MarkMedayski's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/240926/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/91210-predicting-the-bottom-in-gold?source=feed#comment-231590 231590 Probably it will be much lower than today,but it will keep moving up from now on and support might be near,I see the gold will reach it's high by December as speculators will stay away from stocks and buy everything gold,only what this high will be I can not now but it might be anything between 700-1000 as I don't expect demand to be at more than 1000.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:29:36 -0400 Probably it will be much lower than today,but it will keep moving up from now on and support might be near,I see the gold will reach it's high by December as speculators will stay away from stocks and buy everything gold,only what this high will be I can not now but it might be anything between 700-1000 as I don't expect demand to be at more than 1000.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91204-market-predictions-crazy-about-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-231588 231588 All your debt is being recycled from Treasuries held by Foreign Central Banks into pesos,reais,rubles and gold and other hard assets.
For your stinky $ to go up the Fed must rise rates to 10% and even then it will be too late as you are all,as a country just went bankrupt.
Look for ECB (European Central Bank) to begin rise rates as we,Europeans,know what your economy is worth.
EUR will rebound soon to 1.70 and USD will stay at this or lower levels before you will not open your cards as you are bunkrupt.
Bankrupt currencies are not worth much.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:21:15 -0400 All your debt is being recycled from Treasuries held by Foreign Central Banks into pesos,reais,rubles and gold and other hard assets.
For your stinky $ to go up the Fed must rise rates to 10% and even then it will be too late as you are all,as a country just went bankrupt.
Look for ECB (European Central Bank) to begin rise rates as we,Europeans,know what your economy is worth.
EUR will rebound soon to 1.70 and USD will stay at this or lower levels before you will not open your cards as you are bunkrupt.
Bankrupt currencies are not worth much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90888-dollar-rally-won-t-last-forever-don-t-give-up-on-gold?source=feed#comment-231262 231262 I don't care about your graphs or your knowledge of the world,in early 1980's when gold crashed for 20 years guys like you went broke.
Probably you are the new generations of such losers as those that bought gold then are not alive anymore.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:14:48 -0400 I don't care about your graphs or your knowledge of the world,in early 1980's when gold crashed for 20 years guys like you went broke.
Probably you are the new generations of such losers as those that bought gold then are not alive anymore.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91136-bear-market-gold?source=feed#comment-231255 231255 I love gold goes down (even I am bull on it) as at my Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt are some cash deposits that I am eager to change to gold bars that Commerzbank is trading.
Let the gold crash,let me get my bars cheap.

www.commerzbank.de/de/...]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:05:45 -0400 I love gold goes down (even I am bull on it) as at my Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt are some cash deposits that I am eager to change to gold bars that Commerzbank is trading.
Let the gold crash,let me get my bars cheap.

www.commerzbank.de/de/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91161-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-231244 231244 Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:00:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91084-mechel-things-are-looking-up?source=feed#comment-231241 231241 Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:57:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91167-when-markets-break?source=feed#comment-231218 231218 Please don't forget :
DOW JONES 30 that everybody loves so much and all business networks speak every day how cheap it is,WILL CRASH VERY SOON and John Q. Public will left with bankruptcy and without work and your polititians don't care about it as crash is made to enrich a few of the elite,but not you.
Keep away from stocks,don't buy Dow Jones,SP500,Nasdaq it's all junk.
December 09
Dow Jones below 9000 at most super bullish case otherwise at 7000-8000 points.TAKE YOUR MONEY AND RUN LIKE CRAZY!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:42:03 -0400 Please don't forget :
DOW JONES 30 that everybody loves so much and all business networks speak every day how cheap it is,WILL CRASH VERY SOON and John Q. Public will left with bankruptcy and without work and your polititians don't care about it as crash is made to enrich a few of the elite,but not you.
Keep away from stocks,don't buy Dow Jones,SP500,Nasdaq it's all junk.
December 09
Dow Jones below 9000 at most super bullish case otherwise at 7000-8000 points.TAKE YOUR MONEY AND RUN LIKE CRAZY!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91096-pension-funds-double-down-as-losses-mount?source=feed#comment-230932 230932 The markets are made to gamble and hedge funds are the native animals of this,let all american investors money go to hedge funds,at least losses/profits will be real not cover ups we have in the Dow Jones,SP500,Nasdaq stocks that are meant to enrich insiders.
Let the hedge funds manipulate the market,not insiders and their long cronies list,at least hedge funds share profits with you.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:07:28 -0400 The markets are made to gamble and hedge funds are the native animals of this,let all american investors money go to hedge funds,at least losses/profits will be real not cover ups we have in the Dow Jones,SP500,Nasdaq stocks that are meant to enrich insiders.
Let the hedge funds manipulate the market,not insiders and their long cronies list,at least hedge funds share profits with you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91132-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-230928 230928 Shabbath Shalom!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:03:05 -0400 Shabbath Shalom!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91026-semafo-junior-gold-miner-shines?source=feed#comment-230884 230884 SEMAFO INC. is non existing company where iniders sold most their holdings at 2$ a share,if you buy it,you be the one to hold this empty bag.
Stay away!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 06:45:14 -0400 SEMAFO INC. is non existing company where iniders sold most their holdings at 2$ a share,if you buy it,you be the one to hold this empty bag.
Stay away!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90974-natural-gas-prices-set-to-surge-canaccord?source=feed#comment-230654 230654 Price of NG (don't have position today) will rise,I think the fall was because bankruptcy of Sem Group LP,big Nat Gas trader who had to liquidate positions to repay bank secured debt,when it's trading book was on the margin call.Same happened to Amaranth Advisors hedge fund 3 years ago,when they bought short term expiration futures and sold long term,those long term was when hurricanes Katrina striked,bad luck.Then they went long again after losing on the shorts in expectation of higher prices but it seems there is bigger players than 3$ billion hedge fund,and those players together with Nat Gas producers sold to Amaranth so they had to liquidate again and lost all 3$ billions.
Also Oil (supply/demand driven only) helped now to crash Nat Gas prices and the even more with Sem Group LP liquidation.
Now good news for long NG trader,Barclays Advisorsof UK bought trading book from Sem Group LP for pennies and I believe there is too many longs to let it sit at this prices.
I am positioning to jump on the first buy signal to buy NG,when it will happen?
I expect it will happen on a day when NG price will go up nicely even if CL (Crude Oil) will be little changed or even trading down.It is when then they will start to taking shorts out as it is too much billions puted on the table to make it lose,you can not believe me but don't try to play against Barclays trading desks.
But be careful,there are too many pikers on the long in NG so maybe we can see 1$ move down before rally.Be prepared.]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:42:10 -0400 Price of NG (don't have position today) will rise,I think the fall was because bankruptcy of Sem Group LP,big Nat Gas trader who had to liquidate positions to repay bank secured debt,when it's trading book was on the margin call.Same happened to Amaranth Advisors hedge fund 3 years ago,when they bought short term expiration futures and sold long term,those long term was when hurricanes Katrina striked,bad luck.Then they went long again after losing on the shorts in expectation of higher prices but it seems there is bigger players than 3$ billion hedge fund,and those players together with Nat Gas producers sold to Amaranth so they had to liquidate again and lost all 3$ billions.
Also Oil (supply/demand driven only) helped now to crash Nat Gas prices and the even more with Sem Group LP liquidation.
Now good news for long NG trader,Barclays Advisorsof UK bought trading book from Sem Group LP for pennies and I believe there is too many longs to let it sit at this prices.
I am positioning to jump on the first buy signal to buy NG,when it will happen?
I expect it will happen on a day when NG price will go up nicely even if CL (Crude Oil) will be little changed or even trading down.It is when then they will start to taking shorts out as it is too much billions puted on the table to make it lose,you can not believe me but don't try to play against Barclays trading desks.
But be careful,there are too many pikers on the long in NG so maybe we can see 1$ move down before rally.Be prepared.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90996-changes-in-p-e-ratios-during-the-current-bear-market?source=feed#comment-230558 230558 When stock price falls/rises so is P/E.
If company earns 2$ per share per year at the average price of 50$ per share then P/E equals 25.
If the same company earned 2$ per share and price of the stock fell down 50% so P/E will be halved too to 12.5 but the valuation didn't got any cheaper as investors don't believe the same company will deliver in the future.And the future nobody knows,what is cheap,what is expensive?Who can tell that?
The only true is that when stock price fall,investors lose and nobody cares about the P/E ratio when your bank statement shows your money been wiped out.
Don't buy into this article,your brokerage statement is the best proof of what you are worth today.
Dump this bloody market,take your money and run before it kills you.
I promise till this December the Dow Jones will be below 9000 at most best possible scenario and P/E of your stock will get even cheaper,so you must chose to take the loss and get burned or buy more to average at lower prices.But this new money will be taken from you too,as bear knows no fear,he will eat as long as you will feed him and there will be many more victims who will show you how nice is P/E of your loser looks when you will lose 50-80% on your best in the world blueest of blue chips.
Dump the grizzly bear before it sucks your blood and soul.]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:53:12 -0400 When stock price falls/rises so is P/E.
If company earns 2$ per share per year at the average price of 50$ per share then P/E equals 25.
If the same company earned 2$ per share and price of the stock fell down 50% so P/E will be halved too to 12.5 but the valuation didn't got any cheaper as investors don't believe the same company will deliver in the future.And the future nobody knows,what is cheap,what is expensive?Who can tell that?
The only true is that when stock price fall,investors lose and nobody cares about the P/E ratio when your bank statement shows your money been wiped out.
Don't buy into this article,your brokerage statement is the best proof of what you are worth today.
Dump this bloody market,take your money and run before it kills you.
I promise till this December the Dow Jones will be below 9000 at most best possible scenario and P/E of your stock will get even cheaper,so you must chose to take the loss and get burned or buy more to average at lower prices.But this new money will be taken from you too,as bear knows no fear,he will eat as long as you will feed him and there will be many more victims who will show you how nice is P/E of your loser looks when you will lose 50-80% on your best in the world blueest of blue chips.
Dump the grizzly bear before it sucks your blood and soul.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90702-four-ways-to-keep-cool-in-a-nervous-market?source=feed#comment-229361 229361 In declining market everything declines and in rising market even junk flies.Dow Jones around 9000 till December at best optimistic estimate,then next year 6000-7000 not sure how your indexing will perform then.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:17:22 -0400 In declining market everything declines and in rising market even junk flies.Dow Jones around 9000 till December at best optimistic estimate,then next year 6000-7000 not sure how your indexing will perform then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90707-there-s-still-time-to-buy-warrior-energy?source=feed#comment-229209 229209 If one believes Oil/Gas to go up,buy futures on those if you understand how margin is calculated and what risk is acceptable to you,or buy an established mid cap/big cap stock that trades on Nasdaq,NYSE,AMEX and have are history,long term institutional shareholders,proven oil/gas reserves,not some fantastic story the fat guy is selling on SA.
And such stock must have a profit,because if Oil/Gas firm is losing money then it is junk like Warrior (whatever they call it,assholes) or it may be established big firm too that have same stress like very big debt,too much hedging (Sem Group LP latest fiasco) or other liabilities.
Such cases may be a good investment,like Sem Group LP, but it is not suitable for individual investor as big guys can buy whole firm,all bonds,etc.,etc., and investor will be left with nothing.
I warn you again,stay away from Warrior junk fat guy is advising.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:44:21 -0400 If one believes Oil/Gas to go up,buy futures on those if you understand how margin is calculated and what risk is acceptable to you,or buy an established mid cap/big cap stock that trades on Nasdaq,NYSE,AMEX and have are history,long term institutional shareholders,proven oil/gas reserves,not some fantastic story the fat guy is selling on SA.
And such stock must have a profit,because if Oil/Gas firm is losing money then it is junk like Warrior (whatever they call it,assholes) or it may be established big firm too that have same stress like very big debt,too much hedging (Sem Group LP latest fiasco) or other liabilities.
Such cases may be a good investment,like Sem Group LP, but it is not suitable for individual investor as big guys can buy whole firm,all bonds,etc.,etc., and investor will be left with nothing.
I warn you again,stay away from Warrior junk fat guy is advising.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90716-oil-will-only-fall-so-far?source=feed#comment-229190 229190 I am Russian,only living in Frankfurt far away from the waste and industry in FSU.
Mr.Medvedev (or Mr.Putin as you quote) really catched all the Western European and American politicos on the balls and Russian bear will not losen his grip.The power have already shifted to the East,THAT'S IT.
The best thing would be for Americans to learn from Europeans,which is to shut up,sit put and buy Oil/Gas from Russia while it is still available at acceptable prices.And soon to learn to pay more and more but still sit put as nothing can be done about it,the Oil/Gas belongs to Russian federation and there is no legal framework o take it away,Russia is not stupid Iraq,it will never let it happen,never.
The author is right to point out that one day probably very soon Oil/Gas will continue to go back up and it have sense to hold Oil/Gas other resources stocks,but I would advise to buy this stocks directly from the company not through the bank or broker,as FDIC guarantees each American's deposit up to 100,000USD is insured and only if it is CD's,cash or Treasury Bonds.
All else is not guaranteed,even if investor have 50,000USD in Exxon or in Newmont Mining that he bought through his/her bank or broker,in the event broker goes bankrupt or bank,this investors will be left with nothing.As stocks they helded with their bank/broker is on the books of that institution and be written down with everything else if bank's debts exceed it's equity,capital base.
So if one prepares for Dow Jones at 5000 points (it will not take too long,already by December we will see the animal at 9000 at best) or lower,please inquire how to buy your big cap Oil/Gas/Mining stocks directly fro the company as only then you will have the prove that you are direct shareholder,not a holder of shares that are sitting on bank's balance sheet together with CDO's and other atomic junk.
Great article,you must write for the WSJ,FT and Barron's.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:22:16 -0400 I am Russian,only living in Frankfurt far away from the waste and industry in FSU.
Mr.Medvedev (or Mr.Putin as you quote) really catched all the Western European and American politicos on the balls and Russian bear will not losen his grip.The power have already shifted to the East,THAT'S IT.
The best thing would be for Americans to learn from Europeans,which is to shut up,sit put and buy Oil/Gas from Russia while it is still available at acceptable prices.And soon to learn to pay more and more but still sit put as nothing can be done about it,the Oil/Gas belongs to Russian federation and there is no legal framework o take it away,Russia is not stupid Iraq,it will never let it happen,never.
The author is right to point out that one day probably very soon Oil/Gas will continue to go back up and it have sense to hold Oil/Gas other resources stocks,but I would advise to buy this stocks directly from the company not through the bank or broker,as FDIC guarantees each American's deposit up to 100,000USD is insured and only if it is CD's,cash or Treasury Bonds.
All else is not guaranteed,even if investor have 50,000USD in Exxon or in Newmont Mining that he bought through his/her bank or broker,in the event broker goes bankrupt or bank,this investors will be left with nothing.As stocks they helded with their bank/broker is on the books of that institution and be written down with everything else if bank's debts exceed it's equity,capital base.
So if one prepares for Dow Jones at 5000 points (it will not take too long,already by December we will see the animal at 9000 at best) or lower,please inquire how to buy your big cap Oil/Gas/Mining stocks directly fro the company as only then you will have the prove that you are direct shareholder,not a holder of shares that are sitting on bank's balance sheet together with CDO's and other atomic junk.
Great article,you must write for the WSJ,FT and Barron's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90713-bear-comparison-today-s-junior-resource-sector-vs-2001-s-nasdaq?source=feed#comment-229154 229154 Now regarding small cap resources stocks,do they have real profits regarding their market cap,I have checked few and 90% at least are losing money on their expenditures for many years already,so the question is:Why somebody must support other persons ( company's )
losses.The answer will be same in every case: My stock is the best positioned to capitalize on rising price of Gold,Silver,Uranium,Co... etc.,I don't believe the answer will be different.
So was it worth to hold those small caps or microcaps last few years when prices of commodities increased and many of average investors mining stocks are down well below 40-50%.
Results tell for themselves,it was not worth.
Conclusion:
Almost everybody of investors would make much,much better buying gold coins,platinum bars,big cap mining/oil/gs stocks as many of those seen quantiple in their stock prices for the last few years,and if you take 10 years then one can retire being bought into any mid/big cap resources stock.
Advice:
Keep your small caps,as it have no sense to sell the loser now,especially if we are still very far away from the peak in oil/gas/gold/silver/pa... but then don't make a mistake selling it too cheap.As in every bubble before the crash,such small caps will rise many times over their proven/probable reserves.
So in the end all of you will be lucky and it have nothingto do with valuations as valuations are down 50% ans stocks are losing money.
I do the same as small cap investor,only I trade commodities on short term basis so my profit will not be so big but the losses too.
Good luck,let your loser fly!

]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:52:48 -0400 Now regarding small cap resources stocks,do they have real profits regarding their market cap,I have checked few and 90% at least are losing money on their expenditures for many years already,so the question is:Why somebody must support other persons ( company's )
losses.The answer will be same in every case: My stock is the best positioned to capitalize on rising price of Gold,Silver,Uranium,Co... etc.,I don't believe the answer will be different.
So was it worth to hold those small caps or microcaps last few years when prices of commodities increased and many of average investors mining stocks are down well below 40-50%.
Results tell for themselves,it was not worth.
Conclusion:
Almost everybody of investors would make much,much better buying gold coins,platinum bars,big cap mining/oil/gs stocks as many of those seen quantiple in their stock prices for the last few years,and if you take 10 years then one can retire being bought into any mid/big cap resources stock.
Advice:
Keep your small caps,as it have no sense to sell the loser now,especially if we are still very far away from the peak in oil/gas/gold/silver/pa... but then don't make a mistake selling it too cheap.As in every bubble before the crash,such small caps will rise many times over their proven/probable reserves.
So in the end all of you will be lucky and it have nothingto do with valuations as valuations are down 50% ans stocks are losing money.
I do the same as small cap investor,only I trade commodities on short term basis so my profit will not be so big but the losses too.
Good luck,let your loser fly!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90703-u-s-session-wrap-meredith-whitney-does-it-again?source=feed#comment-229147 229147 I am a trader and watch markets every day and have a feeling for it as my account goes up and down in regard to the market movements.
All the commodities bulls become bears suddenly,it proves again nobody have an idea what is happening.
From traders perspective,for short term I can see that Crude Oil have strong support at 113$ as rising price have good volume while declines are made by pikers.I am positioning for rebound in Crude Oil and Nat Gas (I don't trade metals and don't have an opinion on that) as big balls guys are accumulating now and the ood thing is that this kind of biggest Oil/Gas traders don't buy it to make a buck,they must see the market to the future as liquidating big position in energies is not economic,with big selling volume prices will crash.They can sell only when prices go up 5-10% or more as then pikers already get bullish news and buy so big funds are nicely selling some of their positions.
Look what happened when the main traders started to sell Crude Oil from 145$ it took prices more than 30$ down,I think more than is accepted by their valuations.So I think their selling will come at 135$ at least as accumulation happened to build at around 125-115$ level.
Even if Oil may decline more in the future,first the Mafia will make their money from your shorts.
Don't listen to any analyst/expert who writes about things he don't knows about and don't trades.If would not advise a driver how to drive if would not have a driving license.
Good trading day everybody,follow your killer insticts.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:13:06 -0400 I am a trader and watch markets every day and have a feeling for it as my account goes up and down in regard to the market movements.
All the commodities bulls become bears suddenly,it proves again nobody have an idea what is happening.
From traders perspective,for short term I can see that Crude Oil have strong support at 113$ as rising price have good volume while declines are made by pikers.I am positioning for rebound in Crude Oil and Nat Gas (I don't trade metals and don't have an opinion on that) as big balls guys are accumulating now and the ood thing is that this kind of biggest Oil/Gas traders don't buy it to make a buck,they must see the market to the future as liquidating big position in energies is not economic,with big selling volume prices will crash.They can sell only when prices go up 5-10% or more as then pikers already get bullish news and buy so big funds are nicely selling some of their positions.
Look what happened when the main traders started to sell Crude Oil from 145$ it took prices more than 30$ down,I think more than is accepted by their valuations.So I think their selling will come at 135$ at least as accumulation happened to build at around 125-115$ level.
Even if Oil may decline more in the future,first the Mafia will make their money from your shorts.
Don't listen to any analyst/expert who writes about things he don't knows about and don't trades.If would not advise a driver how to drive if would not have a driving license.
Good trading day everybody,follow your killer insticts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90333-is-the-commodities-bull-market-over?source=feed#comment-228451 228451 Before one invest in hard assets,make your research what each commodity means and where it stands in the crowd as all can not go only up.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:30:28 -0400 Before one invest in hard assets,make your research what each commodity means and where it stands in the crowd as all can not go only up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90431-how-unusual-is-a-bear-market-in-oil?source=feed#comment-228449 228449 The Oil is in a baby bull market that only gets first feathers,first small wings,learns his first song.
Somebody who wants to sell today Crude Oil at 113$ per barrel,better go and hung himself,as he is going to lose everything.
In real terms CL is at the same price it was in the 1970's,if one thinks since then there are more oil on the planet earth and nothing has been used since then and dissapeared into the atmosphere forever by burning,must be at least crazy.
The global oil reserves probably declined since then by some little change and even if demand stayed the same (did it?) the 113$ a barrel is more than the undervalued.Think again if you want to make money going short energies,already if you are bear in nature,like me,use your money shorting the Dow Jones with 20% margin required to sleep well at night and I promise you will have a lot of fun.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:23:50 -0400 The Oil is in a baby bull market that only gets first feathers,first small wings,learns his first song.
Somebody who wants to sell today Crude Oil at 113$ per barrel,better go and hung himself,as he is going to lose everything.
In real terms CL is at the same price it was in the 1970's,if one thinks since then there are more oil on the planet earth and nothing has been used since then and dissapeared into the atmosphere forever by burning,must be at least crazy.
The global oil reserves probably declined since then by some little change and even if demand stayed the same (did it?) the 113$ a barrel is more than the undervalued.Think again if you want to make money going short energies,already if you are bear in nature,like me,use your money shorting the Dow Jones with 20% margin required to sleep well at night and I promise you will have a lot of fun.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90350-using-futures-to-hedge-your-house?source=feed#comment-228445 228445 Although the idea is good to hedge your house,but it can be done simpler by selling 2 big SP500 futures contracts,or 10 miniSP contracts.
This way your are in the liquid market,can go in/out whenever you decide and margin requirements are the same.
Your house will go down in price only if economy will weaken,of course it will,so hedge not only your house,hedge your life by going short the SP500 futures.Close them when they will be 40% below and even then I am not sure it will be a good deal.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:11:15 -0400 Although the idea is good to hedge your house,but it can be done simpler by selling 2 big SP500 futures contracts,or 10 miniSP contracts.
This way your are in the liquid market,can go in/out whenever you decide and margin requirements are the same.
Your house will go down in price only if economy will weaken,of course it will,so hedge not only your house,hedge your life by going short the SP500 futures.Close them when they will be 40% below and even then I am not sure it will be a good deal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90471-is-the-buck-really-back?source=feed#comment-228441 228441 How come all USD bears become a bulls in the past week,it shows again that the crowd knows a shit about the cycles,each cycle will stop at some point,very extreme point.Crude Oil is in a bull market correction and now it is sitting for free 113$ per barrel,nobody buys.EUR at 1.4850 nobody buys etc.,etc.,
To make it short I must say,let's wait for craziness in this markets,at something all will say:WOW,Dow Jones at 5000 unbelievable,WOW!,Cude Oil at 233$ per barrell,WOW!,Gold at 1600$ an ounce WOW!,unbelievable.
Let us all get crazy,greedy,weird,sat... about everything,let the pressure of the cycle go it's own way and us carefuly manage risk and ride this waves till it explode so we can then easy surf the next,opposite wave.
Don't believe anybody,trust your killer instict only.Good trading day everybody,let the show begin today.HaHa.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:03:15 -0400 How come all USD bears become a bulls in the past week,it shows again that the crowd knows a shit about the cycles,each cycle will stop at some point,very extreme point.Crude Oil is in a bull market correction and now it is sitting for free 113$ per barrel,nobody buys.EUR at 1.4850 nobody buys etc.,etc.,
To make it short I must say,let's wait for craziness in this markets,at something all will say:WOW,Dow Jones at 5000 unbelievable,WOW!,Cude Oil at 233$ per barrell,WOW!,Gold at 1600$ an ounce WOW!,unbelievable.
Let us all get crazy,greedy,weird,sat... about everything,let the pressure of the cycle go it's own way and us carefuly manage risk and ride this waves till it explode so we can then easy surf the next,opposite wave.
Don't believe anybody,trust your killer instict only.Good trading day everybody,let the show begin today.HaHa.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90382-have-we-reached-the-turning-point?source=feed#comment-228108 228108 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:17:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90284-will-the-bear-market-rear-its-head-this-week?source=feed#comment-227750 227750 Don't trust anybody!!!]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:45:05 -0400 Don't trust anybody!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90284-will-the-bear-market-rear-its-head-this-week?source=feed#comment-227570 227570 Sell the dead cat's bounces,buy Gold,Oil,Nat Gas,Lumber,Silver,Suga... and everything that have value and is used on the planet earth,your stocks are the worthless electronic signs that have no value in real terms,we are near the crash of Titanic and only commodities investors will survive,the public companies owners and insiders will retire rich and spend your money,hile you will be left holding your bankrupt bank's statement and see your holdings i Blue Chips down 70% on average.
SELL THE UGLY MARKET,BEFORE IT KILLS YOU!]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:53:42 -0400 Sell the dead cat's bounces,buy Gold,Oil,Nat Gas,Lumber,Silver,Suga... and everything that have value and is used on the planet earth,your stocks are the worthless electronic signs that have no value in real terms,we are near the crash of Titanic and only commodities investors will survive,the public companies owners and insiders will retire rich and spend your money,hile you will be left holding your bankrupt bank's statement and see your holdings i Blue Chips down 70% on average.
SELL THE UGLY MARKET,BEFORE IT KILLS YOU!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90234-hedge-funds-bigger-is-not-always-better?source=feed#comment-227563 227563 The big funds managers are enriching themselves only and most of their starategies are down,the Tremont Hedge Index is so volatile,it shows let's say some strategy is up/down 2% and many investors don't realize what it means.
It means that from let's say 1000 funds it is tracking,500 funds were down 99% and another 500 funds were up 100%.
That's called window dressing.Then the funds that were wiped out open new funds with different style and name to attract investors again and the winning funds are raising capital showing their super results before they will be bust too.
My advise to institutional investors would be not to invest a penny to any hedge fund if it's 10-20 years record didn't beat SP500 index.If it did,then it is OK to allocate 5% of total assets to such stable fund,all the rest is waste of time and money.]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:38:26 -0400 The big funds managers are enriching themselves only and most of their starategies are down,the Tremont Hedge Index is so volatile,it shows let's say some strategy is up/down 2% and many investors don't realize what it means.
It means that from let's say 1000 funds it is tracking,500 funds were down 99% and another 500 funds were up 100%.
That's called window dressing.Then the funds that were wiped out open new funds with different style and name to attract investors again and the winning funds are raising capital showing their super results before they will be bust too.
My advise to institutional investors would be not to invest a penny to any hedge fund if it's 10-20 years record didn't beat SP500 index.If it did,then it is OK to allocate 5% of total assets to such stable fund,all the rest is waste of time and money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90273-weekly-street-sentiment-energy-on-top-financials-weakest?source=feed#comment-227550 227550 I was in the Commerzbank AG this morning in Frankfurt,Germany.Neve... European bankers looked so grim and destroyed.
My sentiment derived from my brain shows Dow Jones below 10,000 in September and below 9,000 in October.Yes,this year,of course.
Don't trust researchers,the reality is rude and if your average mutual fund holdings didn't scare you yet,the market will show you the hell very soon.Just don't sell,sit put and wait to see how money slowly dissapear somewhere.]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:18:56 -0400 I was in the Commerzbank AG this morning in Frankfurt,Germany.Neve... European bankers looked so grim and destroyed.
My sentiment derived from my brain shows Dow Jones below 10,000 in September and below 9,000 in October.Yes,this year,of course.
Don't trust researchers,the reality is rude and if your average mutual fund holdings didn't scare you yet,the market will show you the hell very soon.Just don't sell,sit put and wait to see how money slowly dissapear somewhere.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90181-commodities-still-well-shy-of-2006-correction?source=feed#comment-227234 227234 Now we are in the increase that started in 2001 that took CRB Index up 300%.
The time frame is the same if one considers we are on the top and are headed for big fall.Maybe.
But I belong to realists camp and can somebody of you count how many barrels of oil,natural gas equivalent,tons of coal,copper, metric meters of lumber,tons of aluminium,gold,platinu... etc., we have consumed since last CRB Index rally ended in 1980.
Do we have more available resources today or all of them become more depleted and where we will get new ones?
The planet earth is not a magic ball and can not give more than it has.In this perspective we are on the fair valuations for all of the CRB Index components.
Looking at Fibonacci ascending numbers I found number 610 (last CRB peak) followed by 987.
I believe we are headed for another decade of increasing CRB at least till 987 and then who knows how many commodities will be available in the quantities we need.]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:01:25 -0400 Now we are in the increase that started in 2001 that took CRB Index up 300%.
The time frame is the same if one considers we are on the top and are headed for big fall.Maybe.
But I belong to realists camp and can somebody of you count how many barrels of oil,natural gas equivalent,tons of coal,copper, metric meters of lumber,tons of aluminium,gold,platinu... etc., we have consumed since last CRB Index rally ended in 1980.
Do we have more available resources today or all of them become more depleted and where we will get new ones?
The planet earth is not a magic ball and can not give more than it has.In this perspective we are on the fair valuations for all of the CRB Index components.
Looking at Fibonacci ascending numbers I found number 610 (last CRB peak) followed by 987.
I believe we are headed for another decade of increasing CRB at least till 987 and then who knows how many commodities will be available in the quantities we need.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90067-don-t-just-do-something-stand-there?source=feed#comment-226895 226895
SELL:FTSE,NIKKEI,DOW,D... enough?


BUY:OIL,LUMBER,GAS,GOL... enough?


Long live the bear market,let's put black Armani suit on our bear baby as he will make us rich!Hurra a new class of milionaires!!!]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 18:47:18 -0400
SELL:FTSE,NIKKEI,DOW,D... enough?


BUY:OIL,LUMBER,GAS,GOL... enough?


Long live the bear market,let's put black Armani suit on our bear baby as he will make us rich!Hurra a new class of milionaires!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90105-three-rolling-correlations-in-the-current-market?source=feed#comment-226891 226891 The Friday's rally in stocks was false,we will witness it next week.
I expect bonds volatility to increase starting next week too,check your correlations again,but include there only days with at least 2-3 percent up/down in the time frame you are using.
Otherwise your research would be excellent.THANKS.]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 18:33:34 -0400 The Friday's rally in stocks was false,we will witness it next week.
I expect bonds volatility to increase starting next week too,check your correlations again,but include there only days with at least 2-3 percent up/down in the time frame you are using.
Otherwise your research would be excellent.THANKS.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90107-a-closer-look-at-the-dollar-rally?source=feed#comment-226887 226887 The real thing is not what happened,but what will happen.
The USA economy is in the great depression with banks falling and companies going bankrupt,peple losing their houses and jobs.
The only thing Americans can do is to export their goods at the discount,same Japanese do with their Toyota and Sony etc.,and even this didn't helped to bring Nikkei225 back for almost 20 years it is 70% below it's high o 45,000 points.
We are in the bear market for USD,US stocks to last at least another 10 years.One day of USD jump made you crazy,it is a dead cat's bounce.Look for EUR to be at 1.60 very soon (till September) and 1.70 thereafter.Dow Jones at below 10,000 till September and in October below 9,000.Oil reached it's bottom for sure,maybe there is more technical selling to come by and we see it few bucks lower,but it will be braken immediately as fundamentals are here and everybody fights for energy future resources (Iraq war before,next move Iran-DISASTER),Natural Gas so cheap,is like buying new Diesel jeans for 1$ forever...
Forget about charts,look into your neighbours bank statement,who will must sell his mutual fund (bonds,stocks everything goes) shares to pay for gasoline.
Technicals are good for day trade and history we know anyway.
medayski@yahoo.com]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 18:20:52 -0400 The real thing is not what happened,but what will happen.
The USA economy is in the great depression with banks falling and companies going bankrupt,peple losing their houses and jobs.
The only thing Americans can do is to export their goods at the discount,same Japanese do with their Toyota and Sony etc.,and even this didn't helped to bring Nikkei225 back for almost 20 years it is 70% below it's high o 45,000 points.
We are in the bear market for USD,US stocks to last at least another 10 years.One day of USD jump made you crazy,it is a dead cat's bounce.Look for EUR to be at 1.60 very soon (till September) and 1.70 thereafter.Dow Jones at below 10,000 till September and in October below 9,000.Oil reached it's bottom for sure,maybe there is more technical selling to come by and we see it few bucks lower,but it will be braken immediately as fundamentals are here and everybody fights for energy future resources (Iraq war before,next move Iran-DISASTER),Natural Gas so cheap,is like buying new Diesel jeans for 1$ forever...
Forget about charts,look into your neighbours bank statement,who will must sell his mutual fund (bonds,stocks everything goes) shares to pay for gasoline.
Technicals are good for day trade and history we know anyway.
medayski@yahoo.com]]>