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charliezap

charliezap
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  • My Intelligent REIT Of The Week: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers [View article]
    Mike, this is plain old real estate selling at a high price. Has nothing to do with Berkshire Hathaway.

    EXR sells at 24 X 2015 est FFO, at the very top end among equity REITs. To look at the reciprocal, the FFO yield is just 4.2%. At the current price of $70, it has already reached the analysts' mean target price. Even with the div increase, the yield is only 3.3%. Would be highly sensitive to higher yields on treasuries, which I predict for the 2ne half of this year.

    Looking at risk to reward ratio, this is one I am staying away from.
    May 30, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Clear Value For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    """SUNE and SCTY are financial house of cards- practically mini-Enrons."""

    No. These things, SUNE and SCTY, are real. And SUNE has led the way in finding a way to finance solar installations that just sit there for 30 years and produce electric power. Financing is through the yieldco unit, TerraForm (TERP).

    There is practically nothing on the ExxonMobil website about research on alternative fuels, except biofuels from algae, which are probably a long way from commercial practicality. There is a lot of research on oil and gas extraction, however.
    May 29, 2015. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Clear Value For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    """They are an energy company after all."""

    Some at XOM may believe that they are an energy company. Some investors might use the same rationalization. But the reality is that XOM is an oil company -- 90% of their earnings are from oil and gas operations.

    In the past, some oil companies, including Exxon and Mobil, had alternative energy operations, such as coal, uranium and solar. But mostly, they gave up on such thoughts. You might think that Exxon can go out and buy any old solar company now, but I think it is just too late. Even though solar is still a very small percentage of the total energy market, solar installations have been growing spectacularly, and will continue to do so. But Exxon is not a part of it.

    Would Exxon go out and buy an industry leader, such as SunEdison (SUNE)? I don't think so. To do so, they would have to pay a large premium for a company that, at this time, is running at a loss. XOM is still smarting over the XTO acquisition. I don't see it.

    Meanwhile, take a look at the 5-year weekly chart for SUNE; then click on 'Analysts', and you will see what I mean.

    http://tinyurl.com/olj...

    Disclosure: Long SUNE, but nervous about the recent run up. Also long independent oil producers, including CRC, RRC, and WLL.
    May 29, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Intelligent REIT Of The Week: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers [View article]
    Correction.

    Liabilities / EV = 33.7%.
    May 28, 2015. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Intelligent REIT Of The Week: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers [View article]
    Perhaps Brad used the ratio of Debt to Enterprise Value (EV), or Debt to Total Market Capitalization, which makes more sense for REITs than the traditional Debt to Total Debt to Total Liabilities + Equity.

    My source shows, for the latest quarter,

    Total Liabilities = 1629.2 million
    Total Liabilities + Equity = 2128.9
    Enterprise Value = 4827.4
    EV / Liabilities = 33.7%.
    May 28, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Drop Unexpectedly In April - Underlying Data Is Bearish [View article]
    """This is false as you must look at who is buying the homes its not people that want to own and live in homes its small investors."""

    Ant, small investors don't buy new homes -- they buy existing homes, often distressed units, to rehab, rent, or flip. New homes don't provide the rehab opportunity, and new homes are pretty fully priced, so there is less of an opportunity to flip. Sometimes, in a community that is just getting started there may be a chance to buy at a discount, but most quality builders do not want to attract "investors" to their communities.

    """New home sales are nothing like they were in the past . . """

    Exactly! And that's why this housing recovery is far from over and still has a long way to go. Looking at "normal times", that is, the period from 1970 to 2000, which excludes the housing "bubble", annual sales of new single family homes sold averaged 662,000 annually, which is a far cry above the latest monthly (saar) of 517,000. Meanwhile job growth is accelerating (an average of 250,000 in the past 12 months, vs 206,000 in the previous 12 months) and mortgage rates remain at low levels. As a result, household formations are gaining rapidly, 1.7 million in the latest quarter. This reduces vacancies and spurs demand for both single and multi-family housing.

    Before this cycle is over, we will see a year with sales above the "normal" of 662,000 that I cited above.

    If you are short homebuilders, my advice is to take your losses and cover your shorts!
    May 28, 2015. 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources Corporation - An Oil Play That Might Be Worth The Risk [View article]
    Long CRC. Sells at big discount to NPV, according to Kurt Wolff at mcdep dot com.
    May 28, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Intelligent REIT Of The Week: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers [View article]
    A great company. Plus, we live, for half the year, just 10 miles from their largest and very successful mall, in Riverhead, NY.

    But is it a great stock? IMO, the dividend @ 3.3%, is just too low for a REIT. But there is some support on the chart @ $33.50, and analysts have a median target of $37. May be sensitive to what the Fed does with interest rates, however.
    May 27, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Drop Unexpectedly In April - Underlying Data Is Bearish [View article]
    Many years ago I attended a conference where one of the NAHB economists gave a presentation on the low predictive power of the monthly existing home sales number. It was true then, and it is still true today.

    Since the release of the number, we have had new home sales and housing starts for April. Both are doing well, thank you. New home sales have trended up over the past year and rebounded in April from a dip in March. New home sales was the one number that predicted the 2008 recession! Housing starts in April were at the highest level since the end of 2007 (saar).

    http://bit.ly/1BoS37U (click on 1-year)

    http://bit.ly/1BoS37V, (click on 10-yr)

    I remain long LEN, SFP, and UCP.
    May 27, 2015. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    Oops. You are right, I should have said euro is at $1.092. But whether the euro continues down to $0.80 is another matter. In any event, CVX and XOM also have worldwide operations, and will be affected by exchange rates, just like RDS and BP -- and most oil trading is priced in $$$$.
    May 26, 2015. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    $ seems to have peaked at 1.145 euros on May 18, is now at 1.092.
    May 26, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    Pen, but my point is that demand for oil (say gasoline in USA, diesel fuel in Europe, jet fuel worldwide) is relatively inelastic. It takes at least a 50% rise in prices, and perhaps up to a 100% rise, to reduce demand by, say, 5%. That was my experience when I worked in the industry, and my observation is that that hasn't changed much. We are talking short to intermediate term, of course. Short term, people still gotta get to work, planes gotta fly the same schedules, etc. (In the longer term, people can switch to more efficient cars, or make capital investments that allow other substitutes.)

    Plus, a $$$$ rise would have virtually no impact on demand in the USA, which consumes almost 1/4 of the world's oil.
    May 25, 2015. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    """ . . the dollar has been a big factor. But the supply/demand imbalance is real. Ask Saudi Arabia and Russia."""

    I don't understand the theory that the rise in the $$$$ has been a factor in the oil price decline. After all oil is priced in $$$$. And oil demand is relatively inelastic wrt price. But I do believe that the supply/demand imbalance is real. Oil demand in developed countries has leveled off in the past 7-8 years, while US oil demand increased by some 80% in the same timeframe. Demand continued to gain in emerging markets, but a slowing in China last year proved to be the tipping point, leaving us where we are today -- at $60 per barrel.
    May 25, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    """I believe if one must buy a non-US producer, at this time I'd take BP."""

    I know you meant "non-US BASED" producer, but it happens that, according to the 2014 annual report and not counting production by equity interests such as Rosneft, BP and its subsidiaries produce more crude in the USA than in any other country, 347 TBD in a total of 844 TBD. BP's share of equity accounting entities, mostly Rosneft, produce another 979 TBD, for a grand total of 1,823 TBD.

    Source: BP Form 20-F for 2014, page 222.
    May 25, 2015. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    """BP is a real bargain because they devastated the Gulf of Mexico 5 years ago."""

    And XOM is not a bargain because they devastated the Prince William Sound in Alaska, spilled oil from the Pegasus pipeline in Arkansas, had a spill in Yosemite, and another one now offshore Santa Barbara?

    If PS does have context in for large oils, why not sell COP?
    May 24, 2015. 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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