ozcutty2

Berkowitz, Rodriguez and Pabrai: Examining Q3 Filings

LUK does have a lot of investments that once looked like stellar performers but now look like dogs, i.e. copper mine, iron ore mine
In fact none of their businesses look very recession proof. I guess the plastics business will do better with low oil (if they still have someone to sell their product to).
However they are smart guys and raised capital early so have $3 billion or so on hand.
They will probably do well with that capital but next qtr results will be horrible and they will probably have to mark-to-market their fortesque shares. Which i believe they paid A$7.50 for, after touching $A60 they have crashed to A$2.27. Goodbye billion dollar profit!
LUK shares have been over-valued for the last 8 years, now back to more historical prices of well below book value. Apart from 1992 and 1999-2007 period they always traded below book value.
Worth buying at $17? not sure, certainly better value but they could go lower.
Very lumpy earning make this a long termer

Dow Price Targets from Last November

What a joke analysts really are. I watched Bear Stearns and Countrywide get sold off cheap, yet analysts still had high target prices, ridiculous and a total waste of time.
My tip is to live as far away from Wall Street as possible and ignor this mob.