Roowns

Green Shoots: Starting to Wither...Soon to Die

Well. One word : China. You want a second one ? India. Third ? I think you got the idea.
America, Japan, Europe will have work for another 500 years to get those regions to their level and deliver products and services.
Unemployment is already starting to slow down and we're up for a recovery in some months. Look at some relevant data, not that chart.

On Jun 23 07:07 AM markfl wrote:

> I see the greatest problem as a lack of a mechanism for job creation,

Why Interest Rates Will Go Up

The risk is higher but the demand for money is much lower.
Since when the governments borrowing plays the primordial role into world economy ?
PRIVATE companies don't need money to expand since demand is lower, so money should be in high supply.
Governments are borrowing the extra money to try and increase the demand.
As demand continue to slowly decrease, borrowing costs should be lower, not higher.
As well, I think the risk is decreasing, as companies start to make cost cuts and increase profitability, adjusting to the demand.

In my opinion you are very wrong on your assumptions.

It's Not Too Soon to Sell in May

I don't support any theory right now because right now I haven't the faintest idea where the market is going but I know ONE thing : S&P 500 wasn't in back 35's. Maybe from 90's. It's just to scary people.

Emerging Markets Performance in 2008 and Beyond

I come from an emerging market. My country's trade is made 70-80% with European Union.
Foreign investment and trade plays a huge role to GDP growth in the region. No money, no honey so to speak.
So if the consume in UE drops 2% for example, in my country exports drop 4-6%. That's why the risk and correlation is such high.

There's no secret. Cheers.

Cheap Credit Means Crummy Companies - Fed Researcher

The reason is the market is very weak, competitions is at all high time so new firms have trouble to enter market even the credit is cheap.
If it was so easy, the existing firms would put the cheap credit to work in no time.
What to do with cheap money when then nobody wants to buy products ? Spend it with marketing ? No way.

The Top 10 ETF Model Portfolio

Well. If you had like 10 mil. dollars and all you want is to keep your wealth and have low exposure to risk I guess you could easily use a mix of those.
But since it's not really anyone case in here, I'll have to pass. Thank you.

Now can you tell me how to reach 10 mil. dollars so I can use this article ?

Rare Market Indicator Sighting: T2108 Over 90%

I wouldn't trust a statistic from 1986 to present. How many recessions like this we had since then ? I tell you : NONE.
Prices are low, we all know, and swings can drive volatility to extreme easily.
I am sure in Great Depression this indicator turned over 90 many times. A research like this could be more usefull.
Good analysis but you didn't finished your homework young boy :)

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

With the market being 50% down from peak, I think it's safe to say the 40 in volatility it's the new 20 as you were implying.
The volatility indicator should be somehow weighted with market level for a better view.

Let's face it. After the disaster of news that we were targeted in recent months, the few good economic indicators from last weeks made some difference in the market.
We all know this is not enough for a bottom and those who hurry to enter now are more risk takers.
From my point of view, this it was the way to go, I am not shocked. But I think it's a small chance that the streak of good news will continue.

Keep the good work David.

This Rally May Have Legs - Bespoke

I disagree.
Recently Bespoke published that "Since the end of February, short sales on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 10.7%" on the rally.
This sign tells me people are not scared by the rally and use it to increase their bets on the market fall.
The market reaction to Fed plan was totally wrong since all those money are pumped into banks for what ? To make sure this sector that contribute with nothing to economy doesn't fail and what banks are doing with the money ? Paying CEOs or keep liquidity for the rainy days.
The few improvements that we've seen into the economic indicators surely are just a small step before we make a picture if it's the bottom or not.
And after market rallied so much it makes it even more risky to enter now.

S&P 500 Trends, 1980 - 2009

The only problem with this lines is the current market conditions are worst then we've seen in last 30 years, so the "long term" bottom of 735-980 might not be "the bottom".
Good analyze anyway. It shows we might still have to drop from here.

Is Saving the Root of All Evil?

The rate of debt and savings it's what worries me the most in this whole mess.
If the real-estate market could stabilize in near term because it's indicators reached some preview lows, that's not what I could say about rate of savings that just started to grow recently and it's not even close to historical averages...
I've looked recently at some indicators of debt and savings and from the evolution could take years to get there...
The rate of debt it's just falling of a cliff and it reminds me of stock plunge.
If it's not going to stabilize, consumer spending won't return to grow either and in this case there's no way GDP will have a steady grow.

End of the Recession in 2009?

The indicator it's in fact a little bit lagging but , and I say but, it's a view and it's supported by other indicator I have that hit a low, like in the preview recession.
The problem is this one says the market could remain low over one up to 3 years, meaning stay at the bottom for some long time.
Could happen.

Money Coming Off the Treasury Table

It's just a sign of inflation coming into play. I'd be careful on the magnitude of that. High inflation is the last thing we need now. Let's hope Fed made his math correctly.

Don’t Panic: Real-time Data Points to Stabilization

I followed you. You are bullish for sometime now (maybe months) but market just performed miserable this year as well. It's true that is stabilizing somehow, but the bottom is tested many times and at some point might break.
I think all investors passed the phase where they panic, so "don't panic" it's a bit too late :)
I still wait for big failures and some more contraction in spending before any bottom.

The Scariest Chart Ever

I don't think those few billions of dollars diverse even a discussion. You should care more about the trillions....
When it rose from 0 looks a lot, but the truth is it's not.