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Credit Crisis Watch: Gaining Positive Traction?

It seems measures of volumes are missing for the different capital and money markets monitored here. If the rates come lower but the flows do not increase that is not much good for a recovery. And this is what is happening right now with banks hoarding TARP equity money to cover for potentially worthless assets still on their books. The political diversion and disputes about the use of TARP funds and about the use of the coming stimulus package add to the uncertainties and cannot but weigh ever more negatively on the stock markets.

Our Coming Depression

This article while persuasive for the diagnosis of the present situation is overly pessimistic as to the prognosis because it is too US-centric. In 1929 you did not have new powers and markets like China, India, Eastern Europe and Russia. All these are now large developing markets for equipements and even consumer goods and they have large and positive financial reserves. So while the domestic US market is going to contract the US still could take advantage of the international market. Of course this would mean working more and consuming less but the Liberty ships builders did it and their circumstances were much worse.