superal

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

Agree with Fitzman here...another issue to throw on the "pile" to back up the argument: Consider the size of the existing car fleet and the amount of time it will take to replace the fleet such that any fuel-efficient technology will begin to make an impact to the avg fuel economy of the entire fleet.

Ignoring the rest-of-the-world, and focusing on the US:
Fleet size: ~240 million vehicles
MPG (miles-per-gallon): 22mpg
Annual Replacement Rate: ~6% (14 million vehicles)
Source: www.bts.gov/publicatio...

Note that under present repressed economic conditions the Replacement Rate is probably closer to 3%, but in order to be conservative (i.e. to speed up replacement of the fleet), we'll say 6%. Thus, at a Replacement Rate of 6% it takes 18 years to replace all of the vehicles in our fleet.

To put this in perspective, if 100% of the new vehicles offered for sale today were hybrid vehicles that got 50mpg, it would take 18 years for the entire fleet to move from 22mpg to 50mpg. (halving our oil demand over that time frame)

What this demonstrates is that, as an economy, we have very little short-term control over our demand for oil. (short-term defined here as anything within a 20-yr time horizon)

This factor combined with the supply-side, and political factors alluded to already, spells one thing: P-A-I-N

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