MattB's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/241779/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/141555-coal-oil-and-the-human-difficulty-of-grasping-long-duration-problems?source=feed#comment-533266 533266
Fortunately there is always a cadre of idiosynchratic individuals prepared to take a stab at solving long-range problems - real or perceived - who, along the way, invent things that contribute immediately to our wellbeing. Without "grand challenges" it is difficult for us to think beyond incremental improvement. We certainly aren't going to run out of wood, coal or oil in our lifetime, but the inspired search for "ultimate solutions" will lead us to technologies and solutions that we would otherwise never strive to discover.]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:15:24 -0400
Fortunately there is always a cadre of idiosynchratic individuals prepared to take a stab at solving long-range problems - real or perceived - who, along the way, invent things that contribute immediately to our wellbeing. Without "grand challenges" it is difficult for us to think beyond incremental improvement. We certainly aren't going to run out of wood, coal or oil in our lifetime, but the inspired search for "ultimate solutions" will lead us to technologies and solutions that we would otherwise never strive to discover.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107468-how-low-can-crude-oil-and-gas-go?source=feed#comment-313479 313479 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:35:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=feed#comment-231038 231038 Fri, 15 Aug 2008 09:30:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90882-natural-gas-clean-fuel-with-a-dirty-little-secret?source=feed#comment-229985 229985 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 07:56:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90447-while-natural-gas-production-increases-company-stock-prices-may-not?source=feed#comment-228535 228535 :-)]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:39:16 -0400 :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90447-while-natural-gas-production-increases-company-stock-prices-may-not?source=feed#comment-228478 228478 There are 19 shale basins in the US being actively drilled right now. In its recent white paper on US Shale Gas, Halliburton estimated the recoverable reserves at 500-1000 TCF.
The play that broke open this resource was the Barnett Shale under Dallas/Fort Worth. Its easterly extension into Alabama - the Fayetteville Shale - came next. Now we're seeing the same technologies applied shale all over USA ... Bossier-Haynesville, Marcellus, Woodford, Lewis, Antrim, New Albany, etc.etc.
The largest gas companies in USA - alongside a slew of fast-growing independents - are heavily focused on drilling and producing these resources ... and there's plenty of gas already in the pipeline that originates from them: about 4.5% of US nat gas supply comes from the Barnett Shale!]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 08:30:29 -0400 There are 19 shale basins in the US being actively drilled right now. In its recent white paper on US Shale Gas, Halliburton estimated the recoverable reserves at 500-1000 TCF.
The play that broke open this resource was the Barnett Shale under Dallas/Fort Worth. Its easterly extension into Alabama - the Fayetteville Shale - came next. Now we're seeing the same technologies applied shale all over USA ... Bossier-Haynesville, Marcellus, Woodford, Lewis, Antrim, New Albany, etc.etc.
The largest gas companies in USA - alongside a slew of fast-growing independents - are heavily focused on drilling and producing these resources ... and there's plenty of gas already in the pipeline that originates from them: about 4.5% of US nat gas supply comes from the Barnett Shale!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90369-oil-does-supply-and-demand-still-apply?source=feed#comment-228466 228466 First, a large fraction (if not majority) the exploration wells are targeting natural gas, not oil. Liquids production may certainly have peaked (not going to argue about when) but the global energy mix features a lot more nat gas usage today (e.g. via LNG production and transport creating an arb market) and it will continue to grow in importance.
Second, the size of new discoveries follows an approx log-normal distribution, with only rare exceptions (e.g. Brazil). You need an exponential increase in exploration success to maintain a constant reserves replacement, and global offtake is increasing, not flat.
Third, enhanced oil recovery is allowing operators to get substantially more oil from existing discoveries than was possible in the past , and technology is also allowing recovery from intervals previously considered unproducable (e.g. shale gas, dominating US growth in nat gas development) These have a not insignificant effect on the supply side as "conventional" plays are replaced by "unconventional".
Conclusion: the supply side is way too complex to simply talk about drilling success rates and some mythical peak from whence liquid hydrocarbon production will be in terminal decline...]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 08:16:33 -0400 First, a large fraction (if not majority) the exploration wells are targeting natural gas, not oil. Liquids production may certainly have peaked (not going to argue about when) but the global energy mix features a lot more nat gas usage today (e.g. via LNG production and transport creating an arb market) and it will continue to grow in importance.
Second, the size of new discoveries follows an approx log-normal distribution, with only rare exceptions (e.g. Brazil). You need an exponential increase in exploration success to maintain a constant reserves replacement, and global offtake is increasing, not flat.
Third, enhanced oil recovery is allowing operators to get substantially more oil from existing discoveries than was possible in the past , and technology is also allowing recovery from intervals previously considered unproducable (e.g. shale gas, dominating US growth in nat gas development) These have a not insignificant effect on the supply side as "conventional" plays are replaced by "unconventional".
Conclusion: the supply side is way too complex to simply talk about drilling success rates and some mythical peak from whence liquid hydrocarbon production will be in terminal decline...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90213-energy-stocks-are-too-cheap-to-ignore-barron-s?source=feed#comment-227571 227571
Don't get distracted by the home heating issue (with due respect to folks in the NE). Over 70% of a barrel of crude goes into transportation fuel (~45% motor gas & ~25% diesel/jet fuel). Until the US significantly reduces its dependency on the car to get from home to work (years), switches the motor fleet to alternative fuels or engines (technology arriving but many years to switch), and finds an alternative way to move food and consumer goods from source to centers of population (railway resurgence?), the demand for oil is staying high.

Nat gas is a great alternative, especially for power generation. The floor for nat gas price is generally set by coal, which has also been coming down but is probably near bottom (not my area of expertise - anyone care to comment on where coal prices are headed?) The floor for oil is, in my opinion, set by international supply vs. demand (e.g. China, India) rather than US demand. Provided the global economy doesn't get too adversely affected by US woes, overall supply/demand stays tight and oil price stays $90+ (long term, today's dollar value on foreign exchange)

I'm sitting tight on my US oil and gas exploration and production stocks; painful to watch them tank the past few weeks, but hopeful they will rebound (at a more sensible pace, perhaps) over next 6-12 months ... and deliver 30-40% gains (my estimate, by mid next year).]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:57:01 -0400
Don't get distracted by the home heating issue (with due respect to folks in the NE). Over 70% of a barrel of crude goes into transportation fuel (~45% motor gas & ~25% diesel/jet fuel). Until the US significantly reduces its dependency on the car to get from home to work (years), switches the motor fleet to alternative fuels or engines (technology arriving but many years to switch), and finds an alternative way to move food and consumer goods from source to centers of population (railway resurgence?), the demand for oil is staying high.

Nat gas is a great alternative, especially for power generation. The floor for nat gas price is generally set by coal, which has also been coming down but is probably near bottom (not my area of expertise - anyone care to comment on where coal prices are headed?) The floor for oil is, in my opinion, set by international supply vs. demand (e.g. China, India) rather than US demand. Provided the global economy doesn't get too adversely affected by US woes, overall supply/demand stays tight and oil price stays $90+ (long term, today's dollar value on foreign exchange)

I'm sitting tight on my US oil and gas exploration and production stocks; painful to watch them tank the past few weeks, but hopeful they will rebound (at a more sensible pace, perhaps) over next 6-12 months ... and deliver 30-40% gains (my estimate, by mid next year).]]>