D. McHattie

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

Good article. It's a shame that some of the other readers here refuse to see the inescapable truth: residential real estate is still significantly overpriced, even after such significant declines.

3.5% FHA mortgages and the first-time homebuyer tax rebate have dramatically improved the ability of low income, young, inexperienced and naive people to purchase a house or condo.

The government should be ashamed of inducing these people to make the worst decision of their lives.

Stabilization of U.S. Housing Prices

It is the nature of averages that we should expect the ratio to either:
1) drop quickly and briefly to a level below the long-term average that is equivalent to the level it reached above the average
or
2) drop to a level that is moderately below the long-term average and remain there for a long time

Either way, there is no rush whatsoever to buy a home.

It seems to me that a person could benefit by waiting and building a larger down-payment. They could ultimately take out a smaller mortgage, over a shorter amortization period, and pay less interest to the bank.

NARcasting the Future of U.S. Housing Prices: July 2009

And how would the NAR know that appraisers estimates are too low?

Your lengthy list of dated quotations shows quite clearly that the NAR's appraisals have been consistently too high.

Perhaps we need regulation to compel the NAR to make more accurate assessments of overall home prices and their direction?