Exponent

Getting Ready for... Anything

I disagree that the market warned us. The 2000 bust was well overdue given the record p/e's, but valuations going into this bust were already reasonable. Now we're at the lowest p/e's since the 1980s. I think that bodes well for the next decade of investors.

Emerging Markets: So Much for 'Decoupling'

Economically, these countries did "decouple". Virtually all of them have maintained positive GDP growth while the U.S. and Europe have gone into recession. However, in the equities markets, prices have dropped much further than they have here, because we in or worsening recession are seen as the safe haven. When the dust finally settles, the emerging economies will be the ones with the healthy earnings growth and reasonable valuations.

Berkshire Hathaway: Like a Kid in a Candy Store

BRK is the only individual stock I own, and probably the only one I will ever own. I'm less enthusiastic with the current P/E, but I don't buy anything unless I'd be comfortable holding it for life. The consistent market-beating performance, low beta, and low r^2 make it an ideal core holding.

Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio

Hey Geoff,

I enjoyed the original article and am glad to see the portfolio held up well under pressure. I think this sort of statistical approach is much more useful the majority of analysis on this site, which is too often based on emotion and short term trends. Have you tried using this methodology to build a portfolio that places more emphasis on return and less on standard deviation? For the long-term buy and hold investors who have time to wait out the swings, such a portfolio would be preferable. Thanks for a great article!