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charliezap

charliezap
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  • Exxon Mobil Stays Focused On Fundamentals [View article]
    Too bad XOM closed today at $83.86. You are down by an amount that is equal to almost 6 quarters of dividends.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To New Highs [View article]
    Jason, let me repeat the question: Do you really believe that Citi could have avoided the need for a government bailout if they could have taken over the practically belly up Wachovia? (And had not been outbid, $7 to $2, by Wells Fargo?)
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Senior Housing Properties Trust: A Big Opportunity In The Assisted Living Industry With An 8% Yield [View article]
    SNH is the cheapest of the healthcare REITs by several metrics -- current yield = 8.4%, 2015 FFO multiple < 10, and discount to NAV = 28% (by Citigroup's estimate).

    SNH carries the "taint" of being externally managed by RMR, and this is usually given as the reason that it sells at a discount to peers. But the management agreement with RMR was changed in 2013 to bring management incentives more in line with shareholder interests.

    I am long SNH for the 8.4% yield, and I see no reason why SNH should not enjoy FFO growth at least equal to the average of its peers.

    Analysts' estimates of future growth rates are notoriously unreliable, in part because the "consensus" is based on estimates from just a few analysts, but, FWIW, here are the forecast 5-year FFO growth rates for SNH and peers (source: Yahoo):

    SNH 4.75%
    VTR 4.3
    HCP 3.3
    HCN 5.7
    HTA 2.7
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Exxon Mobil The Perfect Dividend Stock? Think Again [View article]
    When GM had over 54% of the US market back when, there was no one, repeat no one, who was saying it had a narrow, shallow moat!

    Morningstar's moat judgments are pretty subjective anyway.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Exxon Mobil The Perfect Dividend Stock? Think Again [View article]
    """I can't even dignify this with a response . . """

    KD, I live half the year in an area surrounded by ocean and bay waters, and have been coming here for the past 50 years. I say that if you can't respond to melting icecaps and glaciers, and rising waters -- definite evidence of global warming, then you are in a state of denial. You, a financial analyst at Big Oil, say its not caused by human activities, and you are joined in your opinion by Fox News, Fox Business, the WSJ, and the New York Post, all enterprises owned and controlled by Rupert Murdoch. But 98% of scientists, and a good many other usually well-informed observers, including the pope, say that global warming is caused by human activities. To whom should I give my credibility in this case? Rupert Murdoch? Or the scientists?

    I'll go with the fact seekers, the scientists, of course!

    PS: I worked for Big Oil most of my working career, in the financial part of the business.

    PPS: This is from the ExxonMobil website:
    http://bit.ly/1p8VPf8
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Recommending A Riskier REIT [View article]
    Over the past 7 years, shares outstanding have increased from 3.2 million to 22.6 million. Over the same period, the dividend has remained constant at $0.095 per share. I would say the prospects for a dividend cut in the foreseeable future are practically nil.

    The new funds will be used, along with borrowings, to improve existing properties and acquire new ones. The result: more total FFO and enough to cover the increase in funds needed for dividends as a result of the increased shares.

    One would also hope that any new investment would increase FFO on a per share basis.
    Jun 25, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Healthcare REIT Creates Value From The Ground Up [View article]
    Bruce,

    What is the relevance of Book/Share? Since Book Value is based on the depreciated accounting of the assets, it almost invariably understates the underlying market value of the stock.
    Jun 25, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Recommending A Riskier REIT [View article]
    Mike, it looks like you are right. Since the second ever monthly dividend in 2010, the dividend has been a constant $0.095. On a calendar year basis, however, there has been some slippage -- since the end of 2013, there has been no December dividend (by ex div date), but it was made up by 2 payments dated in January. Confirmed by Yahoo.

    http://yhoo.it/1NeaYsw
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Exxon Mobil The Perfect Dividend Stock? Think Again [View article]
    Comments on this article are getting nuttier than ever. Its time to sign out.
    Jun 24, 2015. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Exxon Mobil The Perfect Dividend Stock? Think Again [View article]
    As we go forward, capital expenditures become more and more discretionary. To increase FCF, all Exxon has to do is reduce capital expenditure.
    Jun 24, 2015. 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon And Chevron From A Free-Cash-Flow And Dividend Perspective [View article]
    I agree that electric and hybrids will grow as a share of the transportation market, but right now the share is still very small. Plus, I can hardly see that $90,000 Tesla's will make inroads in the market in India and other emerging markets. Aside from the prohibitive price, electrics require infrastructure, which is sorely lacking in India.
    Jun 24, 2015. 02:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Exxon Mobil The Perfect Dividend Stock? Think Again [View article]
    """Current ratio is just lower than 1 with a net current asset deficit of -$5B."""

    So what! The fact is that we are in the 21st century and have come a long way since Graham and Dodd. XOM is one of just 3 US companies whose bonds are rated AAA by S&P. (Mobil, before being acquired by Exxon, was another.) Any bank would rush to open up credit lines with XOM.

    The concern about FCF is overblown when it comes to the large integrated companies. The trailing 12 months' cash from operations was $38 billion, and future capital expenditures are largely discretionary.

    My only quibble about XOM is that it traditionally sells at a premium to its peers, CVX, BP, RDS, and TOT, that is, in terms of PE, current yield, and discount to NAV. While there are different risks involved, my choice would be one of the others, as better values.
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Stock Overview: Realty Income Corporation [View article]
    WSD,

    FFO is much more readily available, and must be appended, using the NAREIT definition, when quarterly results are published. Analyst consensus estimates for FFO are available on websites such as Yahoo.

    Going to AFFO is a worthwhile refinement as an input to valuation, but the adjustments made to determine AFFO vary from company to company and analyst to analyst.

    By all means use AFFO for your valuations, if you can get the needed estimates. Some analyst reports that I have seen use both to come up with a valuation/target price. Others just use FFO and adjusti the multiple depending on the company and the sector.
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon And Chevron From A Free-Cash-Flow And Dividend Perspective [View article]
    """I dont see how cars use more gasoline . . """

    Demand for liquid fuels for transportation in the developed countries of Europe, the USA and Japan has flattened out since 2008, but there is still a lot of growth in China, India, and other emerging markets of Asia, South America, and Africa.

    Here is Exxon's forecast to 2040:

    http://tinyurl.com/okd...
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In A Sleep Well At Night REIT Like Warren Buffett [View article]
    """Graham's framework is designed to be sector independent . . "

    . . but of what relevance are current ratios ( > 2 ) and current assets to REITs in particular, and to corporations in general, when they can get all the liquidity they need through a bank credit line? Even ExxonMobil, one of just 3 US corporations whose bonds are AAA rated by S&P, has a current ratio of just 0.91. The unmodified Graham approach is outmoded, IMO.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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