Richard Wakefield

9 Questions on Newspapers' 2Q Reports

To answer question 9, the short answer is "not much if any". A trend line model (ARIMA) and forecast (Monte Carlo) show a decline of 13% in 2008 and an additional 12% in 2009. Interestingly, when I build the last three recessions into the model, there is only a slight change in the expected values. There are going to be major realignments over the short term...and a very rough ride for some.