Nagesh Mandalik

The Indian Economy and Gold Imports

I am surprised by your assessment “The Indian economy was always in bad shape”. I do not understand your logic.

The Indian GDP has grown at over 9% for 4 years in a row. Even after taking into account the impact of the steep hike in crude oil prices(softened recently to $120 a barrel), and the US banking crisis, the average analyst estimates for India GDP growth are pegged at 7.5 to 8% for Fiscal 2009. The Indian economy is on pretty solid ground even when the global economy is challenged. India is partly (not completely) shielded from the weakness in the global economy by the Domestic consumption and savings growth that continue to be strong.
The Global economy, Crude oil prices, changes in business environment and political uncertainty will continue to have an impact on India’s economy just as it does to any other economy. However, the strong fundamentals of the Indian Economy and its vibrant Corporations and entrepreneurs will be the main drivers that will fuel excellent long term growth.

Now let us look at the Indian stock market in numbers. Why did the SENSEX fall by 40% from the 21000 level? At 21000 BSE was overstretched in the first place and a correction very much warranted. With the market correction, Sensex today is at 15117. The Sensex is trading at a forward PE of 15X (FY09). The historical forward PE for the Sensex is 14X. However, with the revenues and profits growing at a higher rate than in the past (pre-2003), a forward PE of 16X would be very much justified. So I expect the Sensex to be well past 16000 by April 2009. (Well past 16000 because it will start discounting FY10 earnings by that time)

Is there a key indicator that the Indian Corporate sector is still doing reasonably well? Corporate tax collections have shown a more than healthy growth of 50% in the first 4 months (Apr-Jul 09) of fiscal 2009(Rs 41,598 crore as against Rs 27,718 crore in fiscal 08). Corporations pay advance taxes based on expected earnings. The net earnings of the SENSEX 30 companies grew by 17% in Q1FY09 with revenue growth of 29% YOY. Corporations

The importance of agriculture: To put the Indian economy in perspective, the contribution of the major sectors to the Indian economy GDP is as follows: Services 53%, Industries 30%, and Agriculture 17%. Note that Agriculture, where growth has averaged around 2.5% over last several years, accounts for just 17% of GDP today and plays a limited role in overall GDP growth.
The reason agriculture is very important to India is because about 60% (70% is incorrect) population is dependent on agriculture. Hardship to 60% of the population is indeed very painful. The Indian politicians are very much aware of this challenge and will make all the noises and take dramatic (sometimes incorrect) steps to address the challenge. 60% of votes come from this population; Indian politicians need no bigger incentive to take action!

TO sum it up, I am confident that the Indian economy and the stock market will provide excellent long term growth and the current drop in stock prices is a great buying opportunity for anyone with a time horizon of over 3 years. The government and Indian businesses would do well to give an extra fillip to Agriculture to make the growth more inclusive.