Niner

The House signs off on extending jobless benefits and the homebuyers' tax credit, 403-12, sending the measures to President Obama for signature into law.

Will this be in time to show in next weeks unemployment numbers? I'm thinking we won't see anything for 2 weeks maybe even 3.

Oct. ADP Jobs Report: -203K vs. -203K expected and -227K prior (revised from -254K). October marks the seventh month of declining job losses. "Nevertheless, despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least a few more months." According to ADP, 7.2M private-sector jobs have been lost since the recession began.

My info shows 198k expected


On Nov 04 08:20 AM gandalf6900 wrote:

> -188k expected

Chrysler (FIATY.PK) October U.S. Sales: -30% to 65,803 vehicles, vs. estimate of -29%. Dodge brand -22% to 26,265; Jeep -37% to 13,500; Chrysler brand -36% to 12,815; Ram -32% to 13,223. (PR)

I thought Chrysler (and GM) pretty well hammered their Unions into agreements that brought these two American auto companies labor costs in line with the foriegn auto companies.

Irregardless of Labor costs. I vote Chrysler the least likey to succeed of All the bail out receipents.

On Nov 03 02:00 PM Hooligan1 wrote:

> Tell me, why is it that the labor union controlled auto companies
> are having trouble. Foreign manufacturers in the U.S. without labor
> unions are doing okay. Sure, Ford is on the plus side, but it didnot
> take any bailout money.

Toyota (TM) October U.S. sales: -3.5% to 152,165 vehicles. Toyota brand -5.8% to 132,633; Lexus +15.5% to 19,502. Passenger cars down 3.3%, light trucks down 10%. (numbers on daily selling rate basis; PR)

Falout from the carpet crashes and subsequent recall?

Daimler (DAI) October U.S. sales: +9.4% to 18,854 vehicles. Mercedes-Benz +21.3% to 18,193, and Smart -70.4% to 661. (PR)

You Bears bitch about everything. The Bears song last qtr was "you can't count earnings' beats just because they weren't as bad as expected." Now this qtr the song is "they may have made a profit but they still have declining revenues." Now we get the first verse of the new Bear song "of course revenues are up from the crisis ridden qtr of last year, who couldn't beat those figures." It is happening right in front of your eyes and and you Bears just don't want to see it. I'm sorry, but no matter how badlly you Bears want the economy to come crashing down around our heads. It isn't going to happen. It started when Companies didn't lose as much as they thought they would. It continued when Companies beat positive earnings consensus (read made more profit than expected) in the 3rd quarter. It will continue this quarter with revenues increasing over last years admittedly depressed levels. It will increase because, Compaines like Ford, Daimler and Porsche will have sales increases of over lst years admittedly depressed levels. Things will continue to get better, probably at a very slow rate until we get into the next bubble whatever it happens to be. You Bears ought to get your heads out of your rumps and look asround. It ain't pretty yet; but, it is getting better. I not telling you it is going to be as bed of roses either. We are all in for some tough times still. But, the economy is getting better. We will survive!

Down Fridays

just answered my own question. Only 2/29/2008 could have been the last trading day and the next Monday was down .06%... Very inconclusive.........


On Oct 31 05:15 PM Niner wrote:

> Tho Dow ended the day just 6 points below the 50 period MA. That's
> close enough for me to say it is sitting on support. Nasdaq and
> SP 500 both crashed through their 50 period MAs. Both however ended
> the day in areas of support. Based on all this information I'm going
> to amend the statement of the guy on PBS to. Some stocks will go
> up and some will go down.
>
> I'm wondering how many of those Fridays were the last trading day
> of the month. If I were a betting man, I'd bet the Mutual Funds
> were dumping. But, in no way was this the only reason for the drop.

Down Fridays

Tho Dow ended the day just 6 points below the 50 period MA. That's close enough for me to say it is sitting on support. Nasdaq and SP 500 both crashed through their 50 period MAs. Both however ended the day in areas of support. Based on all this information I'm going to amend the statement of the guy on PBS to. Some stocks will go up and some will go down.

I'm wondering how many of those Fridays were the last trading day of the month. If I were a betting man, I'd bet the Mutual Funds were dumping. But, in no way was this the only reason for the drop.

Weyerhaeuser (WY): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $1.41B (-33.2%) in-line. (PR)

ooops...here's a not as bad as expected.

Arch Coal (ACI): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $615M (-20.1%) vs. $605M. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)

a lot bigger profit than expected...

CMS Energy (CMS): Q3 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.02. (PR)

a profit, just not as big as expected..............

Mike Shedlock has a hard time seeing why markets went giddy over today's Q3 GDP data: "The government sloshed trillions around and yet disposable income is down, jobs are horrendously weak, and the only reason GDP rose is wasteful government spending, cash-for-clunkers and extremely unaffordable housing tax credits whose effect is soon going to start diminishing."

There are people that love wallowing in gloom and dispair. They just can't stand the thought that this recession will end and they'll have to find something else to whine about. Look at the earnings beats. The majority have been not just "less worse than expected" but the companies actually made more money than consensus some have had increases in revenue too. I quit counting at 35 beats on positive earnings this morning before the market opened. Companies are going to start spending the money they are making. New hires, new equipment, mergers and acquisitions the recovery is on the way. The only thing I can figure is the naysayers are short. Plus if one could take a head count, the number of Bears would far out number the Bulls on this site!

Daily Earnings Trends

I like their style. For the most part it's just facts no crap. But I would like to see some figures on :

A. The percentage beating positive earning consensus.
B. The percentage that were not as bad as expected.
C. The percentage that had positive revenue growth.
D. The percentage that had negative revenue growth.

A look at the "beat" to "miss" ratio, and how it's been declining through this earnings season.

I like their style. For the most part it's just facts no crap. But I would like to see some figures on :

A. The percentage beating positive earning consensus.
B. The percentage that were not as bad as expected.
C. The percentage that had positive revenue growth.
D. The percentage that had negative revenue growth.

Zero Hedge looks at the volume and thinks, another bear trap.

Nah, it's Bear bait. We'll get these stock prices up and the naked shorters 'ill jump all over 'em like smoke off doggie do in the winter time. Then the Dow will bust through 13000 and burn their butts. It's just as good a story as anybody has told so far.

A growing rift at Ford (F -2%) as a Michigan Mustang plant becomes the fifth factory to reject contract concessions that United Auto Workers previously granted to GM and Chrysler. "The membership did not have a warm reception to additional contract modifications," said the UAW local president. "We did this in ‘05, ‘07 and in February and now they’re back at us again."

I'm not a retired auto worker. I won't willing vote to cut my retirement income and my medical etc. And probably everyone reading this would raise five kinds of H if they were asked to take the same cut in their pay and benefits as the UAW. Nobody willingly votes to take less money and that includes you. It will be a tough call. This may be the achilles tendon of Ford not taking Bankruptcy. However, a job with less pay and benefits may be better than no job at all. Look for a bunch to retire to lock in their current benefits.