JBP

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

Flow5-

What investment is good for stagflation as you predict?

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

Bofah,

One word on commodities, Asia. They were basically non-existent in the 70's and we hadn't reached peak oil at that time. World population keeps growing while commodities are being squeezed whether it's from limited sources or the high production costs to run mines. Food, cotton, etc. included. Yet, I'm glad people believe the way yo do because you have to have losers to have winners. I just think my case along with others is much more compelling than yours. This world is not coming to an end... Good luck.

Don't Be Fooled - Inflation is Coming

One independent analyst who does an excellent job tracking the growth of the money supply is John Williams. Many decades ago, money supply measures such as M2 and M3 were regularly reported. For some reason, the government stopped reporting M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, some years ago. Fortunately, the statistics and formulae needed to calculate M3 are easily available. Williams has taken up the slack and continues to calculate and publish M3.

The most fundamental monetary aggregate also calculated by Williams is called the adjusted monetary base, which measures very liquid forms of money such as bank notes and bank reserves. In his latest missive, Williams points out that the monetary base has recently exploded at a rate unprecedented in history -- up 38% year-over-year. Not even in the 1930s was so much money created so quickly. In fact, the only other time the monetary base grew anywhere near this quickly was during the build-up for World War II, when we needed a lot of cash to convert factories into making armaments.

Williams point is that all this cash is eventually going to work its way into the economy. The good news is that banks will have unprecedented amounts of money to lend, which will make them willing to lend more money at much lower rates. The Fed Funds rate will likely drop to 1% this week. Considering that banks can borrow money at the Fed Funds rate, deposit it at the Fed, and earn interest on those deposits, they will have access to virtually free money. So once the psychological impact of the current financial crisis wears off, we will be faced with an unprecedented rise in credit and monetary largess.

The next act in our economic drama could go one of two ways. One possibility is that all this new money will never find its way into the economy, because it will be overwhelmed by psychological factors, such as fear, which will make people stop borrowing and spending and plunge the world into a horrific depression accompanied by deflation.

However, I doubt that will happen. It's just not as likely as the alternative.
Instead, the most likely scenario is one of horrific inflation...

I expect a turnaround will occur in the near future in which the price of oil soars $2 for every $1 that it fell since last spring. Inflation may not hit record levels right away, but it will in time.

Prices of all commodities will soar. Gold especially...

One Last Decline, Then the Rebound in Gold

Lionheart,

So what is your prediction for gold?

Gold and the Dollar: Putting the Relative Cart Before the Relative Horse

8.19.2008
Commodities…Buy the Dips!

Commodities…Buy the Dips!
By James Rogers

The commodity bull market has a long way to go. This bull market is not magic. It's not some crazy "cycle theory" I have. It does not fall out of the sky. It's supply and demand. It's simple stuff.

In the 80s and 90s, when people were calling you to buy mutual fund and stocks, no one called to say. "Let's invest in a sugar plantation." No one called and said, "Let's invest in a lead mine." Commodities were in a bear market and in a bear markets people do not invest in productive capacity. They never have. Perhaps they should have, but they've never done it throughout history and probably never will. There has been only one lead mine opened in the world the last 25 years. There's been no major elephant oil fields [of more than a billion barrels] discovered in over 40 years.

Many of you were not even born the last time the world discovered a huge elephant oil field. Think about all the elephant fields in the world that you know about. Alaskan oil fields are in decline; Mexican oil fields are in rapid decline; the North Sea is in decline. The UK has been exporting oil for 27 years now. Within the decade, the UK is going to be a major importer of oil again. Indonesia is a member of OPEC. OPEC stands for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Indonesia is going to get thrown out because they no longer export oil, they are now net importers of oil. Malaysia has been one of the great exporting countries in the world for decades. Within the decade, Malaysia is going to be importing oil. 10 years ago, China was one of the major exporters of oil, now they are the 2nd largest importer of oil in the world. Oil fields deplete, mines depletes. This is the way the world's been working for a few thousand years and it will always work this way. So supply has been going down for 25 years.

Meanwhile, you know what's happening to demand. Asia's been booming. There are three billion people in Asia. America's growing. Most of the world has been growing for the last 25 years. So supply has gone down and demand has gone up for 25 years. That's called a bull market.

One of the things you'll find if you go back and do your research is that whenever stocks have done well, such as the 1980s and 90s, commodities have done badly. But conversely, you find that whenever commodities have done well, such as the 1970s, stocks have done poorly. I have a theory as to why this always works, but it doesn't matter about my theory. The fact is that it always works this way and it's working this way now.

So before I set off to my second trip around the world, I came to the conclusion that the bear market in commodities was coming to and end. So I started a commodities index fund. [Editor's note: An ETN based on the Rogers International Commodity Index trades on the AMEX under the symbol: RJI.] This is an index fund. I do not manage it. It's a basket of commodities we put in the corner. If it goes up we make money; if it goes down we lose money. But since Aug 1st 1998, when the fund started, it is up 471%.

I [mention this index] to show you that the commodity bull market is not something that will happen someday. It's in process right now, and it's going to go on for years to come, because supply and demand are out of balance. And by the time we get to the end of the bull market, commodities will go through the roof. There will be setbacks along the way. I don't know when or why, but I know they are coming, cause markets always work that way. Commodities have done 15 times better than stocks in this decade and they're going to continue that [trend].

You remember my little girls. My 5-year old never owns stocks or bonds; she only owns commodities. She's very happy owning commodities. She doesn't care about stocks and bonds, but she knows about gold. I assure you, she knows about gold.

Some of you probably diversify, or believe in diversification. I do not diversify; I am not a fan of diversification. This is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves. But you're not ever going to get rich diversifying. I assure you. But if you DO diversify, commodities are the best anchor because they are not going to do what the rest of your assets are going to do.

I will give you one brief case study about oil, because it's one of the most important commodities. Some of you know that oil in Saudi Arabia is owned by a company called ARAMCO. It was nationalized in the 70s. They threw out BP and Shell and Exxon. But the last Western company to leave did an audit [of Saudi oil reserves] and came to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia had 245 billion barrels of oil. Then in 1980, after 10 years, Saudi Arabia suddenly announced that it had 260 billion barrels of oil. Every year since 1988 – 20 years in a row - Saudi Arabia has announced, "We have 260 billion barrels of oil."

It is the damndest thing. 20 years; it never goes up; it never goes down, and they have produced 67 billion barrel of oil in this period of time. When nuts like me go to Saudi, we ask, "How can this be? How can it be that they always have 260 billion barrel of oil?" (By the way, last year they said they have 261 billion barrel of oil). And the Saudis say, "You either believe us or you don't," and that's the end of the conversation.

I have never been to the Saudi oil fields, and even if I had, I wouldn't know what I was looking at. But I do know something is wrong. I know that every oil country in the world has a reserve problem, except Saudi Arabia of course. I know that every oil company in the world has declining reserves. So I know that unless someone discovers a lot of oil quickly, the surprise to most people is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes eventually. That is the supply side. Let's look at the demand side.

The Indians use 120th as much oil as their neighbors in Japan and Korea use. The Chinese use 1/10th as much per capita. There's 2.3 billion people in India and China alone. Well, the Indians are going to get more electricity. The Indians are going to get motor scooters. They are going to start using more energy, so are the Chinese. But if the Indians just doubled the amount of oil used per capita, they would still use only 1/10th of what the Koreans use. If the Chinese doubled their oil use, they would still be using only 1/5th what the Japanese and the Koreans are using. So you can see what kind of pressures there are on the demand side for oil and energy, at a time of terrible stress on the supply side. These are simple things.

So I would urge you are to take a lesson from my little girls. My little girls are learning Chinese. My little girls are getting out of the US dollar. My little girls own a lot of commodities. I would urge you to do the same.


As always, be sure to do your own research to determine what best suits your goals and strategy. Whatever you choose, gold and currency diversification are a great place to start, so be sure to check 'em out.
Posted by Pipo at 6:55 AM 0 comments
Labels: jim rogers, jim rogers blog, jim rogers videos

More Correlations: Oil and the Dollar (and Gold)

CLH,

I bought tech in the mid 90's and sold in 99, then bought a bunch of condos in Miami and sold them all in 2004, then I bought gold and sold at $1020 in March just like you. I then bought DZZ (the stock you mention just about every time you post) and sold Friday and made a killing. Sounds almost as ridiculous as some of your statements on this board....

Correction: Beware of Taxes with Currency, Precious Metal ETFs

Obama has mentioned 25% on long term capital gains, so 28% will be right in line...