beabaggage

The Loonie - A Petro-Currency

Canadian Banks are the best capitalized in the world, It's Life Insurers have AAA/A++ ratings while ours fall and are under watch for review. ManuLife bought a ton of timberland a few years ago cheap. They avoided the subprime derivative mess we are all in.
CN has no budget deficit and if you look at your chart, there is a nice double bottom on it.
Flood of safe money in TBills at some point back into commodities and continued depreciation of the US $ w make CN$ even more valuable. another person recently wrote a comment on Gold that made a good point- the world has 6Bil people and only 2bil have even heard of investing in commodities. Thus CN strong position with SAFE country assets backing it will make the Loonie stabilize and rise as the world economy turns, so it may be a good time to get into CN stocks, not US ones, which are bargains for sure. Many on my HOT list to add for 2009 when I do my IRA investment.

Own Gold? Time to Fold

Addendum- no country believes more in owning physical gold and prec. metals than India's citizens. They are under terror alert, their stock market has been decimated, their rupee is falling. They wear it, hoard it, give it. Take a look at a recent National Geographic article showing people at a wedding. The bride was so weighed down by gold she almost fell over. In US/CN you can't find a Maple Leaf or Kruggerrand.

Gold is down on a $ chart because the $ is up on a safe haven play, which is ridiculous as the only way we can get out of the mess we are in is to inflate the hell out of the currency and money supply. Again, Treasury Bubble will also burst and flee into all sorts of things like Gold. The $'s decline will add to Gold's rise.

Own Gold? Time to Fold

Looking at a 3yr chart of gold is very convenient, gold trends in longer patterns and is forming a base for the true spike which always comes in times of uncertainty. Those in TIPS will be left holding the bag when we get $10,000 gold after India bombs Paki, US keeps printing trillions and recent mine shut downs/labor unrest cause supply to level or drop. Let the central banks sell who cares? theyve been selling for years and boy have they been wrong. Some gold in a portfolio is like some bonds and some cash- there is a balance to achieve. right now probably more like 10% than the traditional 5%.

good way to play is CEF, next on my list, also long NXG which is way cheap- 130,000 oz of gold being produced this quarter in safe countries/CN/AUS- and GFI (long) which is dirt cheap and pays a div too. A move from $400 to $1000 is not a big move for gold and it is just consolidating now, again, for the next move and probable spikes when the Treasury Bubble moves out into anything and everything.

Where Is Penn West Energy Trust Going?

Smurphny, they still own the assets, hard assets in the ground proven reserves in a safe country, which are attractive to many. mergers, consolidations and liquidations are the coming. with the arctic air weather patterns in place and Gasoline consumption rising per mastercard tracking of gas stations in US, NG and Oil will be rising soon for sure. good bye greenies again, see you in another 20 yrs, it is not economical in a world addicted to oil and gas to go that way unless all the oil and gas is gone. there is no money to invest and subsidize the green industries. witness the collapse of ethanol. one by one, wind, solar, ethanol, clean gas will drop and up goes oil and NG. Equitable Resources just annouced a $1bil US plan for 2009 to get gas from Marcellus Shale. buy PDS/GW to play that for sure. Long both.


On Dec 07 03:37 PM smurphny wrote:

> Caveat Emptor for damned sure. The very existence of the Canadian
> oil trusts is questionable at $20 crude which is a VERY real possibility.
> There may be no money to distribute and no way for the more heavily
> financed trusts to pay their note holders when crude becomes priced
> less than the cost to extract it. U.S. oil and gas trusts, with no
> debt are better energy bets right now because they will at least
> avoid bankruptcy while supplying a necessary commodity at reduced
> levels. Some of the CANROYS will probably be ok because they have
> small amounts of debt but others like HTE may be in trouble should
> the likely scenario of a depression continue to unfold. Averaging
> down to a final price of 0 IS NOT a good idea. "Cheap" at $5 does
> not look like cheap when it falls to $2.50 and the distribution is
> little help. Trade these things right now without regard for distributions
> because getting fixated on them can cost you much more than you will
> ever make back in distributions.

Where Is Penn West Energy Trust Going?

An inefficient structure and low stock price, coupled with massive proven assets in a safe country, will make this lack of expense and economy of scale control issue a moot point-- because Encana, Can Nat Res, Enerplus, Imperial Oil, Conoco or someone will just take them over for $14-16 if the price stays down here and good bye PWE. They have been savy in controlling debt structure but even this is hard at $40 oil, $5.60 NG.
So consolidation will be the rule of the day and all it takes is one of them to move on the Canroys and they will all fall/merge in rapid succession.

The SIFT tax may come about but with Harper soon gone, retirees needing their divs and CN needing oil and gas production/exploration jobs may cause this 2011 to be delayed or repealed to encourage investment. otherwise the u/e in Alberta, with oilsands being put on hold, will be unbearable to a country used to low u/e and no deficits/strong banks.

As painful as it is, anyway you look at it as a long-term investor in Canroys, you will be rewarded.
Long PWE, PVX,PGH,HTE, AAV, OGF.UN-TO, KYE and VIP.UN-TO. the stock drop has been painful but the divs, even if reduced, are incredible. Dollar will reverse soon with all the money the fed is printing and govt is spending and CN$ will rise as well.

Hang on to Your Gold

You all miss the point- the 1-2-$3trillion is causing a new bubble that will wash into somehting when it's owners get sick of .01% returns. As soon as some confidence returns, which may be a few months for sure, that things are under control, no major banks or insurers fail for a while, people feel some hope again, they will seek out higher returns vs safety. thus the trillions will suck out and into something. this will include gold and commodities as they are hard asset and liquid. the fed and paranoid EU hyperinflation cronies will panic and raise interest rates to fight the rise in the commodities index and stocks. with 4.5% mortgages people will scarf up cheap houses and condos, then the real crash comes when we are right back where we were BUT with inflation, just like the 70's. The 70's started out witl low inflation, then look out.

So hang on in gold and gold stocks in safe countries and you will be rewarded as it is inevitable. $1000 is not a bubble price in gold folks, maybe $10,000 will be the new high. And it hasn't fallen much, down to $756 or less than 25%-- if you had to buy gold in CN$ or EU or pound sterling, you'd pay a lot more with dollar up.

Long NXG, CEF, GFI, PAL, SWC

Why Gold Will Decline More than the Markets

how self serving to pick spots in the market to knock gold. Gold,which is down about 25% from its high, has held its own and is scarce on the retail level as people scramble to put some real asset every person in the world would own. normal correction in the price of gold, if you look at a 5yr chart, with support at 700, we are building a base for the mother of all spikes in commodities when all this .01% tbill money starts to slosh around looking for a home. miners will benefit most, the most beaten down ones first. gold goes from 700-900-1200-1500 the juniors will go from penny stocks to real values and mergers galore.

Lower Prices Now- Massive Inflation Later?

addendum- your chart on 30yr treasuries and the failure of the money pump by fed to budge mortgage rates is further proof people are very concerned about the long term. who would own 30yr anything now until things sort out and we get clarity??!!

Lower Prices Now- Massive Inflation Later?

Massive printing of funny money has always let to massive inflation. Coupled with low interest rates, the mother of all commodity price spikes in USD is coming for sure. Gold is still only 27% from top folks. This is a mild pullback for this volatile asset. Glad to see you included it here. We will have the 70's all over again, Banks are already in a bidding war for deposits, some paying 5-6% to get CD investors. NatCity/Citibank.
Check out Harry Dents site for his latest update on the coming depression. Maybe one more spike, then crash. Aggressive investors in gold/oil/commodities will be rewarded in short term but then shift to high yielding quality assets to secure the deflation of 2010-2023 and make tons on simple interest.
Long CN Oil trusts, NXG, PAL, SWC, ZINC,GFI, adding more each 15th with my massive CanRoy divs. Also a little AHT for some good hotel real estate assets in good markets run by seasoned hotel pros w no debt due anytime soon and lots of cash.

How to Save the U.S. Economy

GM/F/C all need to go into bankruptcy with govt assistance to bring them into the millenium with PBGC taking over pensions, removing legacy costs, hiring Toyota or Honda managers to run it and keep the industry vital. Assure payments to suppliers, back warranties so people will buy. Cut brands- Mercury, Ford and Lincoln products are all the same? who needs all these brands? same with Chevy,Pontiac. Cut out the management. Set up an ESOP, let the employees that remain participate in growth, work for it.

GM/F/C have sold on price and rebates, not quality, for years. just like ATT and MCI, when they ruined long distance by competing on price, and TOY/HON have just made fortunes and increased share. Even Hyundai is perceived as better than GM now, as a former Auto Loan repo guy in a bank, we would never even repo a hyundai 10yrs ago, it was not worth it. Now Hyundai is a great car with increasing market share.

No one bailed out Steel, it was let to fail in the 70-80s, the survivors are strong and can compete.

Stronger dollar will also help kill the autos. CN and MX plants looking good now.
LONG PAL, SWC and ZINC, all which would benefit from a stable industry. But when things recover, Hyundai, Hon/Toy/VW all can sell cars and will need this Plat/Pall and who cares who buys it. The auto market is all about the 3rd world anyway now, not the US.

Junior Gold Miners Are Dirt Cheap

Dont forget NXG long NXG. Instead of hoarding their cash, they bought cheap AUS mines to diversify and produce as Kemess South winds down, hidden written off asset in Kemess North that could get permitted if CN economy gets bad enough. One more lake ruined, who cares. Plus lots of other great assets, great management that knows how to get the gold out and improve yield, supposedly producing 120,000 oz of gold this quarter with some copper (hedged) credits against costs(Thats $90million in cash at gold $750 minus copper credit cost) - cost of diesel/oil going down, labor costs should settle down with all the other mines closing (PAL, etc.) .
no debt, weird ARS on the books as cash but not really cash, but still paying interest so they could monetize these ARS at some point, someone will buy them. CN banks are flush with cash and still lending, no cr problems like other world banks.

Lots of good juniors out there, lots of mergers coming for sure.

Provident Energy Trust: Income for Today and Tomorrow

Good article, also long PVX. Did not know about the tax pool til 2016, good point. This makes them a target for PGH or PWE and others who need more tax pool credits. AAV is another one with good tax pool. Own all and HTE too. also OGF.UN-TO, the Brompton fund that owns 5% of top 20 canroys paying .07 CN monthly, a great way to own these and diversify, managed by ManuLife/JH. VIP.UN-TO also in my basket, as is KYE which owns a little canroy. maybe I have too much portfolio in O&G but who cares, the divs every month from all these allow me to diversify into other areas that are cheap.

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

Ridiculous to believe that inflation, especially the 70's -80's type inflation we are in for due to the massive monetary stimulus going on that has no end in sight, will be good for stocks. Gold/Oil/Commodities? yes. Stocks? heck no, we are looking at Dow 4500. People are still far too bullish, thinking it's over it's over. it is not. The massive stimulus will just make another bubble and you can bet it will be spent on hard assets. This actually may be good for realestate. Would you rather own a hotel or Kellogg Stock trying to raise prices to keep up with soaring costs? The monetary base is growing exponentially. This plus federal stimulus world-wide, low interest rates and shrinking sources of commodities and food will make the next decade the most inflationary of all time. Loss of faith in company financials and management will push people into cash, with rates low, they will start to chase yield, great for oil, gas, other commodity stocks with good yields.

Forget Rabbits' Feet, Buy Horsehead

also long ZINC, one thing I was not too crazy about was announcing an expansion with the price of the metal so low. keep that cash on hand. idiots will be bankrupting this again. wait until the mess sorts out and we see what is coming via recession etc. and world impact.
seemed stupid.
I may get out, buy more of one of my low priced CanRoy funds instead like OGF.UN-TO, at least I get a good div while waiting, even if it is paid in the rapidly falling loonies!

UBS Lowers Gold Expectations Again

People should do their own ground up fundamental reviews of companies and trends before buying any stock for more than a trade. Check out the industry sites. Read Capex detail in annual reports, cost trends, quarterly reports on company investment going forward, look at debt/who holds it/type of debt. LIBOR down will help some cos a lot. Big drop in demand for mining equip will drive discounts for cos that need new loaders/trucks. Oil down will ease site costs. Labor scared of layoffs will reduce high labor costs.
Gold down 30% from peak is not as bad as say PRU down from 110 to 30! so dramatic cost decreases coupled with a floor price in the 700-1000 range, co's. putting on hedges again to protect cash flow and lots of uncertainty will allow industry to recover.

For that 5-10% you should hold for protection in your investments, now is a good entry point.
Suggest CEF which I am looking at, NXG which I own as a cheap option on the whole industry, GFI as a beaten down major with access to cash to acquire/new management in place.
big drop in CN $ will make the CN cos look cheaper to the world looking for cheap assets.