Seeking Alpha

zorbanite

zorbanite
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View zorbanite's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • BDC Risk Profiles: Part 1 [View article]
    like your risk reward chart. I own a number of bdcs as they perform pretty well in a slow growth environment. ranking and rating is a good methodology but I would weight the factors and somehow try to add a return on assets calculation measured over a three to four years starting with 2009. Overall like your approach.
    May 22 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview For BDCs: Q1 2013, Part 1 [View article]
    you shouldn't rate acas as they are not comparable due to the large amount of equity investments and the fact they don't pay a dividend
    Apr 27 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Some Oil Refiner Profits [View article]
    chris,
    if you look at the earnings release for q3 they had a reserve for $10M taken that quarter. don't know what they had prior. but in their guidance for q4 they had another 10M and would expect the same in q1. assuming they have another 10M in q2 that would be 40M.

    operating expenses run about 360k a day. so 25 days worth would be $9M. so they have $31M for the actual maintenance. should have it all covered.

    obviously the big problem is about 2m barrels of lost crack spreads at about $33 or $66M with a 70 cent impact on the distribution. I would expect though still will pay $1.15 or so depending on where the crack spread and differential stand.
    Jan 30 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Some Oil Refiner Profits [View article]
    robert,

    I believe that TGP partners put in an s-1 a while back and will make some planned sales to free up capital for new ventures. Trying to compare HFC to NTI is difficult as NTI is a one refinery stock whereas HFC spreads the risk over multiple locations and therefore gets a premium.

    I spread the risk by owning 4 refiners including aldw, clmt, and cvrr besides NTI.

    I essentially hedge off some of the risk by owning oil trusts.

    My portfolio will soon end up 20% refiners, 20% oil trusts, 10% deepsea drill ships, 20% BDCs, 20% preferred stocks, 10% other dividend plays. about a 10% dividend yield.

    I saw an opportunity with oil trusts and refiners a while back and expect to be very well rewarded when dividends and earnings are announced. bought most of my NTI between 16 and 18.
    Jan 30 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Some Oil Refiner Profits [View article]
    nti dividend will be close to $2. $1 to $2 is a ridiculously wide range. nti has been consistently reserving for their turnaround so the reserve requirement in q1 and q2 will be consistent with the past.

    I think you need to go back and review the last quarter results and especially the conference call. The approximate 47% hedging in q4 is being reduced to less than 20% in q1 creating a huge windfall. NTI's q1 results will be based on december, january and february crack spreads, and the first two months have been very large.

    The current differential on wcs is the important item and it is $33. with 30% of their volume wcs we have an add to the crack spread of $10. Bakken differential adds about another $1.50. If the current spread and differential hold for q1, the dividend should be around $2.20.

    By the end of the year the differential on wcs is forecasted between $15 and $20 with bakken probably around where it is today of $3. so combined probably $7. I figure wti vs brent at $10 worst case, plus a $9 normal margin and you arrive at $26 spread. This is about an annual divvy of $6.50 including 25 days lost for a turnaround.

    In short, this stock should probably sell for around $33. I continue to hold a sizeable position.
    Jan 30 11:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep A Close Eye On The Northern Tier Energy Dividend [View article]
    you are correct. this quarter's dividend will be between 1.80 and 2.00. And the company is about 47% hedged with a crack spread including differentials of about $40, hedging at 20.75. The company states starting with the q1 quarter, hedging will be reduced to less than 20%. Q1 distribution is based on refinery production for December ($40 spread) and January and February.

    The best part of this is the company sources 30% of its oil based on western Canadian select which is currently selling for a $35 differential to WTI forecasted to drop to $20 by Q4 and based on futures will stay at that level for 2014 due to high transport costs to the east cost.

    At a $27 spread including differentials the dividends should run $6. It is conceivable with brent spread to wti of $15 and a $9 refinery margin plus the wcs differential at $6 that this refinery could turn in a $7 performance for the distributions from May to February.

    I would expect the stock to potentially reach $35 to $40 once the run to summer season starts.
    Jan 13 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stagflation: Coming Soon To A Market Near You [View article]
    Southgents analysis is spot on.

    I would add to the argument that the next 5 years will show tailwinds from energy development and a resurgence of housing starts back to more normalized rates, somewhere around 1 million given lower population growth rates. 800k additional barrels of oil a day per year for 5 years brings $30b additional GDP plus pipeline, railroad infrastructure all produced in the u.s. And reduces the trade deficit.

    We have 3 percentage points of possible employment growth or about 4.2m jobs that can come from energy, healthcare, and construction tailwinds. Spread that over 5 years, coupled with the normal 100k a month growth rate in jobs and you get very close to the job growth rate we have enjoyed for the last 3 years.

    As far as hyperinflation, I would not be concerned about food and energy. U.S. produced oil can stay close to 95 plus moderate inflation for the next 5 years as we reduce dependence on opec. The highest cost oil right now is about $65 a barrel produced in the u.s. supporting WTI prices of $95. Gasoline is currently based on $110 Brent so as WTI eventually becomes the benchmark gas cost can essentially stay flat in the U.S.

    If anything, in the U.S., we will regain an advantage in heavy goods manufacturing from lower transportation costs and energy costs.

    If i had one concern it would be healthcare costs. I personally struggle with this one as I had my life saved by a team of medical professionals keeping me alive long enough to have a heart transplant. I didn't see a lot of waste in the process other than a massive amount of cover your ass paperwork to have in case of litigation. I also saw a lot of end of life costs extending lives a month or two. I certainly can justify a 5% pay raise to these people over all the professional athletes and actors, and CEO's who lose market share and turn in subpar financial performances.

    I never worry about technology related products, as they increase value per $ of cost.

    I see slower growth, probably 3% after this year. I hope that the excesses of the 2003 to 2007 bubble economy are solved, but I am pragmatic enough to know government screw ups and corporate greed haven't been solved.
    Jan 8 09:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stagflation: Coming Soon To A Market Near You [View article]
    If you go back to the last time we had a balanced budget (excluding s.s.s. surplus) it was 2000. Look at revenue and spending as a % of gdp and you will see that revenue is well short of where it needs to be. Then plot year by year spending growth through 2008 which averaged over 7%. Then convince me that the republicans, like the democrats aren't big spenders. Then realize that mccain voted for TARP and the stimulus program. And look at the massive falloff in revenue.

    If that doesn't convince you to become an independent like me then you have a problem.

    Its fixable and painful. It comes from cutting the military, cutting 10% across the board in federal payroll over the next 3 years, reforming health care, possibly halving federal education subsidies, farm subsidies, and continuing to grow oil production for the next five years at 800k barrels a day. And reforming the federal tax code.

    I am in a wait and see mode until the end of February.
    Jan 8 07:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2 Favorite Dividend Stocks For 2013 [View article]
    Agree with your $2.00 for q4 for nti. Hedging will drop in q1 so if spreads hold could be as much as 2.40. Spreads on west canadian sour on the moon and will stay high.
    Dec 18 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: Portfolio Reallocation Candidates [View article]
    Good job. I would sdr to the list under royalty trusts
    Dec 13 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding SandRidge Permian Trust [View article]
    Good analysis thanks
    Dec 11 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
    Microsoft tablets have limited apps and are expected to have a hard time selling one million this quarter. IDC makes a forecast that microsoft tablets will take 10% of the market probably based on shipping 5 one hundred bills with the product. No one assumes apple will ever have a new product line.

    And for all the other fundamental reasons, and especially that the cnbc minute traders are involved, i suspect apple stock will recover just fine.
    Dec 5 05:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Northern Tier A Pipeline To Profits? [View article]
    Fluff article. The refinerery benefits on 30% of its production with western canadian select at a $27 differential, bakken at $4 to $6 on top of the brent crude spread. Refineries ran at 92% of capacity this summer and will contine to enjoy continued high utilization. OPEC has no reason to drop prices with strong demand from China for the next 5 years. Think 20m additional cars a year using 10 barrels a year. Next dividend with be $2 with 2013 having the potential of being $7 plus due to a significant drop in hedging. Current crack spread close to $40 due to favorable canadian select prices.
    Nov 30 08:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - What the Heck Is Going On with Apple? (12/7/09) [View article]
    Apple is the premium tech company in consumer electronics with 3 big winnners. The ipod is dominant, they continue to gain share in computing,
    and they are a major player in the smartphone market and gaining share without lowering prices.

    Apple earnings will soon start showing the impact of booking iphone sales immediately rater than spreading the revenue and cost of sales over 24 month. When that occurs the earnings multiple
    for apple will be below the earnings growth rate.

    You can bet that the new tablet will be a big winner incorporating features that the kindle doesn't have. Apple is not going to introduce a product that isn't better than competition.

    And finally realize as the installed base grows so does all that revenue from music and iphone apps.

    Cramer is correct that Apple is boy.

    All the "technical crap" that Apple is going to $150 is an example of people looking backwards rather than forward.
    Dec 9 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [View article]
    extremely superficial analysis. No discussion of macro environment. no discussion of company earnings. just a bunch of "gee the stock price is dropping so it must be a bear market". For Example, at current fertilizer prices CF earnings will be running about $25 per share. Does this author think less than 6x earnings is a fair price?
    Aug 10 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
15 Comments
33 Likes