Roowns's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/241428/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/144745-green-shoots-starting-to-wither-soon-to-die?source=feed#comment-560996 560996 America, Japan, Europe will have work for another 500 years to get those regions to their level and deliver products and services.
Unemployment is already starting to slow down and we're up for a recovery in some months. Look at some relevant data, not that chart.

On Jun 23 07:07 AM markfl wrote:

> I see the greatest problem as a lack of a mechanism for job creation,]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:05:32 -0400 America, Japan, Europe will have work for another 500 years to get those regions to their level and deliver products and services.
Unemployment is already starting to slow down and we're up for a recovery in some months. Look at some relevant data, not that chart.

On Jun 23 07:07 AM markfl wrote:

> I see the greatest problem as a lack of a mechanism for job creation,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139450-why-interest-rates-will-go-up?source=feed#comment-516712 516712 Since when the governments borrowing plays the primordial role into world economy ?
PRIVATE companies don't need money to expand since demand is lower, so money should be in high supply.
Governments are borrowing the extra money to try and increase the demand.
As demand continue to slowly decrease, borrowing costs should be lower, not higher.
As well, I think the risk is decreasing, as companies start to make cost cuts and increase profitability, adjusting to the demand.

In my opinion you are very wrong on your assumptions.]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 10:44:15 -0400 Since when the governments borrowing plays the primordial role into world economy ?
PRIVATE companies don't need money to expand since demand is lower, so money should be in high supply.
Governments are borrowing the extra money to try and increase the demand.
As demand continue to slowly decrease, borrowing costs should be lower, not higher.
As well, I think the risk is decreasing, as companies start to make cost cuts and increase profitability, adjusting to the demand.

In my opinion you are very wrong on your assumptions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138241-it-s-not-too-soon-to-sell-in-may?source=feed#comment-508573 508573 Mon, 18 May 2009 14:30:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136944-emerging-markets-performance-in-2008-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-502617 502617 Foreign investment and trade plays a huge role to GDP growth in the region. No money, no honey so to speak.
So if the consume in UE drops 2% for example, in my country exports drop 4-6%. That's why the risk and correlation is such high.

There's no secret. Cheers.]]> Wed, 13 May 2009 16:23:44 -0400 Foreign investment and trade plays a huge role to GDP growth in the region. No money, no honey so to speak.
So if the consume in UE drops 2% for example, in my country exports drop 4-6%. That's why the risk and correlation is such high.

There's no secret. Cheers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130912-cheap-credit-means-crummy-companies-fed-researcher?source=feed#comment-463764 463764 If it was so easy, the existing firms would put the cheap credit to work in no time.
What to do with cheap money when then nobody wants to buy products ? Spend it with marketing ? No way.]]> Wed, 15 Apr 2009 06:50:39 -0400 If it was so easy, the existing firms would put the cheap credit to work in no time.
What to do with cheap money when then nobody wants to buy products ? Spend it with marketing ? No way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130383-the-top-10-etf-model-portfolio?source=feed#comment-460857 460857 But since it's not really anyone case in here, I'll have to pass. Thank you.

Now can you tell me how to reach 10 mil. dollars so I can use this article ?]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 17:42:17 -0400 But since it's not really anyone case in here, I'll have to pass. Thank you.

Now can you tell me how to reach 10 mil. dollars so I can use this article ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130455-rare-market-indicator-sighting-t2108-over-90?source=feed#comment-460833 460833 Prices are low, we all know, and swings can drive volatility to extreme easily.
I am sure in Great Depression this indicator turned over 90 many times. A research like this could be more usefull.
Good analysis but you didn't finished your homework young boy :)]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 17:19:12 -0400 Prices are low, we all know, and swings can drive volatility to extreme easily.
I am sure in Great Depression this indicator turned over 90 many times. A research like this could be more usefull.
Good analysis but you didn't finished your homework young boy :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129295-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-451858 451858 The volatility indicator should be somehow weighted with market level for a better view.

Let's face it. After the disaster of news that we were targeted in recent months, the few good economic indicators from last weeks made some difference in the market.
We all know this is not enough for a bottom and those who hurry to enter now are more risk takers.
From my point of view, this it was the way to go, I am not shocked. But I think it's a small chance that the streak of good news will continue.

Keep the good work David.]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 15:46:47 -0400 The volatility indicator should be somehow weighted with market level for a better view.

Let's face it. After the disaster of news that we were targeted in recent months, the few good economic indicators from last weeks made some difference in the market.
We all know this is not enough for a bottom and those who hurry to enter now are more risk takers.
From my point of view, this it was the way to go, I am not shocked. But I think it's a small chance that the streak of good news will continue.

Keep the good work David.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128374-this-rally-may-have-legs-bespoke?source=feed#comment-443996 443996 Recently Bespoke published that "Since the end of February, short sales on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 10.7%" on the rally.
This sign tells me people are not scared by the rally and use it to increase their bets on the market fall.
The market reaction to Fed plan was totally wrong since all those money are pumped into banks for what ? To make sure this sector that contribute with nothing to economy doesn't fail and what banks are doing with the money ? Paying CEOs or keep liquidity for the rainy days.
The few improvements that we've seen into the economic indicators surely are just a small step before we make a picture if it's the bottom or not.
And after market rallied so much it makes it even more risky to enter now.]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 11:10:29 -0400 Recently Bespoke published that "Since the end of February, short sales on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 10.7%" on the rally.
This sign tells me people are not scared by the rally and use it to increase their bets on the market fall.
The market reaction to Fed plan was totally wrong since all those money are pumped into banks for what ? To make sure this sector that contribute with nothing to economy doesn't fail and what banks are doing with the money ? Paying CEOs or keep liquidity for the rainy days.
The few improvements that we've seen into the economic indicators surely are just a small step before we make a picture if it's the bottom or not.
And after market rallied so much it makes it even more risky to enter now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125953-s-p-500-trends-1980-2009?source=feed#comment-426429 426429 Good analyze anyway. It shows we might still have to drop from here.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 11:22:44 -0400 Good analyze anyway. It shows we might still have to drop from here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123584-is-saving-the-root-of-all-evil?source=feed#comment-409731 409731 If the real-estate market could stabilize in near term because it's indicators reached some preview lows, that's not what I could say about rate of savings that just started to grow recently and it's not even close to historical averages...
I've looked recently at some indicators of debt and savings and from the evolution could take years to get there...
The rate of debt it's just falling of a cliff and it reminds me of stock plunge.
If it's not going to stabilize, consumer spending won't return to grow either and in this case there's no way GDP will have a steady grow.
]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:56:55 -0500 If the real-estate market could stabilize in near term because it's indicators reached some preview lows, that's not what I could say about rate of savings that just started to grow recently and it's not even close to historical averages...
I've looked recently at some indicators of debt and savings and from the evolution could take years to get there...
The rate of debt it's just falling of a cliff and it reminds me of stock plunge.
If it's not going to stabilize, consumer spending won't return to grow either and in this case there's no way GDP will have a steady grow.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118339-end-of-the-recession-in-2009?source=feed#comment-399900 399900 The problem is this one says the market could remain low over one up to 3 years, meaning stay at the bottom for some long time.
Could happen.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 10:30:23 -0500 The problem is this one says the market could remain low over one up to 3 years, meaning stay at the bottom for some long time.
Could happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118365-money-coming-off-the-treasury-table?source=feed#comment-375215 375215 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 06:29:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118251-dont-panic-real-time-data-points-to-stabilization?source=feed#comment-374880 374880 I think all investors passed the phase where they panic, so "don't panic" it's a bit too late :)
I still wait for big failures and some more contraction in spending before any bottom.]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 17:52:30 -0500 I think all investors passed the phase where they panic, so "don't panic" it's a bit too late :)
I still wait for big failures and some more contraction in spending before any bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=feed#comment-361632 361632 When it rose from 0 looks a lot, but the truth is it's not.]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 06:19:50 -0500 When it rose from 0 looks a lot, but the truth is it's not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114963-what-i-would-do?source=feed#comment-356797 356797
I think I have a deja-vu O_o

The problem with all the financial systems was people don't care about it's stability, but how they can profit more out of it, and this mostly harmed it.
Fed and other institutions only wants stability when the only thing we can tell about the future is : things always change.
People will easy speculate about anything, so why try to fix the system and not doing what everybody is doing :)]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 13:47:05 -0500
I think I have a deja-vu O_o

The problem with all the financial systems was people don't care about it's stability, but how they can profit more out of it, and this mostly harmed it.
Fed and other institutions only wants stability when the only thing we can tell about the future is : things always change.
People will easy speculate about anything, so why try to fix the system and not doing what everybody is doing :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114353-the-calm-before-the-next-financial-storm?source=feed#comment-353223 353223 In the last month market was calm because no financial institution failed but this time will be the producer companies that will have liquidity problems and I don't see government giving support to all of them, cuz not many have a systemic risk on the economy.
]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 10:03:19 -0500 In the last month market was calm because no financial institution failed but this time will be the producer companies that will have liquidity problems and I don't see government giving support to all of them, cuz not many have a systemic risk on the economy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110697-don-t-abandon-commodities-just-yet?source=feed#comment-329837 329837 And what's this " Don't abandon commodities". You say you owned commodities in this free fall ? What a disaster....
Commodities have the same chance to rebound as stocks do and will probably occur same time with stocks.
If oil rebound will stabilize close to the bottom as stocks did.
I can't say the same thing about gold.]]> Mon, 15 Dec 2008 10:08:00 -0500 And what's this " Don't abandon commodities". You say you owned commodities in this free fall ? What a disaster....
Commodities have the same chance to rebound as stocks do and will probably occur same time with stocks.
If oil rebound will stabilize close to the bottom as stocks did.
I can't say the same thing about gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110480-the-deflation-risk-keeps-rising?source=feed#comment-328544 328544
www.shadowstats.com/im...

As you can see, there's a real deflationary pressure on M3 and inflationary on M1 right now.
I look at this graphs from time to time to see the money supply flow.
Be my guest to comment it.]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 19:53:36 -0500
www.shadowstats.com/im...

As you can see, there's a real deflationary pressure on M3 and inflationary on M1 right now.
I look at this graphs from time to time to see the money supply flow.
Be my guest to comment it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110496-why-aig-gets-billions-while-gm-gets-scorn?source=feed#comment-327908 327908 Might be smart to let down one of those 3 automakers in case things don't get back on track too soon.
AIG bailout might not be just for their employs, but would affect probably millions of people who had their money savings at their disposal with much more implications.
I don't say it was smart to save AIG, but I don't see a solution in helping all automakers either.]]> Fri, 12 Dec 2008 18:36:31 -0500 Might be smart to let down one of those 3 automakers in case things don't get back on track too soon.
AIG bailout might not be just for their employs, but would affect probably millions of people who had their money savings at their disposal with much more implications.
I don't say it was smart to save AIG, but I don't see a solution in helping all automakers either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109814-is-it-time-to-buy-what-history-shows?source=feed#comment-325484 325484 It's true that we had a rally but after a free fall market. It's sure that news were not good, still market got up, but take in account that 2 month ago news were a disaster, with many institutions failing and plans of billions running.
Yes, now companies make lower predictions and fire people, but this has not such an impact as bailouts in financial sector.]]> Wed, 10 Dec 2008 10:20:17 -0500 It's true that we had a rally but after a free fall market. It's sure that news were not good, still market got up, but take in account that 2 month ago news were a disaster, with many institutions failing and plans of billions running.
Yes, now companies make lower predictions and fire people, but this has not such an impact as bailouts in financial sector.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109938-the-economic-debate-did-we-need-government-intervention?source=feed#comment-325024 325024 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:06:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109938-the-economic-debate-did-we-need-government-intervention?source=feed#comment-325020 325020 Without the Government Intervention I am almost sure the whole banking system would be dead and the companies still alive would make row on Fed door to take credit as well the population putting money on Treasury.
The whole economy is based on trust, and in this scenario no company would trust noone, not even own clients. Would be a total mess.
This is not the question. Is how the Government can do it without affecting too much the free market.
Sure they could have come with better solutions, but when you need to act fast there's no time to lose.]]> Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:00:30 -0500 Without the Government Intervention I am almost sure the whole banking system would be dead and the companies still alive would make row on Fed door to take credit as well the population putting money on Treasury.
The whole economy is based on trust, and in this scenario no company would trust noone, not even own clients. Would be a total mess.
This is not the question. Is how the Government can do it without affecting too much the free market.
Sure they could have come with better solutions, but when you need to act fast there's no time to lose.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109632-10-contrarian-reasons-for-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-325009 325009 The author theory has a good chance to happen and I agree with it, even 1.000 on S&P 500 is kind of high target...
We'll test the low again.

On Dec 08 11:12 AM mr clark wrote:

> the rally is almost over guys, 1 more day or so...]]> Tue, 09 Dec 2008 17:44:39 -0500 The author theory has a good chance to happen and I agree with it, even 1.000 on S&P 500 is kind of high target...
We'll test the low again.

On Dec 08 11:12 AM mr clark wrote:

> the rally is almost over guys, 1 more day or so...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109735-performance-of-the-rally-by-market-cap?source=feed#comment-324107 324107 Do you have any idea how few this count for someone who lost over 50% in last year ?
Before the markets gets back to max we should get used with this type of swings of 20% or more in a week, because stocks are cheap and more easy to manipulate.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 16:05:18 -0500 Do you have any idea how few this count for someone who lost over 50% in last year ?
Before the markets gets back to max we should get used with this type of swings of 20% or more in a week, because stocks are cheap and more easy to manipulate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109410-the-commodity-rebate?source=feed#comment-322342 322342 Companies seen themselves in the situation of very high material and transport costs, not a very good market, so they tried to lower where it could, from salaries.
As a fact unemployment started to rise fast.
I expect better times in the spring-summer of 2009.]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 07:38:24 -0500 Companies seen themselves in the situation of very high material and transport costs, not a very good market, so they tried to lower where it could, from salaries.
As a fact unemployment started to rise fast.
I expect better times in the spring-summer of 2009.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109400-is-it-time-to-buy-gold?source=feed#comment-321945 321945 But people should still watch the market carefully and see when the falling prices will be enough to increase consumer, not necessary in USA, but all over the world.
For about 6 month producers will have a huge material cost included into their fabrication products, because of the heights reached by commodities in the summer, but when this will end prices to final products will start to drop fast and help consumer a lot. Then will see commodities start rising again, especially gold. That's my view.
The way commodities increased and dropped this year was like a fireworks and monetary policy might be too severe for what is to come.]]> Fri, 05 Dec 2008 14:34:38 -0500 But people should still watch the market carefully and see when the falling prices will be enough to increase consumer, not necessary in USA, but all over the world.
For about 6 month producers will have a huge material cost included into their fabrication products, because of the heights reached by commodities in the summer, but when this will end prices to final products will start to drop fast and help consumer a lot. Then will see commodities start rising again, especially gold. That's my view.
The way commodities increased and dropped this year was like a fireworks and monetary policy might be too severe for what is to come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109260-the-current-compulsion-bottom-calling?source=feed#comment-321040 321040 But usually, in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary, people will pin all their hopes on the slimmest of doubts.
I expect some massive swings throw the end of this bear market, as investors tend to be impatient and try to guess the bottom much earlier then the economy supports.
For now I look forward for testing the lows in January, and it's a good chance will break.

]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:05:12 -0500 But usually, in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary, people will pin all their hopes on the slimmest of doubts.
I expect some massive swings throw the end of this bear market, as investors tend to be impatient and try to guess the bottom much earlier then the economy supports.
For now I look forward for testing the lows in January, and it's a good chance will break.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108500-ignore-jobs-numbers-for-market-timing?source=feed#comment-317990 317990 Although rising unemployment levels signal the beginning of a recession, profitability increases for companies (and the associated stock market averages) return long before the unemployment improves. This is a basic mechanic of capitalism.
.........................
This is just wrong. It's valid maybe on short term, but on the long term companies rely on the money employees spend for goods and return into the economy.
The unemployment numbers gives you an image of how demand for goods is looking, because if companies lay off too many it means demand is not good.
Even if labor market drops you still can find some cyclical moves that tells you the story.

We'll look back in 5 years time at this and say : Oh, it was predictable, the history repeated again.
It's a global economy, one that has no reason to stop growing on long term because population is growing at a fast rate. If a country lacks work force will import it.
The model still has no reason to change at this time. We'll all be dead by then.]]> Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:38:33 -0500 Although rising unemployment levels signal the beginning of a recession, profitability increases for companies (and the associated stock market averages) return long before the unemployment improves. This is a basic mechanic of capitalism.
.........................
This is just wrong. It's valid maybe on short term, but on the long term companies rely on the money employees spend for goods and return into the economy.
The unemployment numbers gives you an image of how demand for goods is looking, because if companies lay off too many it means demand is not good.
Even if labor market drops you still can find some cyclical moves that tells you the story.

We'll look back in 5 years time at this and say : Oh, it was predictable, the history repeated again.
It's a global economy, one that has no reason to stop growing on long term because population is growing at a fast rate. If a country lacks work force will import it.
The model still has no reason to change at this time. We'll all be dead by then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108151-a-lot-to-be-thankful-for-despite-it-all?source=feed#comment-315893 315893 I think before 4th quarter results markets are not prepared for new lows, so fortunately will all enjoy the Christmas.]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:18:09 -0500 I think before 4th quarter results markets are not prepared for new lows, so fortunately will all enjoy the Christmas.]]>