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  • Brace For A Big Sell-Off In BP  [View article]
    Some gas stations are completely independent and could, in theory, switch to any other supplier when their contracts are up. Most are owned by the oil companies and are leased to the dealers. These dealers cannot switch brands. A few gas stations are company owned and operated. In the past several years, the big companies have spun off their owned stations to to large independent marketers, such as Gulf.

    PS: The old Gulf Oil Company was sold off to Chevron many years ago. All that remains is the brand, now held by the new Gulf marketing company.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace For A Big Sell-Off In BP  [View article]
    BTW: Right now, crude oil is trading in the futures market at $32.75, up 9.6% on the day. Jump aboard! The train is leaving the station!
    Feb 3, 2016. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace For A Big Sell-Off In BP  [View article]
    You say "oil has bottomed", and yet you also say "Great article." But anyone who takes to heart the title and conclusion of the article would sell out at the bottom, which would be "not so great". I happen to think that the article is also "not so great" -- the future price of BP stock depends not in the slightest on 4th quarter results, nor on the Macondo spill, both items that the author covers in the article. But these things are in the classification of ancient history.

    The price of BP stock over the next year depends almost entirely on the price of crude oil. I looked in vain in the article, but there was absolutely no analysis of the supply/demand situation in crude oil. All I saw was the totally unsubstantiated statement: "I see the price of crude oil going below $25".

    Sorry, but that's just not good enough!
    Feb 3, 2016. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Exxon To Wake Up  [View article]
    """I think the chairman of Exxon has a point. There is no scientific evidence that human activity has a MATERIAL effect on climate."""

    Exxon may have shown skepticism on the topic of climate change in the past, back when Lee Raymond was chairman, and when there was much less evidence that "stuff" was happening, or could be attributable to human activities. But they have changed their position and now say: "The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect. There is a broad scientific and policy consensus that action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks."

    http://exxonmobil.co/1...
    Feb 3, 2016. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Exxon To Wake Up  [View article]
    @OlderThanDirt

    Did you actually read your 'RealClimateScience' link, especially the comments by Robert Weekes that follow the main article? Maybe if you did you would discover that the NASA data is as good as there is, and that the keepers of that data are doing a conscientious job. Or do you have another data source that proves NASA is wrong?

    Of course, if you want physical evidence, take a look at the melting glaciers in Greenland, and the melting Arctic ice. You'll be able to take a trip through the Northwest Passage quite soon now. Or do you have some other explanation for what's going on up there?
    Feb 3, 2016. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace For A Big Sell-Off In BP  [View article]
    """Cameron's govt . . . recently reduced the tax burden on said companies"""

    The reduction was peanuts. A 32% "supplemental charge" was reduced to 30%. This is on top of the regular 30% corporate tax.

    The UK govt is very unlikely to be in the position of bailing out BP. BP probably has more assets, people and profits in the US than in the UK. Plus, in the event BP goes belly up, the assets will continue to be operated, so most employees will retain their positions. Only the shareholders and bond holders will suffer. As for cutting or eliminating the dividend, they already did it, after the Macondo disaster.

    More likely though, BP will survive without govt assistance. The oil supply/demand balance will look better by the second half of this year. Production is likely to be down in 2016 in several countries, including Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, and the USA.

    On the charts, it looks like both Crude Oil and BP are in the process of forming a bottom. BP looks like it made its low below $28 10 days ago, and is now in an uptrend (by the daily MACD indicator). Anyone bailing out now would make their losses permanent.
    Feb 3, 2016. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Exxon To Wake Up  [View article]
    """ I think Exxon has simply ceased preaching . . what it truly believes , i.e., that man-made global warming is by no means proven or even probable, . . """

    @User

    This is from ExxonMobil's website:
    ----------------------...
    """Our position on climate change

    We have the same concerns as people everywhere – and that is how to provide the world with the energy it needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect. There is a broad scientific and policy consensus that action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks."""
    ----------------------...
    Let me repeat it for your benefit in case it has not sunk in: "Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect." Its on XOM's website. Do you actually think they are lying for PR reasons?

    http://exxonmobil.co/1...
    Feb 2, 2016. 04:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Exxon To Wake Up  [View article]
    @ sully, Can you provide a link?

    BTW, the NOAA link (item linked above via Bloomberg) sounds very plausible to me. It is exceedingly difficult for me to believe that all of the industrial activity of the past 150 years has not affected the earth's atmosphere, and therefore, the earth's climate. So if you have a scientifically valid reference that refutes the NOAA data, I would be highly interested.
    Feb 2, 2016. 04:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Energy Companies Are Being Added To U.S. Global Funds In Anticipation Of An Oil Rebalance?  [View article]
    """China, the largest oil consumer, actually imported a record amount of oil in December 2015."""

    While China may be importing rising amounts of oil, it is not true that China is the largest consumer. According to IEA data, China currently consumes about 11.5 million barrels daily. The US, on the other hand, currently consumes in excess of 19 MBD.
    Jan 27, 2016. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Security Woes Threaten OPEC's Second-Largest Producer  [View article]
    Thank you for an excellent review of the oil situation in Iraq. Iraq is probably just one of several countries where we will production declines in the current calendar year -- the list includes the US, China, Russia, and Venezuela. IMO, we will see a better supply/demand balance by 2H 2016. Prices will rise from current levels.

    But waiting for the better balance may take some patience. The API just reported a gigantic 11 million rise in US crude oil inventories!
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income And The Growth Rate  [View article]
    As the Brad Thomas says, and the article confirms, O has thrived through spread investing, that is, capitalizing on the spread between the cap rate on new investments and its weighted average cost of capital. This works especially well when the interest rate on its bonds is low and the price of its stock is high. But built into the stock price is an expectation on future growth, of FFO, etc, and that expectation is largely based on the historic record. Trouble is O has grown significantly, and is now among the 20 largest cap REIT's. So the question is, can O maintain the growth pace? Are there acquisition targets out there that are large enough to have an impact? What happens when interest rates move up further?

    O is a solidly well-managed company, but in the light of these questions, is it a solid stock? At an FFO multiple of 19, it is just too rich for me.

    As a value investor, I would rather go with LXP -- FFO multiple = 6.8, yield = 9.8%.
    Jan 23, 2016. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LA Times: California to probe whether Exxon lied about climate change risks  [View news story]
    @59482

    The US absolutely does not need to build any new refineries. We already export more products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, etc) than we import. In the latest reported month (October), 2.7 million barrels per day were exported, versus 0.67 MBD imported.

    http://1.usa.gov/TdUp8q

    Far better to maintain, modernize, and expand existing ones, which we have been doing for the past 30 years.
    Jan 22, 2016. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Mobil Is Still A Good Bet  [View article]
    Chart shows $37 crude oil price, but today its $27. XOM won't beat expectations!
    Jan 20, 2016. 07:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LA Times: California to probe whether Exxon lied about climate change risks  [View news story]
    Just proves that the California AG is just as political as the NY AG. Going after Big Oil is always a free lunch for politicians, but noting ever comes of these "investigations".
    Jan 20, 2016. 11:55 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude prices pare gains after API inventory data released  [View news story]
    Motley Fool predicting oil prices? Whoa!!!
    Dec 29, 2015. 08:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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