Ryan Yamada

Wagoner's (GM) fatal fault: his inability to embrace change. Or was it his arrogance? Maybe he just wasn't enough of a sonofabitch.

The post-mortem may reveal death by one flaw, but a terminal diagnosis on all three. Why look for just one reason?

"Obama is not the anti-Bush," writes Bloomberg's Kevin Hassett. "He is Bush on steroids." How else to explain their policies to "spend like a drunken sailor and don’t pay for it"?

I need a job. I can polemicize with the best of them. Hire me Bloomberg!

Despite what a CNBC decabox refers to as a 'triple tsunami' of bad news today ([[C]], GNP, [[GE]]), U.S. markets are staying relatively dry. DJIA -0.08% to 7176. S&P -0.55% to 748. Nasdaq +0.53% to 1398.

How is GE cutting its dividend a bad thing? No one holding GE right now could reasonably think they could sustain a dividend that consumed 80%+ of FCF. Thank God I don't own a TV.

2009 stock market expectations run the gamut, David Gaffen says, with forecaters anticipating anywhere from a stellar, 45% turnaround to another dreary year of grinding losses. One commonality: a lack of conviction in their estimates.

I forecast that the current humility will be ephemeral, and plenty of analysts will continue to eat crow in 2009.

James Picerno on market myopia: "Looking at where we're headed several years from now looks about as relevant as studying the moons of Saturn. But the future keeps coming, even if we're not looking..."

As a former astronomer, I find this offensive. I will personally see to it that Encleadus takes a methane/ice barf on Picerno's house.

Of course, his point is precisely right.

The race to zero: Central bank interest-rate cuts since Aug. 2007 (graphic).

Agreed - this is quite graphic.

Assessment of Sector Outlooks

Geoff,

Another great article. I was about to ask you if you've ever taught academically; your bio says you have a PhD. Did you do engineering?

- ex-astronomer

Floyd Norris is also liveblogging the bailout bid. Less prolific than Heidi Moore, but lots of biting commentary. "Do they really want to insist on a precedent that lets the executive branch do something for an industry that was hardly mentioned when the law was passed?"

Interesting that shortly after SA posted this on the feed, Heidi's comments got a lot more interesting. Either things are devolving into a circus/lovefest, or SA has a lot of pull among WSJ journalists.

Leverage Obama's First 100 Days with Covered Calls on GE

Agree with author. Implied volatility premiums mean that covered calls are a great way of making cash. Still need to protect yourself in case Immelt decides GE can't guarantee the dividend through 2009.

Profiting from Risk Aversion

Geoff,

You're about one of three SA authors I read at this point. On behalf of quants everywhere, thank you.

Where Will GE's Jeff Immelt Be at 2 PM Today?

Good article - worthless comments.

UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?

@ Aalan - I agree you need to look at the underlying index. The drag due to the structure of these ETFs makes it necessary to do TA on the underlying index, not the ETF.

@Mllambo - be careful about the lower highs. I haven't checked this for QID, but a similar phenomenon appears for SDS, the ultrashort S&P 500 ETF. The debt/equity structure that makes it possible for the ETF to replicate twice the inverse of the Nasdaq over short time periods makes the NAV have a slight bias downward in a sideways market. This means that QID will have a lower close price if the Nasdaq hits 1500 a month from now than its present price, barring a strong deviation from NAV. Reinforces point Aalan makes above - analyze the underlying index.


On Nov 15 03:00 PM Mllambo wrote:

> There is a MACD divergence in the chart, from roughly Oct 13th until
> now. This most often tells us which way it's going to break, which
> is down. However, you have to wait for the 20 day to roll over.
> This could take awhile. We've also seen a lower high on the chart.

UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?

The Ultra ETFs aren't meant to track a multiple of the index over long periods. The prospectus is clear that it tracks only a multiple of short-term ranges (a policy of replicating the day's price action, but the above comment about it doing reasonably well for periods under a week jives with my experience).

I'd recommend reading up on the analysis done by other SA posters on the structure of the ETFs - good to know before putting money into them. I still find them valuable for trading.

Concentrated Solar Power & the New ITC: Big Winners of the Bailout Package

Excellent article - though you might be panned in the comments for not offering price entry and exit points, I appreciate the background and up-to-the-minute analysis on the legislative side. I don't know about the utilities, but CSP has gotten a LOT of positive attention on the academic side.