Michael S

Another 'Why History Is Not a Guide' for Today's Trading

RE to Freddyv: I'll have to apologize for SA's title - it was NOT the original from my blog (but the editors here take a lot of liberty in modifying authors' republished works). I agree that history IS a guide. The point of the post was that sometimes the market makes abrupt shifts and we have to be prepared for that as mechanical traders. michael


On Mar 04 12:48 PM freddyv wrote:

> Actually, history is a very good guide but you have to know where
> in history to look. We are now seeing a correction to the excesses
> of the past 2-3 decades and so looking to them for answer, except
> in reverse, perhaps, is foolish.
>
> We are also not in a high (working) population growth, inflationary
> period so the 1970's are also not a good time for comparison.
>
> We are in a deflationary deleveraging and so looking way back to
> the 1930's would be the most likely to offer useful data.