $300 or so. EWC best way to play CN or a closed end fund like OGF-UN. TO or VIP-UN.TO, Brompton funds managed by Manulife, very conservatively since they started managing. nice divs. PVX has paid debt way down, sold their US assets at the top of the market 7/08 and fringe assets recently.

long OGFun, VIPun, PWE, PVX, sold my HTE at the annoucement for $9.36 US. ERF on my radar but is overpriced now.
check out Consumerswaterheatersi... trust, a good one recently reduced div debt all restructured way down, pays .054 mo CN not subject to 25% only 15% in US net eff yield is about 10% on current US price. cash flow cow. hidden asset in smart meter business in CN. long that too. CN has helped me get back to "even" but it has been a struggle. short brazil that is the next bubble to burst.

Oil: The Price Is Right

for some strange reason I feel better about PVX and PWE positions I have now! i am overweight canroys via these, some of the "dog" HTE and ogf.un-to, brompton o/g fund. when pvx sold their us assets to breitburn at the peak of oil price, paid down debt, i thought that was a very good move and have averaged in, pwe is the cadillac. dont like the leverage on HTE or OGF.UN but the divs are good.
collecting divs while all this sorts out is the key. i hope the oil report shows big draw down, gotta figure w school out a LOT of folks went away last week, who knows!

Natural Gas: The Next Big Thing

put your money where your mouth is, if it is cheap buy some of the crap you listed as attractive! chickens play options.
utilities looking to improve margins that can do so may use NG for summer needs, helping, plus storage being nearly full means producers will have to stop producing so much- there is no where to put it! and yes as others have commented, oil can go back to $35.
China is talking a W shaped recovery in their market after stimulus wears down, see G-8 meeting comments. dollar will come back (albeit temporarily) and 10ytreas will rise. summer will be tough with all the dealership/plant closings and related fall out. back to school could be tough also, setting up for a Sept/Oct retest of market lows taking commodities with it. safe haven money will flow back into treasuries and gold, more stimulus will be needed but harder to push thru with 2010 elections looming next- and we are back to where we were, maybe worse.

so NG may be a short-term play, 4-5$ range bound probably for a while.

Using DRIPs for Faster Compounding of Dividends

tax accounting for drip investments is a nightmare, i had them with BPOP and CSE before I luckily got out of those crappy financials. each investment, when sold, must be treated seperately. short/long term gains etc.

the drips are killing us too these days with fees.

so they are good, agree somewhat, but find one without fees and a discount and be aware.

what I do now is take all my divs ea month and average into another buy, since my Fidelity is at 8$ to trade, it costs very little to do this. so if I buy 200 shares of PGH to add to that, the fee is lower and I can manage my portfolio better.

Penn West Still Shaky After Cutting Distribution

There is no money left to fund alternative energy, if Oil stays at 50-60 or less for a few years and NG 4-6$, which it could if supply is flat and demand weak, then all the wind, solar and gasification nonsense will go the way of the 70's "alt energy" push. I think this will force NG to be the alt energy of choice as we have so much of it in US and CN and offshore, then NG assets are great. that was my attraction to AAV, now getting hurt as NG is down. filled up 12 gal with a local food market discount we get here in W. Pa from our grocers, had 46c build up, so a fillup only cost me $15! cheap for sure!

Without Exception, Drilling Companies Face Tough Times

nat gas cap ex very strong in us, barnett and marcellus drilling still high, which may help w Grey Wolf assets, but they ruined this company by buying GW with high cost debt and maybe in 5yrs it will look like it was a good deal but now they just did it to protect their jobs-- who would buy them with high debt?! more scared management doing job protection at the expense of shareholders. I read annual repts for 06, 07, watched company, bought in averaging in to 400 shares, even bot GW for more shares, then came current economic nightmare and all my investor due dilegence went down the tubes by another management that needs sued. maybe Boone Pickens will get involved or Ichan, clean house.
thing is, if they can pay 48c CN, which they may be able to, the yield is not bad, so I am holding now, but any spike in price I am out, shudda sold at $10 last month.

Penn West Still Shaky After Cutting Distribution

good analysis but I think you are forgetting hedging, I expece mgmt, which has been very good at hedging compared to the other canroys, to have put on even more hedges to get thru 09 divs. they have some that are very high from summer 08. also labor/steel/other costs are falling dramatically, then you have more potential capex cuts, plus they are selling marginal assets and paying down debt, which is very good. I am long too, div may be cut but it would be more to prepare us for the SIFT d-day, even at 15cents, usa after tax yield is high at current price. added some at 10.95 recently, and will add to PGH too when pullback, it also seems solid, probably paring back my AAV and not sure about HTE w all that debt, although refinery sure looks smart now w spreads and its proximity to energy starved western and eastern Europe!
consolidation will keep a floor under canroy stock prices, all it will take is one deal and bam, we will see pop where yields make more sense.

Oil Income Stocks Decline to New Price Lows

low share prices to book value of proven safe country CN assets will keep PGH/PWE etc. (long) up. They can tweak capex and hedge to keep cash flow going. SU in a low oil price scenario is a big risk for sure. consolidation of CN oil/gas cos is the next wave. big spiders CVX, XOM, COP etc. can snatch up good assets and potential fields for a song now. tarsands only viable with high oil, regardless of subsidies. new wave of environmental concern for oilsand mess harming migratory birds will keep conventional oil/ngas in focus, unconventional energy (wind, solar, oilsands, etc) again will be a memory just like before. Obama will just not have the money available to make a substantive shift in energy resources. so buy away, load up on fallen canroys and benefit from CN $ appreciation, divs, assets in a safe country, forget clean energy and alternatives.

3 Top and Bottom Market Sectors for This Week

sector rotation at year end during tax selling etc. is not a valid trading stat. with hedge fund deleveraging, redemptions, mutual fund tweaking etc. trading trends can be potholes if used to buy/sell/short.

Ashford Hospitality, Aircastle 'Enhance Liquidity'

Sold mine after div announcement, mgmt scammers for sure. few weeks before all announcements, pres, who had been a buyer of common, bot nice chunk of pfd's. then declares pfd divs and elim common. they led everyone to believe with no debt due next few yrs, lots of cash, low libor debt etc. they would be ok to ride out recession. now they appear to be headed toward bankruptcy for sure. reits almost disappeared in the 70s and this 70's like recession mess we are just starting out in will eliminate a lot more now. most have just too much debt and not enough cash flow.

What's Driving Precision Drilling Trust Into the Ground?

Long GW and PDS, div cut not good for me, but in all reality it was coming if the stupid SIFT tax stays on anyway. Harper gone soon may help SIFT issues for CN retirees who bot trusts for income, they will need it a lot w depression and taking care of their kids who will come home jobless with mines closing/scaling back left and right.
Southwestern Energy and Equitable Res. US co's stll have annouced and confirmed recently massive US drilling in 2009, which PDS nimble mgmt can now take advantage of w GW and expiration of noncompete from old US divestiture. Long term these PDS shares will be good holding IF they can rapidly paydown/refi the debt when things get better.
we shall see, annual report will be very good reading this year for clues.
what are you supposed to buy/ RIG? they fled to Switzerland this week, an analyst said Swiss Franc is the next Iceland. If you want to own a driller, and with marcellus/etc. still hot you should own one, safe country CN potential currency appreciation play is a good hold.

Canadian Oil Offers More Bang for the U.S. Buck

CN $ appreciating now too, the strongest currency in the world with their fiscal responsibility. Alberta taxing to come down. who knows maybe when they dump Harper the SIFT tax will go or be modified, you can't have rising taxes on retirees who own most of the CN Trusts when there is recession.
Oh Canada, Glorius............

Risky Opportunity Awaits in Junior Gold Sector

long NXG and GFI a downtrodden major getting its act together now.
Love how gold fell 25% and the world said gold's rise is over! that is a blip on a gold chart. here we go up again.
if you want to see a real chart, look at the inflation adjusted gold chart in the new Natl Geographic that adjusts gold back to 1700 in 2008 $, that makes early 80's spike price $2k and we are only in the 850 range, so a true spike would be 2-3k. very interesting that gold was inflation adj 1k for most of the 1700's. imagine the inflation in the 1700s with all the gold coming from new sources in the world then. you just have to own some gold and down trodden juniors and select majors are the way to go.

Time to Revise Our Gold Expectations

Another stupid analyst with another stupid way to account for the price of a junior mining stock. No honey, it is all based on fear and speculation. NXG should be upgraded, she has obviously not looked at their propects, ever increasing, which are not reflected in the book value NOR their totally written off major copper and gold asset, Kemess North. Once the CN govt starts dealing with many u/e people and Harper gone, the greenies will be silenced and KN will be back on the table, damn the stupid lake they are worried about.
We will see who is around longer, Credit Suisse or Northgate (as a stand alone company or part of some other major gold producer at some point!)

Long NXG and I read the reports and updates, not liek this idiot.
NXG producing 130,000 oz of gold this quarter, that is $100million of gross cash plus some copper offset and lower fuel and supply costs. Plus copper hedges from 6/09 on for Kemess South at north of $2.50 a lb.

The Loonie - A Petro-Currency

Canadian Banks are the best capitalized in the world, It's Life Insurers have AAA/A++ ratings while ours fall and are under watch for review. ManuLife bought a ton of timberland a few years ago cheap. They avoided the subprime derivative mess we are all in.
CN has no budget deficit and if you look at your chart, there is a nice double bottom on it.
Flood of safe money in TBills at some point back into commodities and continued depreciation of the US $ w make CN$ even more valuable. another person recently wrote a comment on Gold that made a good point- the world has 6Bil people and only 2bil have even heard of investing in commodities. Thus CN strong position with SAFE country assets backing it will make the Loonie stabilize and rise as the world economy turns, so it may be a good time to get into CN stocks, not US ones, which are bargains for sure. Many on my HOT list to add for 2009 when I do my IRA investment.