goldhammer

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dave, thanks as always for your work and insight.
Considering a couple of things: the 'rollovers' you highlight show some interesting directions. It looks like gold has quite a bit more to gain, as it is not rolling over. But the R2000, as you note, is a better indicator of the overall economic & market health, and it's showing the 'rollover' markers. That, plus the same in financials, tells me that the stimulus has stimulated but the forward-looking elements of the market are expecting a down-leg going into the end of the year. Looks to me like a long, cold winter. /goldhammer

Renault Plans to Return to U.S. Car Market

I missed this call a year ago when I had thought a French co would be the buyer for Chrysler. I guess I'm not that bright because I don't make any sense out of the Fiat deal. They must be pretty smart though.

For many years the French haven't been in the North American market, the biggest auto market in the world or used to be. So it seemed a natural fit for Renault or Peugeot to return if they could snap up an in-tact dealer network at a good price.

I think Penske has the right idea. I just wish he'd bought SAAB too.

AT&T: The (Apple) Brand Destroyer

I have to laugh. Probably almost 20 years ago I signed up for an ATT/Universal card, mostly because they offered a "Universal Number" feature, that ATT would forward to any of your phones.

Imagine it! One number, a personal number of my own, forever! That I could point to any phone I wanted, plus voice mail! The personal number could be used as a long-distance calling card number too (sorry, I'm dating myself. you see, when you had to make a LD call, you used this number...awww- forget it)

Sadly, they never 'switched on' the auto-forward, cool Universal # program. I never found out why.

Almost a decade after the turn of the century, ATT is a cell phone company that sells Apple phones and Google Voice is going to make the universal number plan actually happen. <shakes head>

Now about cash-for-clunkers...

Supporting the Financial System by Bleeding the 'Real' Economy

From the article:
"The 'real' economy is now expensively supporting the financial system, ... It is simply beyond any reasonable explanation."

"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" -- Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of the Four

So, what is the improbable thing that must be true?
/Goldhammer

Sorry, No V-Shaped Recovery

re: Expat: your comment on zero-inventory is right on the mark, and an important one. The shift away from brick-and-mortar warehouses to in-transit inventory, or drop-ship on-order, has been the key survival factor for sales & distribution businesses, followed by horrible cost-cutting (many 'service' jobs cut). The measure of razor-thin inventories is less instructive than freight utilization (ups/fedEx/trains).

And as M. Bern says, nobody is going to borrow or spend to expand their business in the teeth of Q-over-Q sales declines. Thanks for your comments, Ex & Bern.

/goldhammer

Watching the Rails for Economic Recovery

Sir, this data shines a light in a very useful way, indicating a clearer picture of demand-destruction. Sigh. I shudder just looking at that graph. The useful part is that GS & the Boys can't manipulate this data or pump up freight sales. This is the real state of things.

Thank you , but I wish it weren't so.

/goldhammer

Keeping My Investments on Sidelines as Market Lacks Clear Direction

Mr. Brown, Thank you for your column.

Your comment about emigrating is a serious one and deserves some insight and comment. The problem of course is where to go. I would be interested in your possible destinations, because I think there are probably a lot of smart, ambitious Americans who may be considering the same thing. If that is not a bad 'leading indicator', I don't know what is. Keep us posted.
/goldhammer

The Intercloud: Where Computing Needs to Go

very interesting article. Thank you.
/goldhammer

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

A few thoughts for this happy-go-lucky bunch.

First, kudos to Mr. Summers for a well reasoned and thorough article. My only quibble is that the signs of bottom seem a bit to light for an article(s) about economic collapse. CNBC cutting hosts? c'mon...

This crowd is thinking about _real_ collapse. Not shuffling the deck chairs, etc. But the real thing. Bolsheviks, break up of the Union, riots, etc. Mr. Buffett would not survive with his head, except maybe in his hands.

I think a real prediction of collapse goes something like this:
I see three distinct possibilities: 1) general muddling until times get better 2) long, slow (generational), painful, global economic malaise, or 3) catastrophe followed by sharp & massive upheaval.

In general, we know what the first two look like, but I bet a lot of this crowd has an eye out for a _big_ event. History is generally marked by sharp turns at catastrophic events. Here are a few possibilities: assassination of a significant person, sudden military action, a natural disaster, an effective terrorist action and collapse of a government.

For history I'll mention the Yugoslav guy that triggered WW1, Pearl Harbor, fall of the Berlin Wall, the Crusades, smallpox in early-Columbian America, and obviously 9/11.

My hunch is that the China-Japan-N.Korea triangle will be the fulcrum for sudden change. That means that we will get swept along, but probably out of harms way (again) and come out unscathed. Or maybe not...

Thanks.
/goldhammer

As Goes GM, So Goes the Country

Mr. Browne, though I do not _want_ to agree with you, I do agree with you. I am not eager to demonize the government, unions or American manufacturing, but I have two words: British Leyland.

You know the story: failing domestic automaker, government backing, pumping demand, more 'investment' - and ultimate failure.

GM & the UAW aside, I chalk this up as part of the Main Street Bailout that follows the populist outrage (justifiable, in my eyes) over the Wall Street Bailout. Part and parcel of the political reality.

I wonder: is it better to let (fill-in your favorite bank/inv house/automaker) fail quickly, or better to prop them up for a more orderly wind down? I hold my nose and say: prop them up.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave,
Wishing your Missus a speedy recovery from Raleigh.

Thank you for your daily diligence and insight. I have learned much from you and the team.

Courage, brother.
/Rick

There's Revolution in the Air

While I was gardening this weekend, my neighbor -a postman- invited me to a "populist" rally on April 15th. He said, "Bring your pitchfork."

I don't know... is NZ still a viable option for emigration? I don't think I want to hang around during a "populist movement".
/goldhammer

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I wonder how much gold China has, and if they convert all the $ to gold, could they base the Yuan on gold? Of course the Yuan would soar, but cash would stampede in. Then what, just buy the US, like we bought Alaska/Louisiana (from broke, failing governments...Uh-oh...... Sorry, what a bummer.

Love the columns, Mr. Fry. Count me as an everyday reader.

U.S. Dollar: The Best of Times, The Worst of Times

John, would it be possible that china a) converts its $ to gold, b) converted the Yuan to a gold-backed currency, c) positioned itself as the most stable currency in the world, and d) the $/Euros make the 'stampede' into the Yuan?

The End of the U.S. As We Know It: Tracking the Dollar Downward

--Pasted from the Ron Paul website: dailypaul.com

New Hampshire Legislature Takes On Federal Gov't
Posted February 3rd, 2009 by freeyourmind

halturnershow.blogspot...

February 2, 2009
New Hampshire talks Civil War against feds!

The New Hampshire state legislature took an unbelievably bold step
today by introducing a resolution to declare certain actions by the
federal government to completely totally void and warning that
certain future acts will be viewed as a "breach of peace" with the
states themselves that risks "nullifying the Constitution. "

This act by New Hampshire is a clear warning to the federal...