JPDD

Market Death Spiral Continues

<i>A fall below this level will likely trigger massive selling.</i>

As opposed to the moderate and measured selling that we've experienced up to now.

wtf? Down 50% and you think this is mild?

Was Q4 2008 the Worst of It?

<i>Alt A and Option Arms are going to reset in a massive wave very soon.</i>

For instance, look at the data here:
socializedlosses.blogs...

State Budgets Spiraling out of Control

I think that the table omits an important stat: budget gap per capita, which represents the ability of a state to close the gap.

You will find that many other states are in big trouble.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

Why do you consider shadowstats any more calibrated than the gov't stats?

The Consequences of Another 10% Housing Price Decline

<i>Those who hope that this would make homes more affordable need to think carefully. If home prices do decline by this much, it is likely that they still won't be able to afford them as there is a good chance that they lose their jobs,</i>

It simply does not matter what we "hope" for. Anything that can't go on forever, won't go on forever: And house price-to-income ratios were (and still are) unsustainable.

So prepare. To quote our oh-so-esteemed US president, "This sucker is going down."

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

"I guess it comes down to whether you think there is more inflaiton or less inflation than the government reports. I believe the government consistently under-reports inflation."

My view is different yet similar to yours: The government has been understating it, but that it started when COLA was invented. That provided a huge financial incentive to play games.

BTW, Thanks for the article Scott.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

[Because he is counting inflation by the Pre-Clinton era measurements before the government started manipulating CPI with "hedonics," which pretty much allows them to say inflation rate is anything they want.]

I realize that. Perhaps I should have asked it like this: Why do you think that the pre-Clinton stats were any less manipulated or politicized? Do you think that the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations were above manipulating those statistics?

As near as I can tell, shadowstats is perpetuating a different set of manipulations.

Some Thoughts on Leveraged ETFs

I find it noteworthy that the list of "Principle Risks" has changed in the prospectus over time. Note the addition of "Inverse correlation risk" (for example:

From today's prospectus:
<i>ProShares UltraShort Financials is subject to the
following principal risks:
• Aggressive Investment Technique Risk, Concentration
Risk, Correlation Risk, Counterparty Risk,
Credit Risk, Early Close/Trading Halt Risk, Equity
Risk, Inverse Correlation Risk, Investment Company
and Exchange Traded Fund Risk, Liquidity
Risk, Market Price Variance Risk, Market Risk,
Non-Diversification Risk, Portfolio Turnover Risk
and Short Sale Risk.</i>

From Oct 07:

<i>The UltraShort Financials ProShares is subject to
the following principal risks:
• Aggressive Investment Technique Risk, Correlation
Risk, Counterparty Risk, Concentration Risk,
Credit Risk, Early Close/Trading Halt Risk, Equity
Risk, Liquidity Risk, Market Price Variance Risk,
Market Risk, and Non-diversification Risk.</i>

There are diffs in other paragraphs as well.

Back to the 'Bear'

It sounds like you've confused "bull market" with "highly volatile market".

Will Obama Be Better Than Bush for Stocks?

S&P Jan 22, 2001 = 1350
S&P Jan 20, 2009 = 850

Pretty low bar for Obama to meet.

Obama's TARP 2 Signals an End to Mark to Market

<i>The health of our financial system should never be tied so closely to short term real estate fluctuations. </i>

You are correct, but for the wrong reason. The assets in question were incorrectly marked-to-model during the unsustainable real-estate <b>rise</b>...

Now, you can choose not to let those values fall on the balance sheet, but that doesn't mean that any sensible investor is going to believe your accounting.

Paulson's Poker Face: A Bluff by Going All In

"I can damn well guarantee they won’t vote them back in if they don’t pass legislation and the markets collapse sub-10,000 on the DJIA and S&P 500."

And what do you think will happen when they pass the bill, and the DJIA drops, say, just after the election?

Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party

Hahahahahahahahaha.

MER, WB, WM, C, and that's just for starters.

Time To Bail Out WaMu?

who's Tim?

Ignore Stock Market Volatility

<i>Right now we're in a William Goldman market: nobody knows anything.</i>

And just how does this differs from every other day?
I mean, other than those pretending they know something.