Sirius Roadkill's Comments

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:18:35 -0500

True. Here were Mel's own words shortly after the 12/18 shareholders meeting when rumors of a prepack BK were first selectively leaked . .

During the shareholder meeting, Mr. Karmazin acknowledges that bankruptcy is a possibility if the company cannot reach agreement with lenders, but he says it is unlikely.

“You have to play the hand you’re dealt,” he says in the interview. “Right now, I don’t like my hand. But we’ll play it.”

On Feb 15 05:57 PM wirestripper wrote:

> I think the point is that the raft of news articles warning of bankruptcy
> were based on that one legal admonition. This bankruptcy potential
> was already well known for many trading weeks, and that little admonition
> would have been part of the 8K if they did not get refinancing or
> a bridge loan as they negotiated the debt that is coming due.

>
> This is the reason Egan made his move. The insertion of the disclaimer
> came after the fact and not before so it was moot and not worthy
> of the press it recieved, in my opinion and some others.

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 17:37:44 -0500

john, i agree with your assessment.

On Feb 15 03:23 PM 163888 wrote:

> Sirus Road Kill, I dont think alot of dilution will be part of this
> deal. ThaI will say it again go back and reread the NY Post article
> It says "bridge loan". there would be very little dilution from a
> brige loan. (of course if the article it true) Now will there be
> fees for it yes will they pay some in shares or cash I dont know.
> I just dont see a massive dilution to the stock from a brige loan.
> Once again a bridge loan is not exchanging shares for stock.

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 13:18:28 -0500

amen

On Feb 15 01:03 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> No, they are shutting up now, they dont even want Sirius in the head
> lines anymore...This is what they hope for...The common investor
> looks away from Sirius, thinking BK is inevitable...
> 3 days later they pop in to see if it hit zero yet, and see 1.20
> next to it...No stories from the WSJ or the AP appear anywhere about
> this stock.
> They have to keep it out of the news next week, or people will notice
> the SP jump. No bad news, then there is NO NEWS.

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:27:27 -0500

thank you sl62 . . . well put.

and I add, was it really necessary for him to tear-up lottery tickets?

maybe he should have done more "homework" before proclaiming a $5 share price

lets go back a little further, say pre-Stern, when cramer had an afternoon radio gig on 92.3 k-rock and continually pounded sirius day-after-day (little conflict of interest there?)

lets remember right after stern, when jim proclaimed that "HD Radio" was the nex big thing and satellite radio had no future (HD what?)

lets remember jim tongue kissing his buddies everyday over at goldman sachs (oh yeah, thats right, they had a big piece of the converts and had a vested interest in shorting the common)

now old jimmie really luved his boyz over at GS cuz they were whispering sweet nothings in his ear. and jim and erin burnett had a real giggle fest with each other and their beloved GS.

that was until GS downgraded GENERAL ELECTRIC. What? how dare they? they must not have the right guys working over there anymore
(for those who aren't aware, GE is the parent of CNBC and jeff Imult is basically Cramer's boss; get it?)

cramer is playing the same game with retail investors he played as a hedgie.

he is not a friend of the common man as he professes. the sooner people stop the idol worship and tune him out the better off they will be.

cramer is the smartest man in the room. just ask him.

On Feb 15 12:07 PM sl62 wrote:

> airman...
>
> I just wanted to respectfully respond with my opinion about your
> post on the other article about Cramer. All anyone has to do is watch
> but a few episodes of Mad Money to realize Jim Cramer is a jester.
> His show is based entirely on entertaining buyers and sellers of
> common stock. Sure, he will be right on some calls, but mainly he
> is wrong. Why? Because that is the case with ANYBODY trying to anticipate
> the market. That's why his opinion of the overall market changes
> everyday. He has not once stuck to any opinion he has given. First,
> it was the fortress 4 banks. Then it was the fortress 5. Finally,
> all he said he would trust is No Trust. He said we would head into
> a depression if TARP wasn't passed. Then it was passed and he said
> TARP is the reason we still might head into a depression. Hs calls
> on SIRI were abominable. And I would offer that most people who have
> taken his advice, are right now mostly underwater, waiting for their
> cost basis to come back around. All his sound effects are ridiculous.
> His hype is insane. All distractions to a "real investor". His goal
> is to sell his books, keep his ratings high and maintain his self-appointed
> status of pied piper of the stock market--which he is not.
>
> As far as SIRI goes. As cos1000 said, he was the one who told the
> world about the hedge....when Mel never would have on his appearance.
> However Mel never denied it and he agreed with it under his breath.
> Here's the problem. Just because Cramer know the SP was going down
> and we didn't believe it...NO ONE knew just how far. No one knew
> that it would have to go all the way down as it has. So listening
> to Cramer so you could properly allocate your share buy, is pure
> conjecture (unless you yourself had a crystal ball). It was NEVER
> a foregone conclusion the SP would touch .04 in AH. There were many
> other circumstances in play with this besides Cramer saying the stock
> will become worthless. To further support that thesis, it is known
> that Cramer disbelieves in any stock under 1.00 and deems them "worthless".
> So there is your misnomer. To Cramer an SP is worthless whether it's
> .90 or .09. And some of us out here know that's untrue.

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 11:15:36 -0500

dilution doesn't scare me one bit. we've already paid for it; it's more than baked-in at this point

for a down'n dirty perspective, take projected pfcf for '09 and apply a 1X next year's growth rate multiple . . . then divide at current dilution, at 75% dilution and at full dilution . . . I can live with that sp for '09 . . . but we have got to show qtr-to-qtr reports that are on target to meet projections!

2 news angles I see in coming days:

1.) shareholders suffer massive dilution (like that's really news)

2.) siri kicks debt-can down the road

Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius

Sun, 15 Feb 2009 11:06:58 -0500

good info cos . . thanks! I know researching this stuff can be pretty time consuming. much appreciated here.

news flow is dead hence deal announcement is imminent . . just hope the media doesn't try to spin the dilution angle, which I know they will (enter Cramer stage left).

On Feb 15 10:45 AM cos1000 wrote:

> To fill the time I did do a little digging about DTV and their financial
> condition from their last 10Q for the period ending 9/10/08. Might
> as well get to know who this White Knight is and whether they really
> are in a position to help.....
>
> 1. Their Cash & Cash equivalents went from $1.08B on 12/31/07,
> to $2.99B on 9/31/08.
> 2. Y O Y Revenues went from $12.4B to $14.4B
> 3. Most of their increase in COH came from increasing its LTD position
> from $3.4B to $5.8B. None of this debt is due until 2013 and beyond.
>
> 5. Net income for the company gone from 1.1B to 1.2B YoY.
> 6. DTV has a $500M Revolving credit facility that is fully available
> for operations as needed or Strategic Investments.
>
> It would appear that DTV is capable, simply by using its $500M for
> Strategic Investment, to assist in helping to fund Sirius Xm's debt.
> I am much more encouraged after looking at DTV's financial statements
> than I was when I looked at DISH and Ergen's position.

Sirius XM: Working on Debt, But Not Out of the Woods

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 12:38:36 -0500

relmor/sl62/asm/connor

once the bridge-loan arrangement is announced and formalized, which will definitely include an announcement that the May bank debt has also been restructured, the news cycle will shift to a new headline on the order of "Malone Rescues Siri, Investors Face Massive Dilution"

I guarantee the above. Copy & paste this post somewhere.

They will totally ignore that the dilution has been baked-into the share price since NOVEMBER. They will totally ignore the positive Q4 earnings . . . they will continue to write scare pieces.

Please keep posting the links to these scare-pieces here.

One-by-one we will dismantle the drive-by media and it WILL be personal, the same way Charlie made it personal with Mel . . the guilty must suffer!

On Feb 14 12:09 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> YOu guys are missing out on yahoo message board.
> There you get the best and most outrageous angles on what the bashers
> have as ammo.
> They are still on the BK thing..
> Bashers are drying up over there..
> Down to a core of about 4 of them now..
> And get this...
> One just posted a bogus article written by the washington post..Citing
> authors name and everything. He just committed secruities fraud,
> and he doesnt even know it. Around 100 people just reported him to
> the post and the SEC..
> I am happy to report the bashers have NOTHING to even comment on
> today. They are even giving in on the bridge loan saying its just
> a temporary fix, and they will file in may now!!!
> HAHHAHAHAHAHHAH
> I love it.
> This is looking good so far..
> Almost 16 hours since the news broke, and no retractions or other
> headlines denying this news. 2 days to go...

Sirius XM: Working on Debt, But Not Out of the Woods

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 11:01:44 -0500

To the Real James J. Cramer:

Hey Jim, just saw some more drive-by reporting over at your website . . you need to tighten-up the editorial control over there and stop the drive-by reporting.

You see Jim, there's a certain pumpkin farm in Hunterdon County, NJ that is getting a pretty nice tax break for a bogus farming operation.

See Jim, it works like this. . . when someone gets a property tax subsidy for a bogus Gentlemen's farm, your neighbors have to reach into their pockets to make up that difference ... Christie Whitman tried it Jim, but then she got caught. Ya see? And I didn't even need to work a hedge fund to figure out that math, right?

So, we're pretty much done here. I think you get the message. I don't expect this will have to go any further.

BOOYAH Jim.

Mel, this is another of my many gifts to you. As long as the mainstream media continues to misreport this story I will be sending you little gifts like this everyday . . . drip, drip, drip.

Perhaps some of the other media outlets will become more judicious in their reporting . . . we will see. Perhaps they will soon understand how their erroneous and misleading reports effect the personal lives of shareholders . . .

Sirius XM: Working on Debt, But Not Out of the Woods

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:40:33 -0500

Note to Charlie Ergen:

Now Charlie . . . you were not very nice to our CEO Mel Karmazin in making his personal home phone number public. Imagine all of the aggravation and grief that your disrespectful act caused Mel and his family.

How would YOU like it if someone did that to YOU . . . or if someone were to stage a parade in front of your personal residence because the address was published on the internet. I bet YOU wouldn't like it very much.

Here's my advice Charlie . . . take your convertible bonds, go home and live to fight another day. This one ain't worth the personal aggravation.

Surely you don't need the same level of aggravation you exposed Mel to 4 years ago when you publicly displayed his home phone # to your TV subscribers, right?

I mean come'on, whats a $175 mil between friends? A simple public apology to Mel would also be helpful in healing these old wounds . . .

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:34:29 -0500

right. but they might be light on the $175 if you factor-in cash reserve requirements from the other debt .

Restructuring other debt might lower the reserve which would free-up the needed $175 . . .

On Feb 13 03:29 PM mogami_99 wrote:

> Hi, If they have 175mil for Feb then Ergen has nothing. The terms
> of the debt are Sirius will deposit the balance in 3rd party account
> by certain time on 17 Feb. 3rd party then waits for holder of bonds
> to collect. Once Sirius makes the deposit on time their obligation
> is fullfilled. If they have 175 million then they are fine. If not
> and they do not obtain it by 17 Feb then all the other deals default
> right along with the Feb debt. (it is in the wording of all these
> bonds and warrants)
> too bad companies are not required to always post their bank accounts.
>

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:29:53 -0500

more money in the coffers to take out Ergen . . .

On Feb 13 03:24 PM mogami_99 wrote:

> Hi, I am now a subscriber. Just signed up for the internet option.
> The music sounds CD quality to me but I must admit I have a severe
> hearing loss from military service.

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:22:18 -0500

I think homer may have this one right too . . . next announcement will be that the May bank debt has been restructured contingent upon paying-off the Feb converts.

I wonder how any of the restructuring would/will effect the current cash reserve requirements (which we still have been unable to nail down); I wonder if that could free-up additional cash to take-out Ergen?

On Feb 13 03:15 PM cos1000 wrote:

> We need one more piece of good news before COB or else we'll probably
> just stick around here between .10 - .11

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:13:31 -0500

what has to scare you with the media is when the coverage is this bad on a topic you actually know something about . . . imagine how much mis/dis information we are getting daily on topics where we have no clue

it used to be "don't believe everything you read in the paper." now its don't believe anything you read

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:08:15 -0500

and don't forget . .. "They're Going Bankrupt on Tuesday"

oh, and did they mention that "They're Going Bankrupt on Tuesday?"

On Feb 13 03:03 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> I went back and reread all todays articles about Sirius
> Noticed key diction and phrases, etc.
> Basically here is the main steam medias message to YOU, the Sirius
> stockholder today.
> Regardless of what you read as facts, you are a huge risktaker for
> being in this stock, and probably not very smart. You should sell
> your shares immediately to retain some sense of pride in your total
> embarrassement as an investment..Buying shares here would be downright
> stupid.
> About what they said..I just summed it up for everyone..
> Dont worry, no charge as usual.

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:58:00 -0500

it's pretty unbelievable how close we were in our hypothetical discussion from last night

On Feb 13 02:47 PM cos1000 wrote:

> .1099 and its not even 3 pm yet.......... what are they gonna do???
> This is a whole lot more interesting than Tuesday and Wednesday,
> and Fear was in the air...... people were saying by to each other
> ..... and Fear was in the air.

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:32:11 -0500

Thomson Reuters just moved up their rating from "Neutral" to "Outperform"

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:23:37 -0500

Hey, could someone put up the full WSJ article update from 2:08 PM today?

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:30:17 -0500

good maneuvering! nothing wrong with a few small victories here and there.

I would be deathly afraid to do any side-trading right now. the last hour for me will be purely spectator sport . . . my $2.0660 avg might sound high . . . but not considering where I was when I started.

lets see what happens at 3:00

On Feb 13 01:17 PM cos1000 wrote:

> I had a sell on the 7500 sh at .11. I didn't think it would get there
> until later and I got taken out. I bought 8900 back at .0925 and
> will hold taking the additional shares where ever it goes from here.
> Took the extra shares instead of the money given the news pending......
> Our discussion last night had me put the limit order in at .11 instead
> of .12 so thinking these things out ahead of time really does help.
> 1400 sh is nothing here but where I first bout into this company
> it was a decent investment. Ah to be back at $2.70 a share........

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:09:46 -0500

damn, it's tough to get that image out of my mind now . .

On Feb 13 01:03 PM sl62 wrote:

> SR...
>
> Oh yeah, JB works...

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:04:38 -0500

thank you cos, you are a man of impeccable taste . . .

now, what will you do today at 3:00PM? same discussion we had yesterday but with the existing news flow as it stands . . . and an assumption that there will likely be no short covering today in normal hours trading.

will you still take anything off your side-block and reinvest elsewhere or will you stay in a hold through the weekend?

use the same assumption that we are at $0.10 at 3:00 PM on an upward slope and status quo news from here . . . I think the decision is harder now than when we last discussed . . .

On Feb 13 12:51 PM cos1000 wrote:

> That would be a big thumbs up.......

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:47:30 -0500

would julia boorstin fit the lipstick criteria?

would work for me!

On Feb 13 12:18 PM sl62 wrote:

> guys... (look familiar?)...convert news just got us back to exactly
> where we were for the last few months. So imminent BK is now once
> again out of pricing. Now we should hold right here while all wait
> until definitive news..either this PM, over the weekend. If over
> the weekend, this thing could open at .50 on Tuesday (if good news).

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:29:22 -0500

lol

On Feb 13 11:22 AM relmar2003 wrote:

> Up over 100 percent from low now...Wheres short and stubby and that
> other guy today? I have some crow for them...fresh out of the oven
> too..

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 10:59:08 -0500

Get ready Charlie . . . it's payback time! Mel, if you're out there somewhere reading, I will have a little gift for you later today . . . hint . . . you will be able to call up Charlie and tell him that "paybacks a b$%^#!

First Mel, take care of FEB as I know you will . . . then the gift comes!

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 10:53:18 -0500

amen Relmor! plus I have a little something up my sleeve for chuckie later today, after the Liberty deal is announced, just as a little gift to Mel . . . it will be a surprise. I will post it here first

and btw, the Liberty deal is done. just waiting for the ink to dry. they are not convening a Board meeting for fun. The Board already knows the structure. This is a rubber stamp vote . . . Mel already took the straw vote last nite.

On Feb 13 10:41 AM relmar2003 wrote:

> If Liberty bails out Sirius Ill buy 100 shares to offer my gratitude....

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:43:18 -0500

early day tomorrow . . am turning in for the nite; will catch-up with any replies on 2/13

"Give us Liberty Media or death by a Thousand Cuts"

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:39:32 -0500

yup. it sorta proved-out Einsteins' quanta theory which he published when he was in his 20's but later disavowed for the rest of his life because it turned Newtonian physics upside down. Very heavy stuff. Raises many deep philosophical questions . . too many.

On Feb 12 09:31 PM 163888 wrote:

> Sirius Roadkill, I am the one with the lower case "j" and all the
> sarcasm. I did that so I was not confused with the other "Johns".
>
>
> Are you talking about the show that talked about "string theory"
> and how there are really 7 or is it 8 dimensions now. It seemed they
> added dimensions as they needed them to corrispond to their theory.

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:27:49 -0500

Relmor . . . go over to SiriusBuzz and read the homer985 rebuttals to this article; they are fairly compelling.

The Malone cash infusion looks to be the answer right now; Reuters just confirmed that they are still in discussions. I feel something workable will get done there. That they are still talking after all this time suggests to me that they MIGHT be ironing-out details and COULD have already reached an agreement in principal.

How long can you just sit around a room and talk. UBS must be reading documents at this point.

I'm keeping my eye on the newswires . . .

On Feb 12 08:30 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Maybe Clayton told Ergen what they were planning, and bought up XM
> debt on purpse...To wrestle control of XM holdings or block this
> attempt...Leverage...H... might just want a cheap buy in, or use
> of equipment...

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:16:21 -0500

john . . . have been watching more on PBS lately; hate the commercials on reg tv. caught a good one on string theory relative to einstein's quanta theory . . . was real mind bender; think it was Nova. have watched it like 3 times now. it's too deep . . . the whole idea of everything collapsing in on itself.

I'd have to go back and re-read that whole dust-up again. I can't remember what he said in that original personal email cuz that thread was so long.

May I say that it was great entertainment while it lasted . . . it was like a virtual bare-knuckles John L Sullivan vs James J Corbett 50 rounder. I was waiting for Charles to hop on a plane to Michigan. That was a real beaut! Took my mind off the stock for 10 minutes

There are so many "john's" over there now that I am no longer sure which one is you . . . there was a blue-color "johnjojo" in the forums the other day.

On Feb 12 08:23 PM 163888 wrote:

> Sirius Roadkill, I see you are back here from Sirius Buzz, Have you
> seen any interesting history channel shows lately, My favorite is
> "The Universe". Also I see you cought that thread I had for Charles.
> As a impartial person did that email he sent to me seem to be put
> in a nice guy kind of way or would you taken offence to it also.

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 20:07:27 -0500

john, yup. looks like the BK option will render no relief . . . back to the Siri/DTV/Echo triumverate

no new news as I post

will check back in a few hours

On Feb 12 07:54 PM 163888 wrote:

> I have to agree with cos1000, here I dont think it is possibl;e to
> just take XMSR into bankruptcy and come out as freash as a daisy.
> First of all part of that 360 million left in COH was some of XMSRs.
> Second there were as already said agreements with the debt holders
> to extend the XMSR debt after merger. I am sure those carry some
> kind of connection to SIRI assets. I am not saying it could not be
> done, just that it would not be as easy as this article thinks it
> would be or that SIRIXM would come out of it as clean as the article
> makes it out to.

Sirius: Is Chapter 11 Good for Shareholders?

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 20:04:29 -0500

agreed. the xm bankruptcy topic is rendered moot

now back to Ergen v Karmazin-Malone . . . which is where the news flow is right now . . . I still feel positive that Malone will provide the needed infusion and that Kraft will influence some type of relief . . . I am taking a break for a few hours but will check back later for any developments

keep an eye on the siri ticker at the google business page . . . new articles are posted pretty quickly there to the top right of the page

On Feb 12 07:53 PM cos1000 wrote:

> yeah I saw it......... still wasn't really news anyways IMO. The
> Karmaze, Malone, Ergin, dynamics are more relevant along with some
> relief from MLB escrow on 3/1...... As far as my main investment
> I cried over that already with some losses I'll be able to take over
> the next decade or two..... That's why I am trying to play this piece
> I bought down here to take as I go or would with any other Investment.
> Get a two 'fa take half...... I have another lot of 40K sh that I
> have averaged in at .145 before this recent nightmare began.... so
> I need to take what I can while I can and move on....... so far this
> company and stock has never failed to disappoint...............