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charliezap

charliezap
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  • Why Chesapeake Energy Isn't A Takeover Target [View article]
    """ I often wonder if the advocates of wind and solar think the Tooth Fairy pays for the solar panels, windmills and costly transmission lines needed to carry electricity from solar and wind farms to places where the electricity is needed."""

    Of course the Tooth Fairy pays for these things, just like he pays for the costly nuclear plants, the costly steam generating boilers and turbines, and the costly transmission lines used in "conventional" power sources that either pose radiation risks or produce atmospheric pollution. (BTW: Although wind and solar are growing fast, they will account for a small percentage of the energy market for the foreseeable future. No realistic observer thinks otherwise.)

    """do they actually think that the laws of physics and thermodynamics don't apply to the conversion of solar hear [sic], or to the effect the pressure sink created at a concentration of windmills has on wind patterns in the upper atmosphere ???"""

    Please explain.
    Oct 28 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can This Promising And Undervalued Oil And Gas Bet Finally Break Out? [View article]
    Wikipedia is one source. The link below shows Delaware, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut pay much more in taxes than they receive back from the federal government, by $3,000 or more per capita.

    MS, WV, AL, SC, MT, ND, SD, and KY are all net beneficiaries of federal spending, to the extent of $3,000 per capita or more. Other beneficiaries include FL, LA, and AZ.

    TX ($2,200) and CA ($1.500) are net taxpayers.

    http://bit.ly/1dE76D7
    Oct 28 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Energy Isn't A Takeover Target [View article]
    1. There is probably about 1 actual BUY for every 200 rumors of a BUY.

    2. The reasons cited, especially the lack of free cash flow and the excessive debt, make it very unlikely that any oil major will take the bait, especially BP and RDS. We already have the example of XOM's ill-timed purchase of XTO. BP, RDS, CVX, do not need this sort of exposure at this time.

    3. Won't happen! Period.
    Oct 27 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    epp, you refer to "a drop of nearly 25% plus in crude demand in 5 years". I still don't know where you get this. The link in my previous comment shows a steady uptrend in refinery inputs (almost all crude) over the past 20 years.

    In an earlier comment, I estimated the trend in US gasoline consumption as being down 1.7% over the past 5 years. My more refined recent calculations estimated the decline rate at 1.0% to 1.2%. There is no doubt in my mind that a good part of the decline is due to better MPG as more efficient new cars replace older less efficient cars. I recently rented a mid-sized Kia Optima hybrid for a month, and easily attained 35-40 MPG in a mix of highway and in-town driving.

    No doubt some of the decline is due to the slow recovery from the 2008 recession. Average monthly employment is still down 1.3% from the peak year of 2007. But if that means 1.3% fewer people are driving to work, its only a portion of the 6.4% decline in gasoline consumption.
    Oct 26 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    Still not sure what your numbers on crude refer to, i.e., a drop from 21 MBD to 15.6 MBD.

    The EIA series on U.S. Refinery and Blender Net Input of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (linked below) shows a continuing increase over past years. While domestic product demand has dropped slightly, this has been more than offset by the fact that the US has gone from net product imports to net product exports in the past few years.

    http://1.usa.gov/163yVjl
    Oct 23 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Defending Your REIT Portfolio Against Market Folly [View article]
    ""What does move the price? Future FFO expectations . . ""

    . . and a lot of other things move REIT prices, including technicals, market psychology, . . and tax considerations.

    We had a mini-bubble in REITs that ran from mid-November 2012 to mid-May 2013. In this period IYR ran up by 25% and the price of O ran up by 40%. There was no corresponding increase in expectations for FFO. SKT ran up by 24%, but FFO in 2013 is expected to increase by only 11% over 2012. FFO for O was helped by a highly accretive acquisition, but 2013 FFO will be only up 20% compared with the price rise of 40%.

    What happened was that with treasuries paying virtually zero interest, many fixed income investors turned to REITs, MLPs, and blue chip stocks for yield. As REIT prices started to rise, momentum players jumped in, ignoring the price of the underlying real estate, while driving the price up further. In May, talk of tapering, and the threat of rising yields from competing bond investments, caused REIT prices to come back down to earth.

    http://yhoo.it/H9Cf3v

    I am also betting that there are more than a few traders who are "bagged", having bought during the bubble, and many will be selling in the weeks ahead. The tapering expectation will continue to be an overhang. I say buy O for the 5.2% yield, but forget about price appreciation for most REITs for now.
    Oct 22 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Defending Your REIT Portfolio Against Market Folly [View article]
    You only have to look at the chart to see there was a pretty strong correlation, except during the "flight to quality" period of 2009 when REITs collapsed while treasuries took off (spreads widened, drastically). If outlying periods like 2009 were excluded, the calculated correlation would be much stronger.
    Oct 22 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    epp, not sure what you are referring to.

    Regarding gasoline consumption, 9284 TBD (average of monthly numbers) were supplied to the US domestic market in 2007. In the 12 months ended in 2013, the average was 8692 TBD, a decline of 6.4%. Annualized over 5 1/2 years, this is a decline of 1.2% pa.

    http://1.usa.gov/NaBzLY
    Oct 21 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    The amount of products we can export is limited by our refining capacity. I think de-restricting crude oil exports would improve our balance of trade.
    Oct 20 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    I agree. The Jones Act needs to be repealed or modified. That would enable East Coast refineries to lower their crude costs. Refinery capacity in the USA is currently more than adequate to supply domestic needs. In fact, we are now a net exporter of products (primarily gasoline and diesel), whereas just a few years ago we were a net importer. Of course, the law that restricts exports of crude oil also needs to be repealed or modified.

    Also, demand for gasoline has been trending down since 2008, by 1.7% annually by my calculations. Some attribute this to the slow economic recovery, but I think higher MPG is the major factor.

    Little known fact: The US still imports more crude oil than it produces. In the latest month for which data is available, the US produced 7.5 MBD but imported 8.1 MBD.

    http://1.usa.gov/TdUp8q
    Oct 20 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Focus: Mack-Cali Realty Corporation [View article]
    Based on Citigroup report, CLI is selling at the biggest discount to NAV of any of the major office REITs. Citi estimates the NAV at $30.36. Also, CLI sells at the lowest FFO multiple. It looks like many investors hate the move into residential. And the suburban NYC office market remains weak. Citi sees slightly declining FFO over the next 2 years.

    Citi rates the stock a Hold, but they also say " . . we extend our relative call on BXP as a Most Preferred stock and CLI as a Least Preferred stock relative to our fundamental analyst coverage for the next 3 Months." Effectively, they are saying Buy BXP and Sell CLI, as a hedged bet.

    I say ve . ery interesting. At any rate, there is probably not much downside. Plus, technically, CLI appears to have bottomed (looking at MACD and RSI).

    Looks worthy of consideration as a Contrarian Buy to me.
    Oct 19 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong Companies In The Bakken Oil Play [View article]
    Re: ""Exxon-Mobile ""

    You can't even spell the name correctly. There is no hyphen and there is no 'e" at the end.

    Re: ""Exxon-Mobil - 33,148 barrels of oil"". For what period? One can guess that it refers to daily production. If so, Bakken production represents only 1.5% of XOM's total daily production of about 2.2 million barrels, and about 0.7% of XOM's BOE (includes gas, liquids, etc). Not enough to move the needle, as noted in a previous comment.

    Re: ""No new refineries have been built in the U.S. in the last 30 years."" A misleading statement, as many existing refineries have expanded. Operable capacity of US refineries has expanded from 15.0 millions of barrels per day in 1994 to 17.8 MBD in 2013. This is in spite of the many closings of smaller refineries and the profitability struggles of East Coast refineries, whose crude slate is based on higher priced Brent crude, and whose products must compete with product shipped from the Gulf Coast via the Colonial and other pipelines.

    http://1.usa.gov/H3Ei9l
    Oct 19 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I've Never Owned A Rolex, But Maybe It's Time To Invest In Taubman [View article]
    Re: Great article

    Since the close on 4/29 when the article was written, the price of TCO has declined by 16%. Too many investors fail to make the distinction between a "great company" and a great stock price for the company.
    Oct 18 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your REIT Safe? Introducing The BARS-IQ Test With Realty Income Corp. [View article]
    """P/FFO is the metric you want to use for REITs (a hard number to find on lots of site[s] . . """

    Here's how to get FFO numbers for equity REITs.

    Go to the Yahoo "Analyst Estimates" page. Look at the numbers in the first block, where it says "Earnings Est". The estimates on the first line are actually FFO per share estimates, NOT EPS estimates. The historic numbers on the last line are actually for FFO, NOT EPS. For verification, you can look at the latest quarterly earnings report.

    http://yhoo.it/WMFpv8
    http://bit.ly/1fG8UvU

    According to Yahoo the current year estimate is $2.43, for an FFO multiple of 17.3

    Some websites, such as Marketwatch, report EPS estimates. The marketwatch estimate for the current year is $1.00 per share, resulting in a PE of 42X. Not very helpful!
    Oct 17 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Company Has Paid Dividends Since Chester Arthur Was President [View article]
    """The company's return metrics on cash and capital are well above peers. """

    But this is all reflected in the earnings, the P/E, and the current stock price. It is not necessarily a predictor of the future prospects.
    Oct 17 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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