MKW

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

What worries me is that, while I enjoy the comparison to HAL9000, it's almost certainly giving the Powers That Be too much credit. For starters, I'd bet the software in question isn't running on some big, monolithic heavy iron, but more like the years-old Linux workstation under my desk. As such, I'm concerned that the actual level of sophistication of the programs running the market these days is, in reality, relatively low. I'm in IT and I've worked with all sorts of software, from Computational Fluid Dynamics and complex Computer Aided Design to, today, a web-based retailer. The problem with software is always error handling. I'm really worried about what happens when unexpected input starts coming in. I've got a funny feeling that real testing of this software was never a very high priority.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Note that as far as volume was concerned, GS and XLF were the whole show yesterday - and even they just managed to get up to volume which would have been considered average in mid-April.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

About there not being anyone interested in the market beyond Da Boyz... I don't know if you ever read Tyler Durden's posts on SA, but a couple weeks back he noted that institutional and individual investor volume on the major stock exchanges had sunk from an average 3.8 billion shares a few months ago to 1.8 billion shares. That left, as he put it, "a bunch of computers desperately trying to front-run each other" as the sole remaining source of market volume. Well, that and a certain large bank which likes to regularly shout "Boo!" in its own special way by dumping multi-million share market buy orders of SPY into the system.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I have to disagree with you, Dave... There is one potential stimulus to move the market higher - a certain large bank's secondary. Said bank has been so active with the late afternoon explosions in SPY that I think they have a lot of chits to call in. It might only be a ferocious, three-day rocket flight (like 1/2/02 to 1/6/02), but I think people discount the risk of a super-quick jam up back to S&P 950 at their own peril. After that, I don't know were the floor is.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The "Stick Save" into the end was of quite a bit different character than has been the pattern lately. For one thing, there were no spectacular blasts of volume on SPY taking the thing up most of a point in one tick - it's been a long time since we haven't seen at least one of those in a trading day. My sense was that the buying efforts which took us off the bottom were probably trading programs trying to get ahead of the typical 2:00 and/or 3:00 and/or 3:30 and/or 3:50 and/or 3:58 Gargantuan, Market Dislocating SPY Buy Orders Courtesy of JPM. Today had a totally different texture. I'm wondering if, now that GS and JPM, et. al. have repaid TARP, if there will be less urgency to keep the market propped.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

About the stick save at the end. Are you implying it wasn't because Individual Investors Everywhere find the market is offering such compelling value, especially in financials?


LOL!!!!!!!

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More

I'm sorry, Pelosi's speech was inappropriate, but any Republican congresspeople who decided to change their vote (and in the process risk setting dynamite at the foundation of the economy) due to it need to be demoted to something more appropriate to their judgment and maturity level. Junior High School comes to mind.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Certainly a relief rally once the bailout passes; but these are getting shorter and shorter. After a year of watching absolutely gonzo rocket blasts up in the market any time the piddliest little piece of We-Can-Maybe-Spin-It-A... news (Dow up 150, 200 intraday because McDonalds raised its dividend, anyone?) it's actually kind of a relief to see some actual skepticism burrowing its way into the market. It gives me hope the market can get back to health, eventually.