Richard Wakefield

What Housing Recovery?

Can you tell me where in the Natl Board of Realtors did you find sale prices by various price category? I cannot come up with that data. I believe, as you do, there is no real housing recovery.

As an analyst, I am trying to track thru existing sales the same way one can analyze new home sales.

Thanks

Income Tax, Not Wealth Tax: That's Another Story

We have a substantial wealth tax system in this country: the Federal Estate Tax and the states' Inheritance tax. And, since every earner has to file an income tax return every year and everyone has to file death related tax returns when death occurs, the governments know how much wealth you have.

Cramer's Mad Money - The Google of Healthcare (7/6/09)

I do nort see any difference between the proposed retirement bonds and other unfunded liabilities. And, I do not trust the feds to do anything constructive with finances.

Saving Newspapers: Put Humpty Dumpty Back Together

A long time ago, in the 70's, I was taught by the newspaper elders that the local newspaper is the community marketplace for news, ideas, opinions and marketing. That is why newspapers have value to readers. Enter the internet -- perhaps starting with sites like the Drudgereport and search engines. The "marketplace" concept began to break down. Readership was now in play!

The fundamental problem for newspapers now, and has been for many years, is loss of readership. You can track declining readership into declining circulation. Inevitably, the shrinking franchise shrinks advertising revenue.

In the 90's the youth began to shun newspapers. Now, those non-reading youth are middle-aged -- and they did not change their readership patterns.

With the readership trends, one can only expect to see the traditional printed newspaper lose franchise.

Sinking Ad Revenues: Death Knell for Newspapers

$37.9 billion sounds good for 2008. But, I believe eMarketer is too optimistic for 2009. My forecast shows 2009 with an expected value of $30.3 billion. One correction: the numbers used here are not revenue numbers; rather, they are daily newspaper advertising expenditures estimates which include significant payments to third parties. A rough benchmarking the newspaper ad expenditures to the Census Bureau Economic Censuses and recent Service Annual Surveys, shows that only 60% to 65% of the reported ad expenditures actually goes to newspapers as revenue. We're working on a rigorous benchmark now. We'll have it on the website soon.

Media and Entertainment Outlook Worsens - S&P

The print news media faces a structural challenge that will cause restructurings and re-orgs, and even failures. I see the Newspaper Association of America Advertising Expenditures series dropping 15% in 2008 relative to 2007 and 2009 dropping an additional 16.5% from 2008.

if the above forecast turns out to be accurate and considering the print media's high operating leverage, some media companies will not make it.

Newspaper Ad Revenues Gaining Downhill Momentum; Online Struggling Too

I maintain models of (NAA) ad expenditures trends and I must say I was totally surprised by the Q2 results for online. The $777 million is in the zero percentile in a one period ahead series. I was forecasting the 2008 aggregate expenditure to be $39.4 bilion and 2009 to be $34.6 billion. It's going to be worse than that. Additionally, for some time now, newspaper ad exps have been disconnected from macroeconomic indicators. These recent trends are not cyclical.

NYT Dilemma: Cut Dividend or Get Junked

A junk bond rating? Another too high rating. NYT circulation declines lead to advertising declines which leads to loss of franchise.

9 Questions on Newspapers' 2Q Reports

To answer question 9, the short answer is "not much if any". A trend line model (ARIMA) and forecast (Monte Carlo) show a decline of 13% in 2008 and an additional 12% in 2009. Interestingly, when I build the last three recessions into the model, there is only a slight change in the expected values. There are going to be major realignments over the short term...and a very rough ride for some.