Seeking Alpha

charliezap

charliezap
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View charliezap's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Big Oil Dividend Analysis [View article]
    """ . . promises to authorities of adequate compensation and clean up convinced the Obama administration to hand them a life line. Do you know if there is any truth to BP being on the verge of bankrupsty [sic] during that time?"""

    I don't think BP got any favors from the Obama administration (although I tend to be an Obama supporter, Obama being better than the alternative). On the contrary, people in the Obama administration seemed to "use" the moment for political purposes, which actually contributed to the bankruptcy talk that some traders and short sellers seemed to delight in. But they underestimated BP's financial strength and the value of its oil holdings.

    Here is a typical hysterical article (and there were several others):
    http://bit.ly/1fP76jp

    The sellers drove BP down to $27 and below, which is where I bought BP for a good profit, eventually selling above $#40.
    Feb 28, 2014. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Dividend Analysis [View article]
    Again, with respect to Total, one should be aware of the French dividend withholding tax, which is 30%. Under the tax treaty with France, this can be reduced to 15% for some US shareholders by filing some additional paperwork with the French, although it is not clear to me whether the reduction applies only to institutional shareholders or also to individuals.

    Normally, a US shareholder can get a credit for foreign withholding taxes paid, when filing a US tax return. This applies if the shares are held in a taxable account, but there is no credit if the shares are held in an IRA. It is not clear to me if the credit is based on the full 30%, or only on 15%. There is probably an article somewhere on SA that goes into this.
    Feb 28, 2014. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Dividend Analysis [View article]
    More. The dividend chart is wrong with respect to TOT. In euros, there never was a dividend cut (at least since 2007). The chart did not take into account that during 2011, TOT went from paying semi-annual dividends to quarterly. In $$$, there were minor fluctuations due to exchange rates. Here is the complete record, by calendar year, since 2007:

    2013 €2.36 $3.179
    2012 €2.30 $2.974
    2011 €2.28 $3.204
    2010 €2.28 $3.131
    2009 €2.28 $3.161
    2008 €2.21 $3.142
    2007 €2.00 $2.683

    Euro: http://bit.ly/1kwq3I8
    $$$$: from Yahoo
    Feb 28, 2014. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Dividend Analysis [View article]
    In Euros, Total's dividend increased (by calendar year) from 2.28 in 2009 to 2.36 in 2013. There was never a decrease during this period, but there was a switch from semi-annual to quarterly payments in 2011. Fluctuations in payments on the ADR's are due to exchange rates. $ payments from 2010 through 2013 are as follows:

    3.179
    2.974
    3.204
    3.131

    Source: Total website, Yahoo.
    Feb 28, 2014. 08:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AngloGold Has Bottomed Out [View article]
    Not much in this article on which to base an investment decision, IMO. The article does not deserve a comment, but I have some time on my hands, so I'll go ahead anyway.

    1. The article discusses mining operations in Argentina, Mali, and the Congo area, but completely fails to mention mines in South Africa, Australia, and the USA, that make up about half of AU's production.

    2. Re: """ . . we have estimated that the enterprise value of AngloGold is close to $9.6 billion, while the outstanding shares are 390 million. From this, we can estimate that EV/share is close to $24.62 per share, and currently, the stock is being sold at a discount value of around $17 per share. This discount shows that the stock has growth potential."""

    This is financially absurd. The EV is comprised of a market cap of $6.82 + net debt of $2.76 billion. EV/share is a meaningless concept, since the debt is attributable to the debt holders, not the shareholders. So the stock is being sold at a discount to what exactly???

    BTW: Book value is $7.57 per share, according to Yahoo, so AU is at a considerable premium to book. However, I do not regard book value as an important determinant for a resources company such as AU. The value of the reserves that the company has owns is far more important than the depreciated accounting cost of what it took it took to find and develop those reserves.

    3. Re: """In the long run, inflation rates will rise and might prove difficult for even the Fed to control, this rise in inflation will push gold prices upwards."""

    There is little or no support for this statement, so, given the lack of credibility in the financial analysis, why should we put any weight on the opinion expressed here on inflation and the gold price.

    BTW: Based on the numbers in the article, the gold price is up about 11% since the low in December. Meanwhile, the stock price of AU is up about 58% since the low in December! This suggests that anyone buying now has missed the major part of the move. Why didn't you tell us to buy sooner?
    Feb 27, 2014. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs higher after Annaly results [View news story]
    You need to distinguish between mortgage REITs and equity REITs. mREITs are highly leveraged and invest in paper (mortgage securities). eREITs in invest in bricks and mortar (offices, apartments, retail stores, hotels, warehouses, etc) and use less leverage. If you're comfortable with interest rate spreads, the derivatives that are used to hedge interest rate risks, and fluctuating dividend rates, then go for mREITs. I'm not, so I do not "invest" in mREITs. I may make an occasional small trade, when I see an mREIT that looks oversold, either on a technical basis or relative to book value.

    Re: ""I look to the Fed and it's role in throttling the economy . .""

    Since 2009, the Fed has been doing the exact opposite, though its policy of quantitative easing. Currently, we are "tapering", but that actually means we are still easing, only not as much.

    Re: "". . the weather outlook . . is pretty much throttling the home building and remodling [sic] industries . .""

    Beware of extrapolating from January and February data! January and February have the most exaggerated multipliers for going from the actual monthly data to the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

    A portion of my portfolio is in eREITs, including CLI, DLR, HPT, SNH, and UMH. These are higher yielding, lower FFO multiple stocks, selling at or below NAV.
    Feb 26, 2014. 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are High-Yield Equities Riskier Than Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    This article is recommended reading for anyone undertaking the task of managing their own portfolio.
    Feb 26, 2014. 10:14 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons You Should Add Bank Of America To Your Portfolio [View article]
    A no-brainer?

    Only 13 of 34 analysts have a Strong Buy or Buy on BAC, compared with 26 out of 32 for Citi.
    http://yhoo.it/1hiYzVy
    Feb 24, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Is It One Of The Best Dividend Picks? [View article]
    Charts in the 2012 annual report of Imperial Oil appear to show that about 80% of IMO's net oil production is from tar sands, not from shale. The remaining 20% is conventional crude. IMO does have a small stake in shale gas production in the NWT, that produces some NGL's as a by-product.
    http://bit.ly/1c1ZivA

    Late to shale oil? Yes!
    Feb 24, 2014. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons You Should Add Bank Of America To Your Portfolio [View article]
    """Why do you believe the US economy will do better?"""

    Some people have been asking that question since the day that Obama was inaugurated (1/20/2009). The Dow that day closed at 7,949. A lot of people sold their stocks and bought bonds.

    Today the Dow is at 16,285, an approximately 5-year gain of over 104.8%, or 15.4% annualized. Those who focused on the negative lost out on a big stock market gain!
    Feb 24, 2014. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons You Should Add Bank Of America To Your Portfolio [View article]
    """Not to forget that Buffett still has $5B in the company."""

    Buffett seems to have lost his touch.
    http://tinyurl.com/k4g...
    Feb 24, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons You Should Add Bank Of America To Your Portfolio [View article]
    As of 1:10pm
    S&P, up 1.09%
    BAC, up 1.78%
    C, up 2.36%.
    Feb 24, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons You Should Add Bank Of America To Your Portfolio [View article]
    Ach, a surly response to a legitimate comment, IMO. I happen to agree with the observation about an excessive number of articles "pumping" BAC. Yet BAC sells at a premium to Tangible Book, while Citi (C) is at a discount. BAC is at 10X next year's earnings, while C is at 8.35X, according to Marketwatch. (BAC is at 18X on the basis of the last 12 months.)

    Citi has lagged recently, probably on account of the current concern about emerging markets. This will pass. BAC's ownership of Merrill does raise the excitement level, but holders of C can get that sort of appeal by adding Morgan Stanley (MS), which sells at 9.8X next year's earnings.

    Disclosure: Long C, considering adding MS.
    Feb 24, 2014. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Regardless Of The Ventas Downgrade, I'll Sleep Well At Night [View article]
    The Yahoo "Analyst Estimates" page, which is based on FFO per share (not EPS), shows 5-year projected growth rate of 5.67%. Consensus mean target price is 62 (on the Analyst Opinion page).

    REITs are obligated to pay out 90% of taxable income in order to maintain REIT status. Considering this, it is unrealistic to expect anything near double digit long term growth, especially for an established large REIT such as VTR, IMO.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Is Fairly Valued Compared To Historical Standards [View article]
    A strong case of not being able to see the forest for the trees, IMO. The author looks at margins, operating expenses, and 4 different ways of computing PE's to come to his conclusions. Mostly backward looking.

    A new report from Citigroup estimates that 35% to 40% of CVX' invested capital is not yet producing. This capital is in large projects that will be started in the next few years (Gorgon, Angola LNG, Papa-Terra, Big Foot, Jack/St Malo, Permian, Chuandongbei, EGTL). When these projects come on stream, they will add considerably to earnings, free cash flow, and the stock price. The Citi analyst has a target price of $139. The consensus mean TP is $130.

    Another approach is to define the intrinsic value of an oil company as the present value of its reserves, plus other assets, minus liabilities. Oil companies generally sell at a discount to this NPV, but when they are bought out, the acquisition price is generally at or close to NPV. Kurt Wolff at mcdep dot com estimates the NPV of CVX at $150 per share.

    CVX is a Strong Buy, IMO and is suited to all investors, including income seekers and the conservative.
    Feb 20, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,659 Comments
2,520 Likes