Seeking Advice

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave,
I think you said it pretty succinctly, "So the liquidity bubble continues to expand and investors are lovin’ it. It is what it is folks, enjoy it while you can." I've kept invested in the market (albeit at lower levels than 2006 or 2007) against my better judgment and feelings but that has proved prudent so far. I remain watchful for signs that either the government is removing liquidity or that investors are getting tired of little signs of real recovery - if that ultimately comes to pass.

Right now, I get the feeling that the only things that matter are that the government says they intend to continue to provide stimulus (1st time home buyer credits and the like) and the Fed indicates that they will keep rates near zero. And for now, maybe that's most of the market...

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Perhaps the path of least resistance for now is still up. There will be an extension to the first time home buyer credit and the U.S Fed and central banks world-wide seem to be taking action to ensure "easy money" to support as much economic growth as they can and in turn supporting equity prices (and commodity prices). As much as I have my doubts about true economic growth and concerns about moral hazard and increasing deficits, I keep feeling foolish when I start to get the urge to fight "the system".

I also see that it's more likely for right now that we edge a little higher than moving lower. But, of course, remain vigilant and aware of signs of potential big moves either down or up.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Really sems hard to know how to invest right now, Dave. I do believe that we're seeing an equity bubble. And it seems that the Government is purposely fostering it as a way to increase confidence and allow the big banks to increase their value. The government is devaluing the dollar which makes all comodities rise and the zero interest rates make it impossible to get any return on cash. Hence, the tendency for money to find its way to riskier assets like equities as everyone searches for a way to get some kind of return. It seems so simple in way, though it's not.

As a flexible buy-and-holder, I've been sliding up and down on my equity exposure based on apparent risks (which seem high). And while my exposure is lower for sure, fortunately I have not sold off so I've floated along with the rising equity tide. I keep asking myself how long things can continue and then remind myself that the market can stay irrational for a long time, especially if conditions are pressuring it in that direction. I'll keep reading you're comments as part of how I try to stay informed.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It's again frustrating for me how a normally great blog entry by you, David, once again gets brought down by ridiculous politics. Yes, politics and the economy/markets are tied, but please wtf does the US President wining the Nobel Peace Prize have to do with today's market action? Exactly, nothing. I suppose these blogs become a nice relief valve for some conservatives frustrated at finding themselves currently "out of power."

But David, for you to join the fray... come on. I get that you're a conservative and it's clear that many of your followers are as well, but as an Independent it just debases the discussion that I look to you for, which is unbiased technical analysis. I have no problem with your witty comments, and look forward to reading your analysis but please I ask you not encourage folks to head down that hole. I need to believe your interpretations of what's going on and what might be happening going forward. I don't want to start questioning your analysis as potentially colored by an ideological bias.