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It is not over yet.
Aug 15 09:11 am
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All Comments by hedgeman »The Euro's Long Run Is Finally Over [View article]
EURJPY 162.00, watch for daily close bellow. We should see a fast drop to 150 if that happens. In current conditions it is my belief that USDJPY will take more heat and this should stop (reverse) the rising USD. Long EURJPY positions (used as proxy long commodities) are relatively large and part of EURUSD selling was unwinding the EUR part of these position. The rise of USD happened much faster then anticapted and USDJPY is expensive longer term above 110.00. Providing defense of 162.00 is succesfull I do not exclude a rally to 115.00 but there the fun is defenitely over.
As for the EURUSD... it will take 2-3 quarters and final spike to 1.69 in 2009 (65.xx in USD index) before it will finally be over. Important levels (short term 1.4630), longer term 1.36-1.42 area will serve as accumulation area. Since momentum is extremely strong picking a bottom before we see a higher weekly close is not advisable.