Seeking Advice

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Thanks for the charts, Dave. As always, the most informative blog on seeking alpha.
@ Dr. O. -- Your commentary almost always veers very political and I often find I disagree with your poltical points though not the economic ones, necessarily.
"...the administration's recent beating in the polls..."? Whether you agree or disagree with their approach, the poll numbers are hardly reflecting any 'beating' as they're approval numbers remain above 50% which is higher than many previous administrations at this point in their term. Perhaps it's wishful thinking on your part. And I've seen no "outright rebellion" of current policies as you describe it, just highly energized partisan fighting that I've seen when any administration tries to redirect policy.

That being said, one can't help but think that the big banks and the government are trying desperately to prop up the markets as we saw during the latter stages of the previous administration (these manipulations are good for whichever party is in power, after all). The temptation is probably too great. For the banks, they're benefitting from trading profits and from having their stock prices rise, while the government benefits from the rise in consumer confidence that results from 401k investments coming back somewhat.

Makes it hard to invest though when fundamentals appear not to matter much.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave,
Happy for you that Francie's surgery seems a success. I'm sure that brings relief. Have seen a fox eat a squirrel in the morning here in the suburbs of Boston.

I'm sitting with less than 50% equities, though as the market powers upward and not making any moves, the % keeps rising. I fear getting swept up in the euphoria and finally adding to equity positions just as the market turns downward again. Timing tends to work that way. As you note, this appears to be a market for professionals, which I am not.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Keep those charts and analysis coming, Dave. So, we appear to be in agreement that the markets are manipulated by... some combination of gov't and GS and maybe other large traders/funds? We also seem to agree that the "green shoots" being touted by some are mostly intended to cheer up the market. And some data shows a slowing down of the deterioration, but that's a far cry from anything resembling an upturn. Granted, you need to slow down prior to stopping and reversing direction but there are no real elements of the economy to actually draw strength from:
Unemployment numbers still rising (few finding work)
Unemployment new claims (fairly steady at a very elevated number)
Corporate earnings poor (unless you count beating horrendous expectations as "good").
Real Estate still slumping and prices still dropping y-o-y
Other world economies experiencing their own crises

Yet the market has been climbing. How is one to intelligently invest when there seems to be such divergence between economic fundamentals and the markets actions? Just thinking out loud, I guess.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave, as always your charts and analysis are invaluable to understanding underlying trends. I'm primarily an index investor, not a trader, but believe that buy-and-hold must be applied with a very liberal (definitely not your type of word - I think you'd prefer 'flexible') approach. Believing, as you said that "...prices [are] still extended from the previous rally", I sold a small amount of equities and moved that to money markets. I never move much at a time as it's too easy to find the trend is not your friend... Thanks again for your charts and analysis.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

On your EEM chart, you ask "Is the US an EM yet?" To that I say, probably just the opposite. What would be the opposite of an emerging market be... maybe a retreating market (RM)?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Great analysis again. I'm also somewhat long and holding my nose. I see no changes (improvements) on the horizon, economically (wish I did). Housing prices still going down, home sales still way down year over year (What's that? Feb home sales were up 4.7% from Jan... and that was... a 'surprise'?). The mark-to-fantasy rule change concerns me as well. But, I guess the banks will be O.K. now that we've suddenly raised the value of their assets. Right? Hmm... I'd like the power to do that with some of my assets, too, just don't tax me on it.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Still the most useful analysis on the site. And it's true as you say that there are few economists from the right or left of the spectrum that seem to like the Geithner plan. I don't either. I guess that doesn't mean it can't work, though. I also have trouble seeing the catalyst for equities rising sustainably for some time, despite some media cheering lately (e.g. misleading headlines like "Housing starts unexpectedly rise in February"). I see no real evidence that anything has fundamentally improved in the economy.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Always appreciate the charts and the accompanying analysis. This is typically among the most informative articles on SA or any web site and I always look forward to reading it. Though I've come to see that we have different political perspectives, the analysis is very rational and reasoned - a nice change from some writers.

I can't help thinking also that this situation will get worse than most are expecting and that the economy and the markets stay down for longer than most seem to expect as well. I think we're just too deep in it and that no matter who is in the White House, there are too many "pressure groups" with clout to allow uninhibited construction of a plan that would allow an "optimal" course of action. Regardless, I'm not sure there's a way to prevent the longer term economic malaise (e.g. lower consumer spending going forward), maybe just the speed and slope of the completion of this period and the speed and slope of the eventual recovery - whatever that will look like.