MauDib

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

ACE - One of the largest global players in the property-casualty field, ACE "is very strong financially, and they have weathered the current environment quite well with a strong balance sheet," - The big question is why have there been no write downs of their $39B of investments on that strong balance sheet? Perhaps they have the consistentcy of earnings of a Madoff? Perhaps that is why they are trading at 80% of NBV? Is a 20% haircut enough? If not, the write down of another 10% would absorb 5 years of future earnings.

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

Google - repriced the employee options down 50% - so if the stock goes up, employees benefit, if stock goes down, mgt lowers the standard for employees to benefit. Sounds fair to the shareholders, I am sure the bobbing-head Board slept through that one.

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

I am Not an ebay basher - bot lots of golf clubs on Ebay years ago but my golf bag is full. I bot a flute on Ebay that was trash instead of excellent SO I will not be buying anything else on Ebay. I suspect I am not the only one. I appreciate the comments about the Ebay name - I was not aware the brand name was that toxic.

KOF is trading at a P/E of 15 and div of 1.7% I would have thought that the current decline in the DOW from 14K to 7K would have told the writers that people have wised up from big P/E's and no dividends.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

This recession is not anywhere close to the Great Depression, but it could be .. espcially if the federal govt keeps with the financial gimicks (BHO identifying $2 trillion of "savings" - 80% comes from ending the Iraq War before 2025) and keeping failing businesses and mortgage holders afloat.

Is the Market Going Lower? Silly Question!

Good comment - the market predicts the cash will go to the other interest -holders in the company, probably the execs, maybe the govt - but not the investors. This is why it is discounted to zero - the investors abdicated their power in the long bull market. So, the cash will be wasted - sort of like AIG.


On Mar 03 10:47 PM Deepv wrote:

> Also, are the retained earnings accumulated from 1997 to today worth
> nothing? S&P has $300/share net cash and interest rates are near
> zero. Seems overdone unless we are in a genuine depression.

The Average Stock Is Now Very Cheap

If the earnings stay in the business, those earnings continue to be at risk. Thus, in the coming years when the business becomes stale and loses its competitive edge, its moat around its business recedes, will the trustees for the owners grab the money and run? Like, GM, Enron, Merrill - what is human nature?

So, the risk/reward is not there for a p/e of 9-10. You can buy a stable utility for that p/e. So, as a goup, small caps are not cheap at those average prices - while individual stocks at the start of their growth cycle may be worth much more.

Is the Market Really Like a Political Tracking Poll?

The public gets to vote every two years - capitalists get to vote every day. The silent partner IRS is ready to take its cash off the top while I have to leave in my profits to fund increased receivables and inventory caused by growth - or maybe I will buy that $309 ticket to Paris since my silent partner wants 50% of the cut.

Obama Spending vs. Netanyahu Cuts: Who's Right?

The popular trend appears to be to carve out a Palestinian state out of Israel so that the terrorist-sheltering Arab govt can be right next door. I just cannot see the logic, but I am not from Arkansas.

Oracle of Omaha Warns of 'Onslaught of Inflation'

Every U.S. war since 1900 has been paid for with equity, not income (excl. Kuwait War paid by Japan Inc). Example, did WWII bonds retain their value 5 - 10 -15 years later? Post-Vietnam 1973 - look at inflation for the next 10 years as govt prints more money to monetize the debt. Iraq war: average cost per soldier per year $800,000 - give OPEC and China bad paper for their good oil and products.

Also, how do you get non-manuf workers and govt workers to take a pay cut in hard times? Answer, inflate away their fixed salaries: teachers, police officers, SS retirees - print 10% more money = pay cut of 10%.

The feds have a strong incentive to inflate as the world's largest debtor.

Eight More Companies Increase Their Dividends

Finally, someone making sense. What has to happen is that businesses increase dividends, not cut them, to encourage investment. Like buying a CD, that encourages families to save now because of increased consumption in the future, not just a hoped for and vague promise of future capital gains.

Of all the stakeholders in a business, e.g. govt taxes, employees, etc., the distant owners get the least after everyone else gets their cut - the poster child is GM.

During this decade, I read financial commentators talking about a "mouth-watering" 3 % dividend - you have got to be kidding! Give the shareholders a real return on their investment since mgt does not need the cash for growth (and growth for its own sake - questionable benefit) - bad decisions by having too much cash - Look at MicroSoft - billions of dollars of cash. Where is the IRS with the accumulated earnings tax?

The Cost of Living in Manhattan

House paid for (taxes $980/yr), Ranch paid for - view about 2 miles, not another man-made thing in sight, fed income tax rate 35%, retired at age 45. Keep the concrete canyons.

U.S. Economy: We Don't Have the Right People in Charge

This is true from the bottom to the top of our political system. For example, local city councils and school boards used to be comprised of owner/managers of small businesses. Now, people who have never had to make spending trade-offs or manage a payroll, e.g. teachers, retired military, etc., are the decision makers.

BHO has never run anthing other than a constitutional law classroom, and other less visible political leaders suffer from the same lack of management experience.

Is 'Buy and Hold' an Antiquated Theory?

Buy and hold works in only one case: businesses increase dividends, not cut them, to encourage investment in their company. Like buying a CD, that encourages families to save now because of increased consumption in the future, not just a hoped for promise of capital gains.

Of all the stakeholders in a business, e.g. govt taxes, employees, etc., the distant owners get the least and the last, meaning after everyone else gets their cut - the poster child is GM.

During this decade, I read financial commentators talking about a "mouth-watering" 3 % dividend - you have got to be kidding! Give the shareholders a real return on their investment since mgt does not need the cash for growth (and growth for its own sake - questionable benefit). How about a real return: spendable cash to me of 7% on my stock price!

Cramer's Stop Trading - Peabody Is in Freefall (3/2/09)

What has to happen is that businesses increase dividends, not cut them, to encourage investment. Like buying a CD, that encourages families to save now because of increased consumption in the future, not just a hoped for promise of capital gains - that evaporate quickly.

Of all the stakeholders in a business, e.g. govt taxes, employees, etc., the distant owners get the least after everyone else gets their cut - the poster child is GM.

During this decade, I read financial commentators talking about a "mouth-watering" 3 % dividend - you have got to be kidding! Give the shareholders a real return on their investment since mgt does not need the cash for growth (and growth for its own sake - questionable benefit) - at least 7% OR 50% of net income, whichever is lower.

Example, Conoco has 6 bbls of oil for every share of stock, yet the share is priced below 1 bbl - why? The reason is that history has shown that the govt is the #1 recipient of the cash - 35% to 50% - then the employees then mgt -- with stock options, mgt has a disincentive to distribute dividends, rather try to grow the business. This is the opportunity to change this thinking. Investors would have a real incentive to invest.

Since this is not likely to happen, I will go back to individual rental properties which give me control and, thus, real ROI - spendable cash!

5 Indicators the Economy Is Recovering

Obama made good comments about reduced govt spending which translated into his action: massive pork spending - actions speak louder than word. Not to worry, China gives us good products, OPEC gives us good oil -- we give them bad paper.

The good thing about tough times is that it forces leaders to take strong action related to productivity (cut the deadwood) that they would not do otherwise. My company will lay off 13 of 57 workers tomorrow. The owners took a 33% pay cut.

What has to happen is that businesses increase dividends, not cut them, to encourage investment. Like buying a CD, that encourages families to save now because of increased consumption in the future, not just a hoped for promise of capital gains. Of all the stakeholders in a business, e.g. govt taxes, employees, etc., the distant owners get the least after everyone else gets their cut - the poster child is GM.

During this decade, I read financial commentators talking about a "mouth-watering" 3 % dividend - you have got to be kidding! Give the shareholders a real return on their investment since mgt does not need the cash for growth (and growth for its own sake - questionable benefit).

Example, Conoco has 6 bbls of oil for every share of stock, yet the share is priced below 1 bbl - why? The reason is that history has shown that the govt is the #1 recipient of the cash - 35% - then the employees then mgt -- with stock options, mgt has a disincentive to distribute dividends, rather try to grow the business. This is the opportunity to change this thinking.