hedgeman's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/238067/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/117775-the-end-of-gold-part-two?source=feed#comment-372570 372570
Anyone trying to go long without a gigantic stop loss looses at least part of his position before it moves higher. Weak longs are washed away therefore limiting supply higher up. Since it is hard to make money as a leveraged bet on gold usually this means it is not over yet. I also like the monthly charts.

I do not pretend I know why markets move where they move and will therefore choose not to "analyse" further. KISS (keep it simple stupid) shows it made a brake and has room to the uspide on a daily close above 935.]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 12:53:00 -0500
Anyone trying to go long without a gigantic stop loss looses at least part of his position before it moves higher. Weak longs are washed away therefore limiting supply higher up. Since it is hard to make money as a leveraged bet on gold usually this means it is not over yet. I also like the monthly charts.

I do not pretend I know why markets move where they move and will therefore choose not to "analyse" further. KISS (keep it simple stupid) shows it made a brake and has room to the uspide on a daily close above 935.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114024-five-new-forces-to-drive-gold-higher?source=feed#comment-352135 352135
If you just look at the market with no bias (bias meaning believing something moves due to the factors we have identified) it is consolidating. It reminds me of the time EURUSD first hit 1.367 and then fell back almost 2000 pips and consolidated until majority of short term money lost patience with it. We all know what happened later on...

So a detached view shows a very high probability gold is at a similar point in time. It will most probably go higher to some 1200$ level in 2009 where everyone will buy the 2000$/oz idea. That will be a turning point. From there it can again consolidate or move up parabolically. 1200$ coincides with a long term DX target of 65.xx and should be hit for the cycles to reach their decision points. 1200$ gold and 65 DX is where USA empire will be in front of historic jury. The vote is yet unclear.

Disclosure: Long and not in a hurry, would decrease exposure on daily close bellow 825 by 66%.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 05:00:40 -0500
If you just look at the market with no bias (bias meaning believing something moves due to the factors we have identified) it is consolidating. It reminds me of the time EURUSD first hit 1.367 and then fell back almost 2000 pips and consolidated until majority of short term money lost patience with it. We all know what happened later on...

So a detached view shows a very high probability gold is at a similar point in time. It will most probably go higher to some 1200$ level in 2009 where everyone will buy the 2000$/oz idea. That will be a turning point. From there it can again consolidate or move up parabolically. 1200$ coincides with a long term DX target of 65.xx and should be hit for the cycles to reach their decision points. 1200$ gold and 65 DX is where USA empire will be in front of historic jury. The vote is yet unclear.

Disclosure: Long and not in a hurry, would decrease exposure on daily close bellow 825 by 66%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112931-could-the-pound-sterling-be-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine?source=feed#comment-343971 343971
Disclosure: Long JPY ag EUR and USD, short EURCHF, short DX, long GC.]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 05:06:41 -0500
Disclosure: Long JPY ag EUR and USD, short EURCHF, short DX, long GC.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111584-artificial-u-s-dollar-rally-is-coming-to-an-end?source=feed#comment-334548 334548
It is easy to see a hidden subsidy to banks when FED purchases the Tbonds and Tnotes and banks realise great profits and hence improve their capital base. FED will buy the top (quantitative easing) and there is a direct cost of abt. 150 billion which will be banks "improved capital". TARP is a smokescreen, the bigger transfers take place between the FED and its owners.

After FED buys long end from the banks then it will be time for some 10-30 steepeners as a strategic longer term view based on simple fundamental reasoning.]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 10:18:25 -0500
It is easy to see a hidden subsidy to banks when FED purchases the Tbonds and Tnotes and banks realise great profits and hence improve their capital base. FED will buy the top (quantitative easing) and there is a direct cost of abt. 150 billion which will be banks "improved capital". TARP is a smokescreen, the bigger transfers take place between the FED and its owners.

After FED buys long end from the banks then it will be time for some 10-30 steepeners as a strategic longer term view based on simple fundamental reasoning.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111307-the-yen-is-on-fire-gold-and-silver-continue-their-breakout?source=feed#comment-332743 332743
EURCHF broke 1.5550 and we went short the brake. Today we also open SP500 shorts (we hold 950-970 are as potential top and will accumulate shorts above 900). Our view is down till March09 and then 6month of stability - rising equity markets. However tempting it is to short UST it is still too risky at the moment.]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:28:59 -0500
EURCHF broke 1.5550 and we went short the brake. Today we also open SP500 shorts (we hold 950-970 are as potential top and will accumulate shorts above 900). Our view is down till March09 and then 6month of stability - rising equity markets. However tempting it is to short UST it is still too risky at the moment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110594-will-we-see-a-big-upward-move-in-gold?source=feed#comment-328792 328792
Bubble "order" - Equity - Realestate - Commodity - Precious Metals

Give consumers credit and convince them something they hold is rapidly increasing in price and they will start to spend. A jumpstart so to say.

Inflation - USD falling - Deflation debates will become irrelevant once the FED decides that cheapest reflation is through gold.

But one of conspiracy lines goes like this : there is no physical gold left at the FED, China holds it somewhere as collateral against US Treasuries... :)

There should be a clear distinction between what should be done and what will be done. ECB and EU almost never do what they are supposed to do due to their organisational inneficencies. USA should lead the way.

And this time they will do it. Nothing worse for politicians then a bunch of workers staying at home (after a few days of family life a night out with union guys, after a few beers you can spark a riot easily...) Look at the Greece example.

Something should be done fast to alter perceptions and the most effective way ( - cheapest) is to push gold sharply higher.

Disclaimer: will buy brake of 835 on a daily closing basis for XAUUSD.]]> Sun, 14 Dec 2008 08:42:08 -0500
Bubble "order" - Equity - Realestate - Commodity - Precious Metals

Give consumers credit and convince them something they hold is rapidly increasing in price and they will start to spend. A jumpstart so to say.

Inflation - USD falling - Deflation debates will become irrelevant once the FED decides that cheapest reflation is through gold.

But one of conspiracy lines goes like this : there is no physical gold left at the FED, China holds it somewhere as collateral against US Treasuries... :)

There should be a clear distinction between what should be done and what will be done. ECB and EU almost never do what they are supposed to do due to their organisational inneficencies. USA should lead the way.

And this time they will do it. Nothing worse for politicians then a bunch of workers staying at home (after a few days of family life a night out with union guys, after a few beers you can spark a riot easily...) Look at the Greece example.

Something should be done fast to alter perceptions and the most effective way ( - cheapest) is to push gold sharply higher.

Disclaimer: will buy brake of 835 on a daily closing basis for XAUUSD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109582-own-gold-time-to-fold?source=feed#comment-323578 323578
And here the large quantity of gold and its wide dispersion among different types of stakeholders around the world is the easiest way to increase perceived wealth (and if you arm twist banks which government now owns to start lending again) and subsequently consumption. A sharp increase in the price of gold in the next few days would have the desired psychological effect as we approach xmas.

Disclosure: Stopped from gold longs last Friday.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 07:52:36 -0500
And here the large quantity of gold and its wide dispersion among different types of stakeholders around the world is the easiest way to increase perceived wealth (and if you arm twist banks which government now owns to start lending again) and subsequently consumption. A sharp increase in the price of gold in the next few days would have the desired psychological effect as we approach xmas.

Disclosure: Stopped from gold longs last Friday.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=feed#comment-322462 322462
As for Comex and the bacwardation. Could be some commodity funds are exiting without looking at the optimal price (liquidation in a hurry) and the rebound that will follow will produce yet another great opportunity for "the naked shorts" bunch to have another short term party. Our target for 2009 (when USA default story picks up speed) is more modest at around 1200-1300 level. ]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 13:57:49 -0500
As for Comex and the bacwardation. Could be some commodity funds are exiting without looking at the optimal price (liquidation in a hurry) and the rebound that will follow will produce yet another great opportunity for "the naked shorts" bunch to have another short term party. Our target for 2009 (when USA default story picks up speed) is more modest at around 1200-1300 level. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101416-three-possible-explanations-for-the-dollar-s-strength?source=feed#comment-288508 288508 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 08:48:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98693-stocks-plunge-dollar-surges?source=feed#comment-274860 274860
Disclosure: Short USDJPY and EURJPY. Short DX.
]]> Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:30:00 -0400
Disclosure: Short USDJPY and EURJPY. Short DX.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98481-bailout-bill-passes-what-happens-now?source=feed#comment-273291 273291
As to the US baby boomers coming to retirement, they will probably see their 401k's severely depleted...

Nationalisation of homes in foreclosure and another check to average Joe (with a defined spending rules: pay mortgage and debt and of course spend some otherwise Chinese and other Asian nations will refuse to buy the newly issued US gov. debt) would in our opinion be a much better solution.

For a guage of what the real economy globally is doing Baltic index (BDI) is still appropriate measure and it is showing severe slowdown (not just lower oil prices).

The bailout bill is enough for GS and MS to stay afloat and if we drop the charade this is what the intention of Mr. Paulson was in the first place. Be sure GS and MS (if they survive) will reload equity positions from retired people who will sell their 401k holdings near bottom and this will mark the bottom of the cycle. This is the plan however the eternal question whether it is really different this time still hangs over us.

It is different and as risk models showed in Aug07 once every 200 million years events can happen. So what we should really think about is how to avoid the global capitalism avoid transition into chinese style capitalism in order to survive. This is not a once in a 100 years event, it is an event unseen so far.

People feel this is a cold, others say pneumonia, few of them say 87 crash was heart stroke and this is cancer. When average Joe realises this is cancer and looses the trust in fiat money, the system will have to change. Let's just hope PEOPLE put the pressure on politicians and really PRESSURE them (PUBLIC PROTESTS) so they will for once listen and not just think about their personal position.

Chinese style of capitalism if not that bad for the Chinese actually at this point in their development cycle. However it would be disastrous in the western world and should be avoided at all cost.]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 05:28:05 -0400
As to the US baby boomers coming to retirement, they will probably see their 401k's severely depleted...

Nationalisation of homes in foreclosure and another check to average Joe (with a defined spending rules: pay mortgage and debt and of course spend some otherwise Chinese and other Asian nations will refuse to buy the newly issued US gov. debt) would in our opinion be a much better solution.

For a guage of what the real economy globally is doing Baltic index (BDI) is still appropriate measure and it is showing severe slowdown (not just lower oil prices).

The bailout bill is enough for GS and MS to stay afloat and if we drop the charade this is what the intention of Mr. Paulson was in the first place. Be sure GS and MS (if they survive) will reload equity positions from retired people who will sell their 401k holdings near bottom and this will mark the bottom of the cycle. This is the plan however the eternal question whether it is really different this time still hangs over us.

It is different and as risk models showed in Aug07 once every 200 million years events can happen. So what we should really think about is how to avoid the global capitalism avoid transition into chinese style capitalism in order to survive. This is not a once in a 100 years event, it is an event unseen so far.

People feel this is a cold, others say pneumonia, few of them say 87 crash was heart stroke and this is cancer. When average Joe realises this is cancer and looses the trust in fiat money, the system will have to change. Let's just hope PEOPLE put the pressure on politicians and really PRESSURE them (PUBLIC PROTESTS) so they will for once listen and not just think about their personal position.

Chinese style of capitalism if not that bad for the Chinese actually at this point in their development cycle. However it would be disastrous in the western world and should be avoided at all cost.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96427-time-to-hedge-dollar-exposure?source=feed#comment-260463 260463 Sun, 21 Sep 2008 03:31:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95564-dollar-shows-resilience-as-safe-haven-currency?source=feed#comment-255177 255177
Disclosure: Short EURJPY and USDJPY.]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:28:37 -0400
Disclosure: Short EURJPY and USDJPY.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95193-whither-the-dollar-currency-trends-and-etfs?source=feed#comment-252725 252725
USD is in correction mode (DX 81.xx target). Still surprisingly fast advance, no corrections, official names can be "felt" in the market action. Don't let behind the doors deals between US and Asia (China) fool you into thinking USD is now fundamentally bid. It is still fundamentally weak however since the latest carnage USD shorts will be more carefull and the rate of descent will be slower. Our target remains DX 65.xx zone, however it is hard to estimate the interval (well it is always hard, harder this time since govie USD bulls do not follow the same investing rules as other players) Best guess at moment 2q 2009....
We still remain JPY bulls (ag. EUR and USD).

Disclosure: short EURJPY and USDJPY]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:14:26 -0400
USD is in correction mode (DX 81.xx target). Still surprisingly fast advance, no corrections, official names can be "felt" in the market action. Don't let behind the doors deals between US and Asia (China) fool you into thinking USD is now fundamentally bid. It is still fundamentally weak however since the latest carnage USD shorts will be more carefull and the rate of descent will be slower. Our target remains DX 65.xx zone, however it is hard to estimate the interval (well it is always hard, harder this time since govie USD bulls do not follow the same investing rules as other players) Best guess at moment 2q 2009....
We still remain JPY bulls (ag. EUR and USD).

Disclosure: short EURJPY and USDJPY]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93506-the-dollar-can-continue-to-rally-despite-the-weak-economy?source=feed#comment-243716 243716
Meanwhile JPY is quietly setting the stage for a rally and JPY will be the winning currency in the 12-18 month frame.

Disclosure: short EURJPY and USDJPY.]]> Tue, 02 Sep 2008 08:03:15 -0400
Meanwhile JPY is quietly setting the stage for a rally and JPY will be the winning currency in the 12-18 month frame.

Disclosure: short EURJPY and USDJPY.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91149-the-euro-s-long-run-is-finally-over?source=feed#comment-231015 231015

EURJPY 162.00, watch for daily close bellow. We should see a fast drop to 150 if that happens. In current conditions it is my belief that USDJPY will take more heat and this should stop (reverse) the rising USD. Long EURJPY positions (used as proxy long commodities) are relatively large and part of EURUSD selling was unwinding the EUR part of these position. The rise of USD happened much faster then anticapted and USDJPY is expensive longer term above 110.00. Providing defense of 162.00 is succesfull I do not exclude a rally to 115.00 but there the fun is defenitely over.

As for the EURUSD... it will take 2-3 quarters and final spike to 1.69 in 2009 (65.xx in USD index) before it will finally be over. Important levels (short term 1.4630), longer term 1.36-1.42 area will serve as accumulation area. Since momentum is extremely strong picking a bottom before we see a higher weekly close is not advisable.
]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 09:11:50 -0400

EURJPY 162.00, watch for daily close bellow. We should see a fast drop to 150 if that happens. In current conditions it is my belief that USDJPY will take more heat and this should stop (reverse) the rising USD. Long EURJPY positions (used as proxy long commodities) are relatively large and part of EURUSD selling was unwinding the EUR part of these position. The rise of USD happened much faster then anticapted and USDJPY is expensive longer term above 110.00. Providing defense of 162.00 is succesfull I do not exclude a rally to 115.00 but there the fun is defenitely over.

As for the EURUSD... it will take 2-3 quarters and final spike to 1.69 in 2009 (65.xx in USD index) before it will finally be over. Important levels (short term 1.4630), longer term 1.36-1.42 area will serve as accumulation area. Since momentum is extremely strong picking a bottom before we see a higher weekly close is not advisable.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90051-forex-wrapup-dollar-benefits-as-traders-focus-on-weak-economies-elsewhere?source=feed#comment-226652 226652
EURJPY is standing on critical support levels, bellow 162.00 it will start to brake USDJPY advance and should provide a temporary relief for the USD bears. Since EURJPY was a long commodity proxy for the past few years it should revisit sub 150 in the first round. Since EURJPY is in a distribution phase for weeks now this commodity corelation seems to be broken however it will return. The move will most probably be very fast after 162 gives way on daily closing basis. This very popular carry trade is the last to brake and since capital is severely depleted by fast moves on other fronts the liquidity will be very poor and will exacerbate the move. If USDJPY brakes above 110.80 on daily closing basis the downmove of EURJPY could stall (for a short while only). Levels to watch are 165.10, 164.45 and 162.00-50 area (here defense is expected).

Long commodity, short equity, short USD and carry trades strategies unwounding on an overcrowded illiquid summer market. Fundamentals have limited impact at present. ]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 06:28:27 -0400
EURJPY is standing on critical support levels, bellow 162.00 it will start to brake USDJPY advance and should provide a temporary relief for the USD bears. Since EURJPY was a long commodity proxy for the past few years it should revisit sub 150 in the first round. Since EURJPY is in a distribution phase for weeks now this commodity corelation seems to be broken however it will return. The move will most probably be very fast after 162 gives way on daily closing basis. This very popular carry trade is the last to brake and since capital is severely depleted by fast moves on other fronts the liquidity will be very poor and will exacerbate the move. If USDJPY brakes above 110.80 on daily closing basis the downmove of EURJPY could stall (for a short while only). Levels to watch are 165.10, 164.45 and 162.00-50 area (here defense is expected).

Long commodity, short equity, short USD and carry trades strategies unwounding on an overcrowded illiquid summer market. Fundamentals have limited impact at present. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88866-the-u-s-dollar-a-new-accord?source=feed#comment-222603 222603 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 15:49:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88866-the-u-s-dollar-a-new-accord?source=feed#comment-222596 222596
There were times when interest rate differentials weren't the most important factor in the FX world. History will repeat itself. I feel the fixation with interest rate differentials between major currencies is a direct consequence of the lax credit practices. And we all know this story is already unfolding.

The case for 5% up for the USD measured against a basket of other US trading partners (6 month time frame) is due to the lagg in slowdown in economic activitity between US and other economic blocks.

]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 15:44:06 -0400
There were times when interest rate differentials weren't the most important factor in the FX world. History will repeat itself. I feel the fixation with interest rate differentials between major currencies is a direct consequence of the lax credit practices. And we all know this story is already unfolding.

The case for 5% up for the USD measured against a basket of other US trading partners (6 month time frame) is due to the lagg in slowdown in economic activitity between US and other economic blocks.

]]>