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charliezap

charliezap
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  • Until There's A Dividend, This REIT Remains A Pig In A Poke [View article]
    Brad, 62% of the 7,000+ companies in my AAII data base do not pay a dividend, including high market cap companies such as GOOGL, AMZN, and Berkshire Hathaway. Are"investors in these stocks simply engaged in "speculation"?
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Until There's A Dividend, This REIT Remains A Pig In A Poke [View article]
    Tbaby,

    A good link, but it shows GAAP net income, not taxable. Tax differs from GAAP in depreciation schedules, timing of writeoffs, etc; but with the GAAP losses shown, you can probably assume the tax books also show losses. I cannot recall any REIT that ever published its taxable income.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' (ARCP) CEO William Stanley Discusses on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Agree. They did not answer many questions. I guess they are "waiting for Glenn".
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' (ARCP) CEO William Stanley Discusses on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    They didn't answer many questions. They're "waiting for Glenn".
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital +2% post-earnings [View news story]
    On a GAAP basis, past earnings reports have shown minimal income/losses. Taxable income is probably minimal too -- they probably take higher depreciation deductions for tax than for books anyway. They could probably meet the 90% requirement with a very low payout versus AFFO. More likely they will pay 70-80% of AFFO, which according to today's report was $0.90. If they pay 75% and 2015 AFFO is $0.90, the annual div rate would be $0.675, for a 6.8% current yield.
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital +2% post-earnings [View news story]
    The difference, over a year, of compounding monthly versus compounding quarterly, is miniscule.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Standard Pacific Is Still A Good Bet At Its 52-Week High [View article]
    A good article, but housing starts depend on more than just low mortgage rates. Fortunately, for the past 15 months or so we have seen excellent job growth, averaging over 250,000 monthly, the best since the 1990's. Population growth + more paychecks will lead to growth in new household formations, which have lagged in recent years. But the article linked below is optimistic, citing research from Goldman Sachs and others. Goldman suggests that the household formation rate will pick up to 1.2 - 1.3 million pe year, leading to housing starts in the 1.5 - 1.6 million range, up about 50% from current levels.

    http://on.ft.com/1bEUwEX

    Disclosure: I am long SPF, LEN, and UCP.
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    Do you remember the 1989 crash and the S&L crisis in Dallas? Housing developments were dead, and 40% of S&L's in Texas went bust. There were distress office buildings all over. Over $300 million of S&L money went into the Stonebridge Ranch, a 5,000 acre residential development northeast of Dallas. After the housing collapse, the Resolution Trust Corp finally unloaded the property for $35 million!
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    Brad, this does not come up to the standard of your usually carefully researched report.

    1. External management conflicts with Blackstone group entities.
    2. High leverage -- bet on interest rate spreads.
    3. Material copied directly from investor presentation.
    4. Poor 3-year stock price performance.
    5. GDP chart that begins at trough of recession -- does not show what happens from peak to trough.
    6. Very short dividend history since restructuring.
    7. Risk that if rates rise, the borrowers will rush to refinance at fixed rates, and pay off the relatively short term BXMT loans -- BXMT's balance sheet and income statement will contract.
    8. Errors noted by a commenter above.

    I'll pass on this one, just as I passed on UDF. Great risk in UDF, IMO, is that Texas housing market will collapse under weight of oil industry job losses. I wanted to short UDF, but Schwab required a $50,000 minimum commitment and a high fee to boot (for borrowing the stock).
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Seeds Of The Next Oil Boom Are Being Sown As We Speak [View article]
    We are getting off topic by going geo-political. In the belief that I can more profitably spend my time elsewhere, I am unchecking the box and signing off.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    CapitalOne upgraded American Realty Capital (NASDAQ: ARCP) from Equal-weight to Overweight with a price target of $12.00. (StreetInsider)
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude drops after bearish Saudi comments [View news story]
    Meant to say, "Iran is 4 times larger than Iraq, and has 2 1/2 times the population, which is 71 million."
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude drops after bearish Saudi comments [View news story]
    ""The problem with Iran is it needs to be flattened out.""

    This is a really enlightened approach! I'm signing up to follow you!

    Iran is 4 times larger than Iraq, and has 2 1/2 times the population, which is . We tried to flatten Iraq, and we know how that turned out. The urban population, 70% of the people, live an American lifestyle (they don't wear burkas, and they shop in malls and supermarkets). The majority of the people have a favorable impression of the USA. Let's bomb them. We'll teach them something about Christian values!
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Swap My Citi Shares With HSBC Shares? [View article]
    Thanks for responding.

    I understand that a healthy dividend often regarded in the financial press as "shareholder friendly". This may mean a high payout ratio. But a high payout ratio means that less capital is retained for reinvestment, and this may lead to lower growth in earnings, and, finally, lower capital appreciation. So, I'm implying that the stock with the higher total return is ultimately the more "shareholder friendly". Total Return usually means the combined total of dividends and capital appreciation -- see below for a simple definition from the_street_dot_com.

    Total Return Definition: Return on investment including price appreciation with reinvested dividends or income over a specific period of time.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    ""Attempting to determine market value would involve individual real estate appraisals of each of ARCP's properties.""

    REIT analysts routinely determine NAV for the companies they cover, but they don't need individual appraisals. They estimate the market values of a REIT's property holdings by applying appropriate (comparable) cap rates to the NOI from the various asset types in the portfolio.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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