zalo's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/238973/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/133096-how-does-9000-gold-sound?source=feed#comment-488264 488264 On behalf of the dollar, it still is the currency of the most powerful country of the world. A currency value is based on the type of assets you can buy with it, and everybody likes the USD because you can go with USD to the US and buy pretty much everything (from shoes, to cars, to top world class education). Can you do that with the ruble, the yuan? No, you can´t. So, anything that debases the USD vs other currencies (without huge inflation in the US, which seems, for now, its not going to happen) even against gold, i would be a USD buyer for sure.]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 02:29:42 -0400 On behalf of the dollar, it still is the currency of the most powerful country of the world. A currency value is based on the type of assets you can buy with it, and everybody likes the USD because you can go with USD to the US and buy pretty much everything (from shoes, to cars, to top world class education). Can you do that with the ruble, the yuan? No, you can´t. So, anything that debases the USD vs other currencies (without huge inflation in the US, which seems, for now, its not going to happen) even against gold, i would be a USD buyer for sure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126666-the-fed-must-be-crazy?source=feed#comment-431809 431809




]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 01:47:11 -0400




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126213-aig-s-blackmail-note?source=feed#comment-428645 428645
The american government has to speed up the divestment of the company into sub-parts. The government should hold the division that generates the systemic risk, while cleaning up the other businesses. Even if these last are not sold right away, they must be separated at once and have their names changed so that they don´t carry the AIG stigma.

The systemically risky division can then be have its management reestructured. Kick out those guys that have received bonuses unappropiately.

]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:47:53 -0400
The american government has to speed up the divestment of the company into sub-parts. The government should hold the division that generates the systemic risk, while cleaning up the other businesses. Even if these last are not sold right away, they must be separated at once and have their names changed so that they don´t carry the AIG stigma.

The systemically risky division can then be have its management reestructured. Kick out those guys that have received bonuses unappropiately.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125804-cramer-grilled-on-jon-stewart?source=feed#comment-425565 425565 I think that people liked this cramer grilling because of they dislike cramer, but... cramer is not responsible for people taking bad mortgages or banks leveraging 35:1 or rating agencies asigning bad incorrect ratings to CDOs or regulators doing the worst job ever in history in overseeing the market.

]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 10:50:20 -0400 I think that people liked this cramer grilling because of they dislike cramer, but... cramer is not responsible for people taking bad mortgages or banks leveraging 35:1 or rating agencies asigning bad incorrect ratings to CDOs or regulators doing the worst job ever in history in overseeing the market.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123551-five-reasons-citi-s-worth-the-long-risk?source=feed#comment-412068 412068 Tue, 03 Mar 2009 22:47:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-398124 398124 Sat, 21 Feb 2009 19:55:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120716-will-lack-of-accord-on-stimulus-obscure-economic-lessons?source=feed#comment-391463 391463 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:56:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120812-japan-s-unimaginable-contraction?source=feed#comment-391456 391456 Instead of increasing goverment spending, a law can be passed stating that any new personal/corporate savings will be taxed. So, instead of collecting taxes and spending the money inefficiently, don´t collect extra taxes but push the people to buy what they need and want.

Another idea:
Pass a law that makes companies to pay employees in consumption certificates (i.e. 50% of the salary) that has a certain expire date.
]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:46:20 -0500 Instead of increasing goverment spending, a law can be passed stating that any new personal/corporate savings will be taxed. So, instead of collecting taxes and spending the money inefficiently, don´t collect extra taxes but push the people to buy what they need and want.

Another idea:
Pass a law that makes companies to pay employees in consumption certificates (i.e. 50% of the salary) that has a certain expire date.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/17769?source=feed#comment-387713 387713 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:55:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120025-obama-and-geithner-hoping-for-the-best-or-wishful-thinking?source=feed#comment-384963 384963
The first responsible is THE GOVERNMENT for failing in regulating the financial system. Isn´t the government the one who through regulation let banks to leverage up to their heads with AAA MBS? With this the government effectively delegated their responsibility on private, interested parties.

The second big responsible group are the PEOPLE who took huge, unpayable amounts of debt to buy overvalued houses. All that excess money is not in banks, that money is in hands of the previous owners of the houses or in developers. So, it is fair that the people has now to pay for their clumsy financial decisions?. Yep, they HAVE to loose their houses and they HAVE to put money to support the financial system.

Banks have also their share of fault...but they are not the only guilty ones.

But in order to win the elections, both candidates appealed to the people by blaming banks. You cannot win an election by critizicing all the people who wrongly bought a house they couldn´t afford.

]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:04:01 -0500
The first responsible is THE GOVERNMENT for failing in regulating the financial system. Isn´t the government the one who through regulation let banks to leverage up to their heads with AAA MBS? With this the government effectively delegated their responsibility on private, interested parties.

The second big responsible group are the PEOPLE who took huge, unpayable amounts of debt to buy overvalued houses. All that excess money is not in banks, that money is in hands of the previous owners of the houses or in developers. So, it is fair that the people has now to pay for their clumsy financial decisions?. Yep, they HAVE to loose their houses and they HAVE to put money to support the financial system.

Banks have also their share of fault...but they are not the only guilty ones.

But in order to win the elections, both candidates appealed to the people by blaming banks. You cannot win an election by critizicing all the people who wrongly bought a house they couldn´t afford.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119386-kindle-2-still-expensive?source=feed#comment-381886 381886
First of all, people still like to buy paper books because, apart from the reading amusement, books are good for shelves. People want to put them in places where they can be seen. They show who we are, what we like, what we have studied. You cannot do that with the kindle. Can you imagine a decent office without books??

Second of all, an Ipod gives you a kind of progressive, modern, young look. You don´t get that with the kindle.The ipod gives you games, and other stuff. It delivers more than music.

Third, it IS expensive. 300+ bucks is quite expensive for a black and white screen, nothing new screen. Can i read books on my laptop? Yes. So why buying the extra bulky kindle?.

Put a phone, music and a kindle together and you probably will get something. But hey, that´s a laptop.


]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 00:32:08 -0500
First of all, people still like to buy paper books because, apart from the reading amusement, books are good for shelves. People want to put them in places where they can be seen. They show who we are, what we like, what we have studied. You cannot do that with the kindle. Can you imagine a decent office without books??

Second of all, an Ipod gives you a kind of progressive, modern, young look. You don´t get that with the kindle.The ipod gives you games, and other stuff. It delivers more than music.

Third, it IS expensive. 300+ bucks is quite expensive for a black and white screen, nothing new screen. Can i read books on my laptop? Yes. So why buying the extra bulky kindle?.

Put a phone, music and a kindle together and you probably will get something. But hey, that´s a laptop.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/17193?source=feed#comment-378854 378854 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:52:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/17193?source=feed#comment-378852 378852 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:51:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117135-thinking-the-impossible-could-bank-of-america-go-to-zero?source=feed#comment-369518 369518

On Jan 29 02:05 AM zalo wrote:

> The first BIG issue to define is what is a "toxic" asset. A toxic
> asset is an asset whose expected losses makes its today´s market
> value severely below its book value in a specific institution. This
> has two important parts. First, that the value depends on EXPECTED
> losses, not realized losses. And second, that it depends on when
> and how it is being booked.
> So, a toxic asset depends on expectations and where it is sitting.
>
>
> So, saying that banks are insolvent is quite inexact because people
> are measuring balance sheets with EXPECTED losses and not realized
> losses. This is a massive accounting inconsistency. If you should
> account for EXPECTED losses, you should account also for EXPECTED
> income. If so, banks then should NPV their fees and financial margin
> and put that as equity. Some sort of similar value is generated when
> a company acquires another, mostly known as goodwill, which is the
> value of the ongoing company vs the assets and liabilities in the
> balance sheet of the acquired entity. Unfortunately, goodwill is
> not internally generated due to accounting rules.
> So, writing off expected losses should be done only if you could
> write up expected income. But that doesn´t happen.
> ]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 02:07:39 -0500

On Jan 29 02:05 AM zalo wrote:

> The first BIG issue to define is what is a "toxic" asset. A toxic
> asset is an asset whose expected losses makes its today´s market
> value severely below its book value in a specific institution. This
> has two important parts. First, that the value depends on EXPECTED
> losses, not realized losses. And second, that it depends on when
> and how it is being booked.
> So, a toxic asset depends on expectations and where it is sitting.
>
>
> So, saying that banks are insolvent is quite inexact because people
> are measuring balance sheets with EXPECTED losses and not realized
> losses. This is a massive accounting inconsistency. If you should
> account for EXPECTED losses, you should account also for EXPECTED
> income. If so, banks then should NPV their fees and financial margin
> and put that as equity. Some sort of similar value is generated when
> a company acquires another, mostly known as goodwill, which is the
> value of the ongoing company vs the assets and liabilities in the
> balance sheet of the acquired entity. Unfortunately, goodwill is
> not internally generated due to accounting rules.
> So, writing off expected losses should be done only if you could
> write up expected income. But that doesn´t happen.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117135-thinking-the-impossible-could-bank-of-america-go-to-zero?source=feed#comment-369514 369514 So, a toxic asset depends on expectations and where it is sitting.

So, saying that banks are insolvent is quite inexact because people are measuring balance sheets with EXPECTED losses and not realized losses. This is a massive accounting inconsistency. If you should account for EXPECTED losses, you should account also for EXPECTED income. If so, banks then should NPV their fees and financial margin and put that as equity. Some sort of similar value is generated when a company acquires another, mostly known as goodwill, which is the value of the ongoing company vs the assets and liabilities in the balance sheet of the acquired entity. Unfortunately, goodwill is not internally generated due to accounting rules.
So, writing off expected losses should be done only if you could write up expected income. But that doesn´t happen.

]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 02:05:51 -0500 So, a toxic asset depends on expectations and where it is sitting.

So, saying that banks are insolvent is quite inexact because people are measuring balance sheets with EXPECTED losses and not realized losses. This is a massive accounting inconsistency. If you should account for EXPECTED losses, you should account also for EXPECTED income. If so, banks then should NPV their fees and financial margin and put that as equity. Some sort of similar value is generated when a company acquires another, mostly known as goodwill, which is the value of the ongoing company vs the assets and liabilities in the balance sheet of the acquired entity. Unfortunately, goodwill is not internally generated due to accounting rules.
So, writing off expected losses should be done only if you could write up expected income. But that doesn´t happen.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116564-deflation-risk-dipping-as-stagflation-risk-rises?source=feed#comment-367166 367166 ]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 23:35:38 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/15658?source=feed#comment-361575 361575
Long term plan for both: Sell assets orderly to repay without market disruption.
Equity infusion: Yes
Guarantees on assets: Yes.
Dividend restriction: Yes
Management bonus restrictions: Yes

]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 02:15:42 -0500
Long term plan for both: Sell assets orderly to repay without market disruption.
Equity infusion: Yes
Guarantees on assets: Yes.
Dividend restriction: Yes
Management bonus restrictions: Yes

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=feed#comment-361572 361572 ]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 02:07:27 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115166-banks-the-final-countdown?source=feed#comment-358771 358771
and if banks are cleaned from this securities...is the US government going to clean also the insurance companies, the pension funds, the hedge funds, etc. to stabilize this securities markets?.

]]> Sun, 18 Jan 2009 03:01:54 -0500
and if banks are cleaned from this securities...is the US government going to clean also the insurance companies, the pension funds, the hedge funds, etc. to stabilize this securities markets?.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115181-which-black-swan-will-pop-the-treasury-bubble?source=feed#comment-358767 358767 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 02:51:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114833-beige-book-black-picture?source=feed#comment-356211 356211 Still, i think that governments have powerful weapons to fight this recession. Monetary policy have deployed powerful weapons and governments are delivering fiscal backstops. Governments must not worry now for their credit ratings (for now at least), they must fight the implosion of their economies.
]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:31:09 -0500 Still, i think that governments have powerful weapons to fight this recession. Monetary policy have deployed powerful weapons and governments are delivering fiscal backstops. Governments must not worry now for their credit ratings (for now at least), they must fight the implosion of their economies.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114833-beige-book-black-picture?source=feed#comment-356206 356206 Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:24:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114830-cycles-recessions-and-looking-forward?source=feed#comment-356205 356205 Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:22:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114556-the-end-of-citigroup?source=feed#comment-356108 356108 One thing is to have a business model that can keep the stock from outperforming and another is saying that it is the cause of an implotion. There is a huge difference in both analysis.
]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 20:33:21 -0500 One thing is to have a business model that can keep the stock from outperforming and another is saying that it is the cause of an implotion. There is a huge difference in both analysis.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14884?source=feed#comment-350352 350352 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 23:29:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113198-manufacturing-collapse-reminiscent-of-great-depression-s-beginning?source=feed#comment-348097 348097 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:09:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14671?source=feed#comment-348087 348087 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:53:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113111-stay-away-from-treasuries-barron-s?source=feed#comment-346025 346025 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:38:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14212?source=feed#comment-341031 341031
But, as the full strength of the recession is passing through with lots of economic damage around the world, i must say that since the start of december i have grown upbeat. The Lehman demise and stock market crash changed the sleepy mood of global policy makers to one much more aggressive. Stock markets are now stabilizing and credit conditions, at least for viable governments even in emerging markets (see Mexico, Brazil, Peru) are now more constructive and reaching pre-crisis levels, and this should translate to corporate renewed access to credit at adequate levels in the near future.

Pain is still to occur, but as in every illness, pain is part of the healing process, it is unavoidable. So, in order to get the healing process complete, the world should focus now on avoiding another crack in the system. As in a chain, the weekest link can break the whole chain. Pin pointing, the IMF and the US should quickly move to support aggressively the Ucranian economy. A currency swap line from the US-European central banks are necessary, IMF stronger support to quickly refinance any foreign debt maturing in the short run in order to reprogram the debt maturity profile to match the weaker cash flow generation due to weaker exports. A Ukrainian fail could trigger a new round of chain effects that can be avoided by providing the necessary support.

As a peruvian, i would like investors to check up on the peruvian economy, which until now is running at quite good speed (around 8% for the year) and even in the latter months it has managed strong growth (+7%) despite the global recession. Fiscal results are still very positive (S/ 500 million per month), and thus we have ample capacity to fight the external crisis, government savings run up to 8% gdp (20 thousand millions PEN) plus external reserves of 30% gdp, to the same amount of external debt which has been reesctructured massively to very long term maturities in the last years, thus providing ample flexibility to the government. The fiscal plan for 2009 to fight the crisis is of S/ 10 thousand million pen, which can be covered easily by the fiscal results plus a small reduction of the government savings, without even touching international reserves. Ths peruvian financial system is in excelent shape, balance sheets are extremely clean and its external debt exposure is small compared to the international reserves held. Peru has signed free trade agreements with the US, China and is in the way to sign one with the European Union making it an excelent base for industry and exports to this huge economies. Peru has access to its own gas reserves, providing it with cheap energy resources for its industry. Peru has also one of the most important minerals reserves, which grant important cash flows for the country in the present and the future.




]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:30:03 -0500
But, as the full strength of the recession is passing through with lots of economic damage around the world, i must say that since the start of december i have grown upbeat. The Lehman demise and stock market crash changed the sleepy mood of global policy makers to one much more aggressive. Stock markets are now stabilizing and credit conditions, at least for viable governments even in emerging markets (see Mexico, Brazil, Peru) are now more constructive and reaching pre-crisis levels, and this should translate to corporate renewed access to credit at adequate levels in the near future.

Pain is still to occur, but as in every illness, pain is part of the healing process, it is unavoidable. So, in order to get the healing process complete, the world should focus now on avoiding another crack in the system. As in a chain, the weekest link can break the whole chain. Pin pointing, the IMF and the US should quickly move to support aggressively the Ucranian economy. A currency swap line from the US-European central banks are necessary, IMF stronger support to quickly refinance any foreign debt maturing in the short run in order to reprogram the debt maturity profile to match the weaker cash flow generation due to weaker exports. A Ukrainian fail could trigger a new round of chain effects that can be avoided by providing the necessary support.

As a peruvian, i would like investors to check up on the peruvian economy, which until now is running at quite good speed (around 8% for the year) and even in the latter months it has managed strong growth (+7%) despite the global recession. Fiscal results are still very positive (S/ 500 million per month), and thus we have ample capacity to fight the external crisis, government savings run up to 8% gdp (20 thousand millions PEN) plus external reserves of 30% gdp, to the same amount of external debt which has been reesctructured massively to very long term maturities in the last years, thus providing ample flexibility to the government. The fiscal plan for 2009 to fight the crisis is of S/ 10 thousand million pen, which can be covered easily by the fiscal results plus a small reduction of the government savings, without even touching international reserves. Ths peruvian financial system is in excelent shape, balance sheets are extremely clean and its external debt exposure is small compared to the international reserves held. Peru has signed free trade agreements with the US, China and is in the way to sign one with the European Union making it an excelent base for industry and exports to this huge economies. Peru has access to its own gas reserves, providing it with cheap energy resources for its industry. Peru has also one of the most important minerals reserves, which grant important cash flows for the country in the present and the future.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112466-what-are-the-chances-ukraine-just-hit-the-second-great-depression?source=feed#comment-340452 340452
Lets remember that in the 30s depression unemployment rose above 20% and we had a deflation of nearly 10%, we are rather now at the 7-8% levels unemployment and the worst case scenario i have seen for inflation is -4% for 4Q mainly due to energy costs drop, which actually will be positive for demand in other items.

So, this will be a strong recession, not a depression, but yes, some countries will go under because of their poor debt management.

]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:36:49 -0500
Lets remember that in the 30s depression unemployment rose above 20% and we had a deflation of nearly 10%, we are rather now at the 7-8% levels unemployment and the worst case scenario i have seen for inflation is -4% for 4Q mainly due to energy costs drop, which actually will be positive for demand in other items.

So, this will be a strong recession, not a depression, but yes, some countries will go under because of their poor debt management.

]]>