Seeking Advice's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/238435/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/172919-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-756877 756877 I think you said it pretty succinctly, "So the liquidity bubble continues to expand and investors are lovin’ it. It is what it is folks, enjoy it while you can." I've kept invested in the market (albeit at lower levels than 2006 or 2007) against my better judgment and feelings but that has proved prudent so far. I remain watchful for signs that either the government is removing liquidity or that investors are getting tired of little signs of real recovery - if that ultimately comes to pass.

Right now, I get the feeling that the only things that matter are that the government says they intend to continue to provide stimulus (1st time home buyer credits and the like) and the Fed indicates that they will keep rates near zero. And for now, maybe that's most of the market... ]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:09:01 -0500 I think you said it pretty succinctly, "So the liquidity bubble continues to expand and investors are lovin’ it. It is what it is folks, enjoy it while you can." I've kept invested in the market (albeit at lower levels than 2006 or 2007) against my better judgment and feelings but that has proved prudent so far. I remain watchful for signs that either the government is removing liquidity or that investors are getting tired of little signs of real recovery - if that ultimately comes to pass.

Right now, I get the feeling that the only things that matter are that the government says they intend to continue to provide stimulus (1st time home buyer credits and the like) and the Fed indicates that they will keep rates near zero. And for now, maybe that's most of the market... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171724-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-747679 747679
I also see that it's more likely for right now that we edge a little higher than moving lower. But, of course, remain vigilant and aware of signs of potential big moves either down or up. ]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:44:23 -0500
I also see that it's more likely for right now that we edge a little higher than moving lower. But, of course, remain vigilant and aware of signs of potential big moves either down or up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166608-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-716074 716074
As a flexible buy-and-holder, I've been sliding up and down on my equity exposure based on apparent risks (which seem high). And while my exposure is lower for sure, fortunately I have not sold off so I've floated along with the rising equity tide. I keep asking myself how long things can continue and then remind myself that the market can stay irrational for a long time, especially if conditions are pressuring it in that direction. I'll keep reading you're comments as part of how I try to stay informed. ]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 07:53:19 -0400
As a flexible buy-and-holder, I've been sliding up and down on my equity exposure based on apparent risks (which seem high). And while my exposure is lower for sure, fortunately I have not sold off so I've floated along with the rising equity tide. I keep asking myself how long things can continue and then remind myself that the market can stay irrational for a long time, especially if conditions are pressuring it in that direction. I'll keep reading you're comments as part of how I try to stay informed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165667-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-710285 710285
But David, for you to join the fray... come on. I get that you're a conservative and it's clear that many of your followers are as well, but as an Independent it just debases the discussion that I look to you for, which is unbiased technical analysis. I have no problem with your witty comments, and look forward to reading your analysis but please I ask you not encourage folks to head down that hole. I need to believe your interpretations of what's going on and what might be happening going forward. I don't want to start questioning your analysis as potentially colored by an ideological bias. ]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:22:11 -0400
But David, for you to join the fray... come on. I get that you're a conservative and it's clear that many of your followers are as well, but as an Independent it just debases the discussion that I look to you for, which is unbiased technical analysis. I have no problem with your witty comments, and look forward to reading your analysis but please I ask you not encourage folks to head down that hole. I need to believe your interpretations of what's going on and what might be happening going forward. I don't want to start questioning your analysis as potentially colored by an ideological bias. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159728-four-problems-undermining-future-american-prosperity?source=feed#comment-660068 660068 I especially like, "Yet outraged Americans seem most concerned about fictions like death panels and government-enforced euthanasia, while clinging to the myth that our current system of selective availability and perverse incentives somehow represents capitalist ideals" and also "What keeps the rest of us content is the illusion that we, too, will be able to game the system someday—as long as the government doesn't interfere."

How true. Many of us have been sold by many special interests that we will be the privaleged few, and that the problem is all these other people who want to change the status quo. Of course, the status quo always benefits primarily those who already have or hold the power - that's why they work so hard to scare the majority from making any changes. It's sad, but still the U.S. is a great nation and will survive this malaise and the special interests. I do feel though that the high standard of living in the U.S. will necessarily get knocked down somewhat, but maybe some humility needed to come our way at some point? ]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:15:54 -0400 I especially like, "Yet outraged Americans seem most concerned about fictions like death panels and government-enforced euthanasia, while clinging to the myth that our current system of selective availability and perverse incentives somehow represents capitalist ideals" and also "What keeps the rest of us content is the illusion that we, too, will be able to game the system someday—as long as the government doesn't interfere."

How true. Many of us have been sold by many special interests that we will be the privaleged few, and that the problem is all these other people who want to change the status quo. Of course, the status quo always benefits primarily those who already have or hold the power - that's why they work so hard to scare the majority from making any changes. It's sad, but still the U.S. is a great nation and will survive this malaise and the special interests. I do feel though that the high standard of living in the U.S. will necessarily get knocked down somewhat, but maybe some humility needed to come our way at some point? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159313-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-655925 655925 @ Dr. O. -- Your commentary almost always veers very political and I often find I disagree with your poltical points though not the economic ones, necessarily.
"...the administration's recent beating in the polls..."? Whether you agree or disagree with their approach, the poll numbers are hardly reflecting any 'beating' as they're approval numbers remain above 50% which is higher than many previous administrations at this point in their term. Perhaps it's wishful thinking on your part. And I've seen no "outright rebellion" of current policies as you describe it, just highly energized partisan fighting that I've seen when any administration tries to redirect policy.

That being said, one can't help but think that the big banks and the government are trying desperately to prop up the markets as we saw during the latter stages of the previous administration (these manipulations are good for whichever party is in power, after all). The temptation is probably too great. For the banks, they're benefitting from trading profits and from having their stock prices rise, while the government benefits from the rise in consumer confidence that results from 401k investments coming back somewhat.

Makes it hard to invest though when fundamentals appear not to matter much. ]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 08:06:26 -0400 @ Dr. O. -- Your commentary almost always veers very political and I often find I disagree with your poltical points though not the economic ones, necessarily.
"...the administration's recent beating in the polls..."? Whether you agree or disagree with their approach, the poll numbers are hardly reflecting any 'beating' as they're approval numbers remain above 50% which is higher than many previous administrations at this point in their term. Perhaps it's wishful thinking on your part. And I've seen no "outright rebellion" of current policies as you describe it, just highly energized partisan fighting that I've seen when any administration tries to redirect policy.

That being said, one can't help but think that the big banks and the government are trying desperately to prop up the markets as we saw during the latter stages of the previous administration (these manipulations are good for whichever party is in power, after all). The temptation is probably too great. For the banks, they're benefitting from trading profits and from having their stock prices rise, while the government benefits from the rise in consumer confidence that results from 401k investments coming back somewhat.

Makes it hard to invest though when fundamentals appear not to matter much. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149837-why-this-is-no-time-for-buy-and-hold?source=feed#comment-596655 596655
It's definitely non-partisan to see and be concerned by the market manipulation going on. This administration (like any other) is not going to stop the big players from pushing the market up (against fundamentals) since it increases general sentiment. This of course also happened during the Bush admin (and probably every other). Maybe it's worse right now with volume so light, because it leaves markets in a position to be easily pushed around. Sooner or later fundamentals come in to play because they have to in the greater scheme. But in the short run, the manipulators (the big time tradin desks) can profit handsomely.
]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 12:19:49 -0400
It's definitely non-partisan to see and be concerned by the market manipulation going on. This administration (like any other) is not going to stop the big players from pushing the market up (against fundamentals) since it increases general sentiment. This of course also happened during the Bush admin (and probably every other). Maybe it's worse right now with volume so light, because it leaves markets in a position to be easily pushed around. Sooner or later fundamentals come in to play because they have to in the greater scheme. But in the short run, the manipulators (the big time tradin desks) can profit handsomely.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148067-friday-outlook-rage-against-the-machine?source=feed#comment-591655 591655 Clearly you DO listen to a lot (maybe too much) of right wing talk radio and after all there is far more of that on the air then left wing talk (though there is both around). I would not be getting worried by the points raised from any highly biased sources, such as "conservative talk". That isn't to say that things are good or that everything being proposed is good. The fact is, like most of us, I really don't know what's right. It could be that the proposed stimulus saved us from doom as some say (not on conservative radio) or it could be that it was a near complete waste of resources because nothing can really be done to stop the giant deleveraging going on right now in the economy.

I think the main problem is that as a society we have overspent, overconsumed, allowed the creation of dangerous poorly understood unregulated debt instruments, failed to create jreal obs or the basis for economic growth and somehow failed to spot all this for more than 2 decades. Now it's come home to roost. This has occured through Republican and Democratic administrations alike back from Reagan who cut taxes but not spending to match, up through Clinton, George W. and now the current administration. Each administration kicked the can down the road as best they could. I ]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 08:22:47 -0400 Clearly you DO listen to a lot (maybe too much) of right wing talk radio and after all there is far more of that on the air then left wing talk (though there is both around). I would not be getting worried by the points raised from any highly biased sources, such as "conservative talk". That isn't to say that things are good or that everything being proposed is good. The fact is, like most of us, I really don't know what's right. It could be that the proposed stimulus saved us from doom as some say (not on conservative radio) or it could be that it was a near complete waste of resources because nothing can really be done to stop the giant deleveraging going on right now in the economy.

I think the main problem is that as a society we have overspent, overconsumed, allowed the creation of dangerous poorly understood unregulated debt instruments, failed to create jreal obs or the basis for economic growth and somehow failed to spot all this for more than 2 decades. Now it's come home to roost. This has occured through Republican and Democratic administrations alike back from Reagan who cut taxes but not spending to match, up through Clinton, George W. and now the current administration. Each administration kicked the can down the road as best they could. I ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147755-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-580155 580155 I appreciate your charts on the MCD and the Summation Index. I expect that there will be some sort of bounce with the MCD below -60, now. I'll probably use the bounce to lighten up on equities, expecting a roughed road ahead again.

To Dr. O. Rational people understand that global warming is real. The northern and eastern parts of the country have had a very unusual jet stream pattern this summer, bringing in cool Canadian air. So what? That doesn't change the fact that the average temps on the surface of the earth have been rising over the past few decades and that there'is very strong consensus among those that study it that our industrial activities are driving it. I fail to understand the point of denying climate change or how it became political... but strangely it has. We'll need to deal with it one way or another and ignoring it won't make it go away. ]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:45:51 -0400 I appreciate your charts on the MCD and the Summation Index. I expect that there will be some sort of bounce with the MCD below -60, now. I'll probably use the bounce to lighten up on equities, expecting a roughed road ahead again.

To Dr. O. Rational people understand that global warming is real. The northern and eastern parts of the country have had a very unusual jet stream pattern this summer, bringing in cool Canadian air. So what? That doesn't change the fact that the average temps on the surface of the earth have been rising over the past few decades and that there'is very strong consensus among those that study it that our industrial activities are driving it. I fail to understand the point of denying climate change or how it became political... but strangely it has. We'll need to deal with it one way or another and ignoring it won't make it go away. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147588-markets-rolling-over?source=feed#comment-578518 578518 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:25:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144730-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-576894 576894 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 09:23:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146877-taking-a-lesson-from-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-575442 575442
This is the theme I keep returning to. The expected way to pull the U.S. out of recession is increased consumer spending (accounts for 70% of the economy). Yet, how can consumers spend when the only reponsible action right now is to save?]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:46:03 -0400
This is the theme I keep returning to. The expected way to pull the U.S. out of recession is increased consumer spending (accounts for 70% of the economy). Yet, how can consumers spend when the only reponsible action right now is to save?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142810-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-568268 568268
It's hard to argue with the market manipluation theme. The gov't is providing money to banks who are funneling it to the trading desks. Seems the banks are using the money to trade and make money which obviously helps their bottom line and ability to pay back TARP so the executives can get back to their uncontrolled salaries and bonuses. I don't see the green shoots and still have no clue what the underlying fundamentals are. No administration wants the market to fall on their watch so they take extraordinary actions to keep it from plunging. ]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:56:28 -0400
It's hard to argue with the market manipluation theme. The gov't is providing money to banks who are funneling it to the trading desks. Seems the banks are using the money to trade and make money which obviously helps their bottom line and ability to pay back TARP so the executives can get back to their uncontrolled salaries and bonuses. I don't see the green shoots and still have no clue what the underlying fundamentals are. No administration wants the market to fall on their watch so they take extraordinary actions to keep it from plunging. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143373-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-548397 548397 Always enjoyt the chaets and the short term oversold probably means an up day Tuesday (or Wednesday) I suppose.

There was no apparent "stick save" at the end of the day, which has been unusual on down days, recently. I wonder if there's signifcance to that. I'd cut equities (long) to a little above 40% a few months ago which drifted down to about 34% as the market drifted to the March lows. Now, with the rally, I find my portfolio at between 42 and 43%. But, I wonder whether the games "da boyz" play is coming to an end, meaning less propping, no more stick saves, and maybe a return to reality - you know that place where real economic data drives market action. If that's arrived, maybe I should be taking my % equities back down a bit. Watching and waiting for a sign, I suppose. ]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:11:52 -0400 Always enjoyt the chaets and the short term oversold probably means an up day Tuesday (or Wednesday) I suppose.

There was no apparent "stick save" at the end of the day, which has been unusual on down days, recently. I wonder if there's signifcance to that. I'd cut equities (long) to a little above 40% a few months ago which drifted down to about 34% as the market drifted to the March lows. Now, with the rally, I find my portfolio at between 42 and 43%. But, I wonder whether the games "da boyz" play is coming to an end, meaning less propping, no more stick saves, and maybe a return to reality - you know that place where real economic data drives market action. If that's arrived, maybe I should be taking my % equities back down a bit. Watching and waiting for a sign, I suppose. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139707-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-540241 540241 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:12:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138339-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-509440 509440 Happy for you that Francie's surgery seems a success. I'm sure that brings relief. Have seen a fox eat a squirrel in the morning here in the suburbs of Boston.

I'm sitting with less than 50% equities, though as the market powers upward and not making any moves, the % keeps rising. I fear getting swept up in the euphoria and finally adding to equity positions just as the market turns downward again. Timing tends to work that way. As you note, this appears to be a market for professionals, which I am not. ]]> Tue, 19 May 2009 09:21:55 -0400 Happy for you that Francie's surgery seems a success. I'm sure that brings relief. Have seen a fox eat a squirrel in the morning here in the suburbs of Boston.

I'm sitting with less than 50% equities, though as the market powers upward and not making any moves, the % keeps rising. I fear getting swept up in the euphoria and finally adding to equity positions just as the market turns downward again. Timing tends to work that way. As you note, this appears to be a market for professionals, which I am not. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133457-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-503287 503287
I apparently don't know much about markets, but I get uncomfortable when I see such a dichotomy between what seems intuitive about the state of the economy versus the recent performance of the equity markets (which in theory are tied to that economy). ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 07:35:18 -0400
I apparently don't know much about markets, but I get uncomfortable when I see such a dichotomy between what seems intuitive about the state of the economy versus the recent performance of the equity markets (which in theory are tied to that economy). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137135-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-500119 500119
So many of the charts seem so synchronized. Makes diversification a more difficult task. I started investing in individual stocks in the late 90s (thuoght I was pretty smart) then went to buy-and-hold indexing after getting smashed by the early 2000s. But index investing diversification has often meant a mix of U.S. large, mid and small caps plus maybe 20% international stocks (plus some bonds and cash). That's been considered sufficient in the past. However, If everything continues to be fairly synchronized, index investors will have to look to expand into these other ETFs like USL, UNG, DBA. Of course, these can be far more volatile and not all that suited to buy-and-hold. ]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 08:34:37 -0400
So many of the charts seem so synchronized. Makes diversification a more difficult task. I started investing in individual stocks in the late 90s (thuoght I was pretty smart) then went to buy-and-hold indexing after getting smashed by the early 2000s. But index investing diversification has often meant a mix of U.S. large, mid and small caps plus maybe 20% international stocks (plus some bonds and cash). That's been considered sufficient in the past. However, If everything continues to be fairly synchronized, index investors will have to look to expand into these other ETFs like USL, UNG, DBA. Of course, these can be far more volatile and not all that suited to buy-and-hold. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136000-respect-the-bear-beware-the-bull?source=feed#comment-493454 493454
Meanwhile the stock market continues it's steady upward move and remains overbought or close to overbought levels. Who wins this battle? I hold equities though less as a percentage than a year ago, as I just don't know. Like many others, I suspect, I'm afraid to be out f the market but also very concerned that reality may have to eventually take hold of the market again. ]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 08:07:09 -0400
Meanwhile the stock market continues it's steady upward move and remains overbought or close to overbought levels. Who wins this battle? I hold equities though less as a percentage than a year ago, as I just don't know. Like many others, I suspect, I'm afraid to be out f the market but also very concerned that reality may have to eventually take hold of the market again. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133455-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-491517 491517
Personal debt also remains high and people still have to save more to make up for their lower home values and smaller 401(k)'s, neither of which are likely to leap up to their former trejectory.

I fail to see how we can just jump back to where things were. The way things were was/is part of the problem, it was demonstrated to be an unsustainable model. I admit being confused but still holding stocks, albeit at a little lower percentage. ]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 07:38:38 -0400
Personal debt also remains high and people still have to save more to make up for their lower home values and smaller 401(k)'s, neither of which are likely to leap up to their former trejectory.

I fail to see how we can just jump back to where things were. The way things were was/is part of the problem, it was demonstrated to be an unsustainable model. I admit being confused but still holding stocks, albeit at a little lower percentage. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135275-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-490049 490049
I continue to hold equities (though less than 1 or 2 years ago) and am enjoying the upturn. But I still have trouble making the case for a return to a sustainable bull market when I can't make a case for sustainable economic growth, I can only make a case for this slow down to ease somewhat. How long can the market seperate itself from the apparent underlying economic fundamentals? I admit I don't know. I just don't want to get caught too severely on the wrong side - whichever way it's going to go next. ]]> Tue, 05 May 2009 09:39:20 -0400
I continue to hold equities (though less than 1 or 2 years ago) and am enjoying the upturn. But I still have trouble making the case for a return to a sustainable bull market when I can't make a case for sustainable economic growth, I can only make a case for this slow down to ease somewhat. How long can the market seperate itself from the apparent underlying economic fundamentals? I admit I don't know. I just don't want to get caught too severely on the wrong side - whichever way it's going to go next. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133472-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-480495 480495
I guess that about says it all, Dave. It makes it very hard to believe in this rally. I guess my growing concern is that "we" eventually reflate a portion of the economy and equities come along for the ride only to be crushed on the next downside when the stimulus runs dry. If, by then, many small investors have jumped back in, this may do at least as much damage to investors as the initial downturn in equities. I'm afraid I could even become too complacent just in time for the next big leg down. ]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:12:46 -0400
I guess that about says it all, Dave. It makes it very hard to believe in this rally. I guess my growing concern is that "we" eventually reflate a portion of the economy and equities come along for the ride only to be crushed on the next downside when the stimulus runs dry. If, by then, many small investors have jumped back in, this may do at least as much damage to investors as the initial downturn in equities. I'm afraid I could even become too complacent just in time for the next big leg down. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130790-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-475596 475596 Unemployment numbers still rising (few finding work)
Unemployment new claims (fairly steady at a very elevated number)
Corporate earnings poor (unless you count beating horrendous expectations as "good").
Real Estate still slumping and prices still dropping y-o-y
Other world economies experiencing their own crises

Yet the market has been climbing. How is one to intelligently invest when there seems to be such divergence between economic fundamentals and the markets actions? Just thinking out loud, I guess.
]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 09:59:01 -0400 Unemployment numbers still rising (few finding work)
Unemployment new claims (fairly steady at a very elevated number)
Corporate earnings poor (unless you count beating horrendous expectations as "good").
Real Estate still slumping and prices still dropping y-o-y
Other world economies experiencing their own crises

Yet the market has been climbing. How is one to intelligently invest when there seems to be such divergence between economic fundamentals and the markets actions? Just thinking out loud, I guess.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130789-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-473943 473943
As you say, "Earnings aren’t good and neither are outlooks...". To me the market remains confusing. It obviously benefits many to talk of "green shoots" to attract investors back in and surely many investors having lost a great deal want to grasp onto any signs that they're about to get their chance to make up a portion of what they lost. But, I'm pretty suspicious of a market rally that has had this much force and staying power when the underlying economic fundamentals have merely changed from getting worse rapidly to getting worse a little more slowly (at best).

It seems a long way off to "good times" for the economy. And with perhaps the main engine of the consumer-driven past decade-plus being removed from the equation (home equity lines of credit), I can't see an outcome other than slower economic growth going forward even after we stop "recessing" - whenever that is. ]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 09:01:05 -0400
As you say, "Earnings aren’t good and neither are outlooks...". To me the market remains confusing. It obviously benefits many to talk of "green shoots" to attract investors back in and surely many investors having lost a great deal want to grasp onto any signs that they're about to get their chance to make up a portion of what they lost. But, I'm pretty suspicious of a market rally that has had this much force and staying power when the underlying economic fundamentals have merely changed from getting worse rapidly to getting worse a little more slowly (at best).

It seems a long way off to "good times" for the economy. And with perhaps the main engine of the consumer-driven past decade-plus being removed from the equation (home equity lines of credit), I can't see an outcome other than slower economic growth going forward even after we stop "recessing" - whenever that is. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130929-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-463830 463830
Yes, Dave and "Dr. O", this has been on my mind lately, too. How does one invest in a market that seems more driven by manipulation than underlying fundamentals. Seems too easy that this rally marks a new beginning of "good times". Especially when the economic data doesn't really reflect any sort of turnaround (despite some cheerleading by the majority of media outlets). A recent credible projection I saw of 2010 earnings/share is slightly less than the projected 2008 earnings. How can that sustain a rally? In the words of another blogger I respect (Barry Ritholtz), people may be confusing "an economy that's getting worse more slowly with one that's actually improving". There may be some relief in the market from the acceleration slowing somewhat... but signs of actual structural improvements aren't there IMHO.
]]> Wed, 15 Apr 2009 08:35:28 -0400
Yes, Dave and "Dr. O", this has been on my mind lately, too. How does one invest in a market that seems more driven by manipulation than underlying fundamentals. Seems too easy that this rally marks a new beginning of "good times". Especially when the economic data doesn't really reflect any sort of turnaround (despite some cheerleading by the majority of media outlets). A recent credible projection I saw of 2010 earnings/share is slightly less than the projected 2008 earnings. How can that sustain a rally? In the words of another blogger I respect (Barry Ritholtz), people may be confusing "an economy that's getting worse more slowly with one that's actually improving". There may be some relief in the market from the acceleration slowing somewhat... but signs of actual structural improvements aren't there IMHO.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129288-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-455970 455970 Wed, 08 Apr 2009 09:06:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127918-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-454577 454577 RM)? ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 08:27:41 -0400 RM)? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129295-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-450639 450639 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 09:33:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127917-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-449643 449643 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:59:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126742-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-442036 442036
Economically, I'm not convinced that we've solved anything as David says, but the market was longer term oversold and ready to rally. I'm leaning towards adding a little to my low equity position but awaiting that overbought indicator to come down to earth. In the past, I've foolishly ignored the indicator and not been happy. I intend to be more respectful of it in the future. ]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 08:04:03 -0400
Economically, I'm not convinced that we've solved anything as David says, but the market was longer term oversold and ready to rally. I'm leaning towards adding a little to my low equity position but awaiting that overbought indicator to come down to earth. In the past, I've foolishly ignored the indicator and not been happy. I intend to be more respectful of it in the future. ]]>