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charliezap

charliezap
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  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    We are getting off topic by going geo-political. In the belief that I can more profitably spend my time elsewhere, I am unchecking the box and signing off.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    CapitalOne upgraded American Realty Capital (NASDAQ: ARCP) from Equal-weight to Overweight with a price target of $12.00. (StreetInsider)
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude drops after bearish Saudi comments [View news story]
    Meant to say, "Iran is 4 times larger than Iraq, and has 2 1/2 times the population, which is 71 million."
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude drops after bearish Saudi comments [View news story]
    ""The problem with Iran is it needs to be flattened out.""

    This is a really enlightened approach! I'm signing up to follow you!

    Iran is 4 times larger than Iraq, and has 2 1/2 times the population, which is . We tried to flatten Iraq, and we know how that turned out. The urban population, 70% of the people, live an American lifestyle (they don't wear burkas, and they shop in malls and supermarkets). The majority of the people have a favorable impression of the USA. Let's bomb them. We'll teach them something about Christian values!
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Swap My Citi Shares With HSBC Shares? [View article]
    Thanks for responding.

    I understand that a healthy dividend often regarded in the financial press as "shareholder friendly". This may mean a high payout ratio. But a high payout ratio means that less capital is retained for reinvestment, and this may lead to lower growth in earnings, and, finally, lower capital appreciation. So, I'm implying that the stock with the higher total return is ultimately the more "shareholder friendly". Total Return usually means the combined total of dividends and capital appreciation -- see below for a simple definition from the_street_dot_com.

    Total Return Definition: Return on investment including price appreciation with reinvested dividends or income over a specific period of time.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    ""Attempting to determine market value would involve individual real estate appraisals of each of ARCP's properties.""

    REIT analysts routinely determine NAV for the companies they cover, but they don't need individual appraisals. They estimate the market values of a REIT's property holdings by applying appropriate (comparable) cap rates to the NOI from the various asset types in the portfolio.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +22% premarket after 60 Minutes report [View news story]
    " The US government is not smart enough to subsidize anything important, just welfare."

    Thought you guys were free marketers -- wanted the government to get out of the way!
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude drops after bearish Saudi comments [View news story]
    David, you are probably wrong. The administration appears likely to approve a bill to lift the ban.

    http://read.bi/1xYr4hY
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Swap My Citi Shares With HSBC Shares? [View article]
    Tudor's article said: ""If you had invested in both these companies 5 years ago, here is how you would have done:"". Then the article shows a stock chart running from 2000-2008. Please help me. How does the chart show how I would have done if I had invested in C or HSBC 5 years ago?

    Tudor's article said: ""Which of the two banks are [sic] the friendliest towards shareholders?"" Somehow the article posits that the bank that has the higher dividend payout ratio is "more friendly" toward shareholders, and analyses dividend payments under the managements that existed from 2001 to 2008. But others might argue that the bank with the greatest total return is "more friendly". In the latter case, dividends are only one part of the equation, the other being growth in the stock price, which might in turn be a function of a higher earnings retention rate. Anyway, I am not convinced that, in choosing stocks, one should put much weight on the payout ratio.

    Tudor's article said: ""Which of the two banks are best managed? This is probably the most important question when we try to glance into the future. I would like to illustrate the difference between the two with some bar graphs, showing the number of employees, and how much net profit they generate per headcount.""

    Tudor avers that Citi is better managed because in the past 2 years, Citi managed to generate more profit per employee than HSBC. This is another novel approach in my view, but what does it prove? There is no indication of what sectors each bank might operate in, commercial banking vs investment banking, or wholesale vs retail, or industrial vs consumer, etc. There is no indication of what countries the banks operate in, where the people requirements might differ. Without this, the profit per employee indicator is meaningless, IMO. Why not use a more traditional indicator, such as ROE or ROA? (Of course, without deeper analysis, these indicators also have their shortcomings.)

    Finally, Tudor gives us a "SWOT" analysis. Unfortunately, this boils down to a series of purely subjective judgments on so-called strengths and weaknesses. Again, not convincing.

    Disclosure: I am long Citigroup.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +22% premarket after 60 Minutes report [View news story]
    Thanks for the link to an excellent article.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    rustam, yours reasons for a possible recovery in oil prices are nothing but wishful thinking. The oil price will only recover when supply and demand again come into balance. The most likely event to achieve this is a severe financial squeeze on US shale oil producers. If you think Wahington lobbyists, the Rockefellers, Dow-Jones, or GDP control can control the price of oil, then. I have a bridge to sell you.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    Corporations, British or otherwise, are under no obligation to maintain common share dividends. BP cut the div after the Macondo incident and they could do it again.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    The 67% is based on estimates of 2015 earnings, which are down by half from 2014 results. Those who think that the payout ratio is still 35% have lulled themselves to sleep with the historical record mantra.

    The next quarterly earnings will be a big wake up shock!
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lodging REIT Showdown: March Madness Continues [View article]
    Frankly, a lousy way to pick REITs. No consideration given to value. No FFO, no NAV.

    The hotel business is inherently cyclical. In a recession, occupancy and ADRs go down sharply. Most the the REITs in this analysis were not even around in 2008, yet the ones that were get black marks for cutting the divi. How would the newer REITs have acted in 2009?

    Not very convincing, IMO.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    alex22288,

    I think the author has made an very careful and astute analysis of where XOM stands now. Regarding, the oil price, I think Rex Tillerson's quotes are the most sensible I have seen on the supply-demand situation and where the oil price stands now. You are obviously long XOM stock and your comment amounts to nothing more than wishful thinking. You have absolutely no substantiation for the idea that oil is going to revert to $125 at any time in the near future.

    XOM stock remains in a downtrend and will likely hit $80 before it hits $90. On the crude oil price, XOM has traditionally taken a conservative view in its project planning and capital allocation. Supply and demand may come into balance in the second half of 2015, and XOM's stock may bottom out at the $80 level. Or it may not. A lot of supply has been held up in troubled parts of the world, and it may start to come on line -- this includes Iran, Iraq, Libya, Russia, Venezuela, etc.

    Have a good day.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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