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Which Black Swan Will Pop the Treasury Bubble?

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Cycles, Recessions, and Looking Forward

The Mexican crisis originated a latin american crisis in the same way that the housing crisis has triggered a credit/financial crisis. When the mexican debt crisis started, the american government implemented the Brady Plan to reestructure Latin American debts to US Banks, and sell them to investors. In this way, they cleaned the US Banks balance sheets and reestructured the latin debt. Why not a Housing Brady?. The difference that i see necessary from the actual plans is that a huge cash pool should be made available to mostgage debtors (not banks), where they can get the cash to prepay and refinance their motgages o convenient terms. The government can then sell the Housing Brady Bonds with certain government collateral to investors and recoup their money. As the mortgage debtor will be owing to a special rescue fund from the government, instead of a bank, they will feel morally compelled to pay instead of walking away.

Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom

This is a waste of time.

Cheapest Valuations in Decades Will Trump Panic Selling

Valuations are extremely cheap, even for a massive correction of earnings. The problem is that as fear continues, what was not real could actually become self fulfilling. But i think that the governments have intervened timely and aggresively to stop this armaggedon of becoming true by recapitalizing and backing banks. So, without a systemic risk in hands, governments can focus on rebuilding credit, even if it is necessary to do it with their own hands. For the sake of corporations and consumers, it doesn´t matter from whom they get the credit as long as they receive them. For governments, it is also important to keep the economy up and running.
So, even though we are still headed towards a strong recession, the kind of stock price crash that we had is more representative of a complete economic meltdown, which is, by the minute, reducing its probability of occuring. Even for cyclical industries like commodities producers, i think that as there was probably a bubble some months ago, now we are seeing the opposite. Nothing has changed fundamentally regarding the extreme tightness in demand and supply.

Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing

All technicals show an extremeley oversold condition. What has happened is that a small probability of having an economy implosion has scared people heavily and they have run for cover into the woods. As soon as the Armageddon probability dissapears, a huge rally should form...which doesnt mean that the economic problems are gone, but prices shouldstart to reflect reality.

This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force

A market bottom has formed. Vix touched 70, put call equity ratio blew up over the roof and valuations are RIDICULOUSLY low. Governments are a cm short of guaranteeing every penny that goes through the financial system (actually they are by pledging putting the necessary capital into them). So, as soon as credit markets start rolling over again, which i expect to happen on tuesday after the governments pledge (normality is not needed, just a sign that it will start to run again), a huge rally will get underway. The market is in an extremely oversold condition and cash is piled up in the sidelines. Investors are SURE that the market is extremley cheap, but they don´t want to get burn´t in this downward spiral, but as soon as the market gets more stable buyers will pile up.

One important thing to consider is that losses in the financial market are only nominal losses. Productive real assets are still there. People that demand products are still there.