JBP

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

Flow5-

What investment is good for stagflation as you predict?

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

Bofah,

One word on commodities, Asia. They were basically non-existent in the 70's and we hadn't reached peak oil at that time. World population keeps growing while commodities are being squeezed whether it's from limited sources or the high production costs to run mines. Food, cotton, etc. included. Yet, I'm glad people believe the way yo do because you have to have losers to have winners. I just think my case along with others is much more compelling than yours. This world is not coming to an end... Good luck.

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

One independent analyst who does an excellent job tracking the growth of the money supply is John Williams. Many decades ago, money supply measures such as M2 and M3 were regularly reported. For some reason, the government stopped reporting M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, some years ago. Fortunately, the statistics and formulae needed to calculate M3 are easily available. Williams has taken up the slack and continues to calculate and publish M3.

The most fundamental monetary aggregate also calculated by Williams is called the adjusted monetary base, which measures very liquid forms of money such as bank notes and bank reserves. In his latest missive, Williams points out that the monetary base has recently exploded at a rate unprecedented in history -- up 38% year-over-year. Not even in the 1930s was so much money created so quickly. In fact, the only other time the monetary base grew anywhere near this quickly was during the build-up for World War II, when we needed a lot of cash to convert factories into making armaments.

Williams point is that all this cash is eventually going to work its way into the economy. The good news is that banks will have unprecedented amounts of money to lend, which will make them willing to lend more money at much lower rates. The Fed Funds rate will likely drop to 1% this week. Considering that banks can borrow money at the Fed Funds rate, deposit it at the Fed, and earn interest on those deposits, they will have access to virtually free money. So once the psychological impact of the current financial crisis wears off, we will be faced with an unprecedented rise in credit and monetary largess.

The next act in our economic drama could go one of two ways. One possibility is that all this new money will never find its way into the economy, because it will be overwhelmed by psychological factors, such as fear, which will make people stop borrowing and spending and plunge the world into a horrific depression accompanied by deflation.

However, I doubt that will happen. It's just not as likely as the alternative.
Instead, the most likely scenario is one of horrific inflation...

I expect a turnaround will occur in the near future in which the price of oil soars $2 for every $1 that it fell since last spring. Inflation may not hit record levels right away, but it will in time.

Prices of all commodities will soar. Gold especially...