Balderdash

Deflation Is the Threat, Not Inflation

You can't separate dollar debasement from the inflation (which is really a rising prices argument). Other nations sell imports to us because it is profitable to do so. As the dollar falls, it becomes less profitable. They can lower their prices to keep up with falling demand and clear inventory, but eventually after adjusting for currency values the profit will vanish. Then, the prices will be sufficiently low in the native currency to spur domestic demand, and other nations will begin to out compete our bids for products and exportable services. Then, despite reduced demand, you'll see rising prices just when we are least able to afford it, i.e. stagflation.

Modern economists seem to have forgotten the 70's.

Is the U.S. Dollar Finished?

*yawn* this call is SOOO 2008

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

we will not nominally touch March lows. March lows priced in a collapse of the American financial system. the government has drawn a line in the sand. they will destroy the currency before they let the too big to fail crowd go down.

they've changed the game. they've turned an imminent implosion into an imminent explosion.


On Aug 29 02:11 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> This is not a surprise -- but I appreciated reading it. We are near
> a top and we will test March lows. Denial is not a fundamental strength.
> And companies with declining earnings are not necessarily a good
> value. I'd rather own a company with a high PE and rising earnings
> than a company with a low PE and declining earnings. In the case
> of this market, we have mostly companies with a high PE and declining
> earnings. That's a very dangerous market condition.

Grand Illusion: The Federal Reserve (Part 3)

We should care because that's 'our' wealth and 'our' productivity, not the government's or the fed's. Bankers should live well because they provide wealth building services by matching savers with borrowers, not because we've blindly given them the power to rob us.


On Mar 10 07:28 PM Pirate Jo wrote:

> "Without the inflation, the average individual would have benefited
> much more from these revolutions."
>
> I have no doubt you are correct. But I think this sheds some light
> on why people have been willing to take these abuses. They have more
> comfortable jobs and better incomes than their parents and grandparents,
> and enjoy a better standard of living to boot. If a few "fatcats"
> at the "top" are even richer, do we care? Why should we?

Grand Illusion: The Federal Reserve (Part 3)

Simple. Productivity and technology increased while the inflation was happening. Without the inflation, the average individual would have benefited much more from these revolutions. Rather, the fatcats printing money threw us a scrap and took the rest.


On Mar 10 06:24 PM Pirate Jo wrote:

> "Using the realistic figures, they make 64% less than they did in
> 1964."
>
> Then how do you account for the increased standard of living? You
> blasted a previous commenter who said prices have gone down, but
> seriously, I am curious about:
>
> - Why I can buy a top-of-the-line bicycle for the same price as I
> paid for mine, five years ago, and get much better features (DuraAce
> shifting instead of Ultegra).
>
> - Why I can buy a widescreen TV for the same price as I paid for
> mine, seven years ago, and get much better features (a flat panel
> that hangs on the wall).
>
> - A desktop computer for the same price as I paid god-only-knows-how-man...
> and get much better features (a better screen, speakers, more memory,
> and even a free printer).
>
> I don't disagree with anything you said in the article, and clearly
> some bubbles exist - the price of homes, which has already burst,
> college eduations, and cars - but the price of food remains low,
> and my utilities cost the same as they did umpteen years ago.
>
> I believe the answer lies with technology - because of technology,
> we are able to buy more with the same amount of money, IN SPITE OF
> the big-government monkey riding our backs. But I'd like to see that
> graph line imposed on top of one of your existing graphs, such as
> the one that shows inflation. Of course that assumes someone knows
> how to measure it.
>
> My mom tells the funny story about how her little brother saved enough
> money by selling nightcrawlers to buy the first television in their
> household. Back then, buying a TV cost a big chunk of the household
> budget. Now you can buy something perfectly serviceable at a garage
> sale. Doesn't this fit in anywhere in your calculations?

Where Was the Inflation?

the inflation manifested itself in a unprecedented housing orgy

that's not measured by CPI

Excluding Five Worst States, November 2008 Foreclosures Down by 1.10%

OK, let's toss them out of the union.

Yer on yer own!

Confessions of an Austrian Economist

Ever heard the old adage 'can't have your cake and eat it too??' I suggest you revisit this truism.

The malinvestments and inane monetary policies of our decades past have created losses that must be flushed through the system. No amount of fiscal stimulus is going to cure the inevitable correction. All the government can do is redistribute the losses amongst those who have done no wrong and create moral hazard.

An inflationary depression is far worse than a deflationary one. Imagine the job losses if people refuse to work for worthless dollars and demand gold, euros, or wheat? A full blown currency crisis is arguably worse than deflation and massive default.

Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar: Twin Bubbles

he said bond puts.


On Nov 12 04:20 AM The hand wrote:

> "Silver, gold, and bond puts all sound good if your time horizon
> is longer than two weeks."
>
> bond not good in inflation cycle - sorry.
>
> also, i would not be sure about inflation in the scenario you are
> painting as money velocity would not be accelerating. in fact, in
> your scenario you are claiming the national debt would not be not
> be able to be serviced and would cause an increase in interest rates.
> with an economy barely turning over as you are predicting, this is
> deflationary and most probably depressionary.
>
> i think inflation or hyperinflation is a real danger. but i doubt
> it will happen if events play out as you predict.
>
>
>

Consumer Confidence and Dollar Plunge; Oil Prices Soar

I think you're confusing contemporaneousness with causation.

The tide may have shifted as the negative dollar sentiment overpowers flows associated with carry unwind.

*gulp*

Weak Dollar Bodes Well for U.S. Economy

<< Since July 2007 the three months with the highest totals of private investment in the United States have been months that the dollar fell, often dramatically, against the euro.>>

then you say

<< June was a bad month for the dollar against the euro; it dropped from 1.5300 in the second week to 1.5780 in the last. It will probably be another strong month for investment capital flows into the US economy.>>

I've never seen someone contradict themselves so badly with so few words written.