ozcutty2

Pfizer's Acquisition of Wyeth Could Be Short Boon to Shareholders

Feel sorry for Wyeth employees, they are toast. PFE only want the drugs, they don't need the employees, expect all 50000 of them to be unemployed within 2 years.
From a business perspective it is a good deal for PFE because they have paid a reasonable price and if they can sell all of Wyeths drugs using their existing distibution and manufacturing they can basically fire all the Wyeth employees and shut their factories, so they get the combined companies revenue with only PFE costs.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Only last 1% in their investment portfolio last year? holy crap thats amazing

Would You Buy Bank of America Common?

I wouldn't take insider buying too seriously. Insiders owned alot of BSC and LEH and it didn't help.
Banks are way too risky, i'm looking at financial companies with similar upside but less risk like asset managers.

U.S. Market Forecast: Bear Rally, Retest of Current Lows, Recovery - Scotia

Corporate America is downsizing. which is an expensive, painful exercise. Severence pay and write downs are masking a lot of good things. At some point this will reverse. We are currently in the first wave of downsizing, the second wave is probably dependant on governement policy decisions and confidence.

How the Government Forced BofA to Marry Merrill Lynch

I actually like what BAC have done, it was an all stock deal and included a chunk of BLK which is valuable.
The problem is everyone is so short term, in a couple of years Ken Lewis's aquisitions may look amazing value, but the public and the government want to interfere and ruin any long term thinking for short term political gain.

Same situation in UK, lets punish the banks, sure we will give them money, but we will make them pay 8-12% interest (which they can't afford) and wipe out shareholders. After all shareholders and rich greedy people who deserve to be punished.

How the Treasury Bubble Will Burst and Why

its just a recession people, don't waste money on a bunker, buy low remember!
if you want an inflation hedge, buy realestate.

Where Citigroup Went Wrong

Businesses grown by aquisitions always seem to get too big and bloated. It always makes me laugh when CEO's say they are going to cut 40000 staff to "improve" efficiencies. What were those staff even doing being hired in the first place?
With my investing i am sticking with companies that generate loads of cash but never buy businesses in foreign countries they don't understand. IF you have spare cash, buy back shares, not some dodgey overseas company in a market you know nothing about.
Case in point, i live in Australia, every successful company in Australia that trys to expand to Europe or the US goes wrong; AMP, Fosters, NAB, etc. They don't understand the market, the customers and importantly underestimate the competition.
If citibank, simply stayed in the US, in the most profitable business in the most profitable part of the country and bought back shares with its cash it would be a highly valuable company, although the sad thing is, some other bank would probably buy it!

Big Risks, Big Opportunities

I think the US dollar is weak, but so is every other economy, most have even bigger problems than the US so US dollar will remain a safe haven.

If inflation trends up, US will raise rates which would actually strengthen dollar, at least short term.

Historically if US is in recession, emerging market always suffers the most. The US consumer stops buying but can still feed their family. I always think of the emerging markets as leverage to US growth, i.e. Dow goes up 20%, China goes up 40, and the reverse is true in a downturn.

Tech Bellwethers Looking Cheap?

I acutally think these charts show the opposite, that they are not that cheap and have been cheaper in the past, i.e. it looks like AAPL used to trade at 8x earnings, so at 15 it can't be classed as a bargain.

Bank of America Facing Mortgage Servicing Losses

BAC stocks plunging. Expect more drama soon. I think the gov will have to step in with another one of its 300billion gaurantees ala Citigroup.

GE: Lose AAA Rating or Cut Dividend

Paying out a fat dividend whilst borrowing money at 10%, makes perfect sense.......

Kraft Foods: Time to Put This Cash Cow Out to Pasture?

Good article, when WB Kraft purchase was disclosed, i had a hard look at the company and couldn't figure out what all the fuss was about. Very slow growing and over valued. Large food retailers all seem to be developing their own generics which used to be horrible, but are now almost as good.

Of the sector, I do love PM, holding PM for the next 50 years will make you a millionaire (slowly) but i'm impatient, so sold my holding for a profit and rotated into beaton down financial DFS. One day, i will rotate back again!

Ten Stock Picks for 2009

Interesting that people are not recomending financials for 2009.

However history says that the worst performers in 2008 (financials) will be the best performers in 2009. Also financials tend to lead in any bull market.

Stocks that have held up relatively well in 2008 like JNJ and MO were great picks last year but chances are they will lagg the market in any recovery.

I'll stick with my financials, healthcare and tech for the turnaround.

Harley-Davidson Gives Investors Ample Cause to Be Cautious

Good post by motosceptical. Declining sales plus rising defaults are not a good combination.
At least other lenders, like Credit card co's are increasing sales and have fee income, Harley doesn't have anything to offset the losses and could well be brought down by this recession.
Only positive is cheaper raw materials.

Australian Dollar in the Buy Zone

Australia has the most over valued real estate in the world, values have only just started to decline. When the housing market crashes, Oz will be in a deep recession just like everyone else.
The economy is based around selling commodities to Japan and China and housing atm.
Both not looking too flash for the next few years at least.
The AUD is simply bouncing after being technically oversold, but fundamentals are against it in the medium term.
The Labour government has managed to obliterate the surplus in a few short months and will soon run a deficit.