Random Idea's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/242010/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/114903-a-transaction-tax-to-reduce-liquidity-on-u-s-markets-terrible-idea?source=feed#comment-748605 748605
It would cause a net tax loss, as 1) transactions would plummet, 2) cost of capital would escalate, and 3) New York would no longer be even among the top 10 economic centers. What an idiot.]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:05:00 -0500
It would cause a net tax loss, as 1) transactions would plummet, 2) cost of capital would escalate, and 3) New York would no longer be even among the top 10 economic centers. What an idiot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151795-fair-value-for-the-s-p-500-tell-me-lies-sweet-little-lies?source=feed#comment-607503 607503
Combine that with low long-term interest rates and you find a rather large risk premium currently built into stocks (i.e. they are undervalued). Who knows where stocks go over the next 6 months or a year, but over the next ten years, we may have the best returns (10-yr returns) since the early 90's.

My fair-value model puts the S&P around 1250. Even if 10-yr bonds rise to 6%, I think equities are currently worth 1125.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:44:02 -0400
Combine that with low long-term interest rates and you find a rather large risk premium currently built into stocks (i.e. they are undervalued). Who knows where stocks go over the next 6 months or a year, but over the next ten years, we may have the best returns (10-yr returns) since the early 90's.

My fair-value model puts the S&P around 1250. Even if 10-yr bonds rise to 6%, I think equities are currently worth 1125.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147619-tobin-s-q-ratio-sends-modestly-bearish-long-term-signal?source=feed#comment-580788 580788 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:26:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140776-stocks-will-fall-37-or-gold-will-rally-60?source=feed#comment-533900 533900
If you are gonna run a comparison like this, you need to use total returns on the DJIA (S&P would actually be better) and total returns on Gold.

Actually, you are running actual returns on Gold (you receive no interest or dividend on gold) but you are ignoring roughly 1/3 of the return in stocks that comes from dividends.

Over time Gold should be consistent in its purchasing power (i.e. grow at the rate of inflation). Stocks, on the other hand have grown 5-6% faster than inflation (roughly 6% capital gains, 3% dividend). This ratio you talk about then will not be consistent over time but will be declining.]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:43:34 -0400
If you are gonna run a comparison like this, you need to use total returns on the DJIA (S&P would actually be better) and total returns on Gold.

Actually, you are running actual returns on Gold (you receive no interest or dividend on gold) but you are ignoring roughly 1/3 of the return in stocks that comes from dividends.

Over time Gold should be consistent in its purchasing power (i.e. grow at the rate of inflation). Stocks, on the other hand have grown 5-6% faster than inflation (roughly 6% capital gains, 3% dividend). This ratio you talk about then will not be consistent over time but will be declining.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134148-gmx-resources-long-term-bull-market-for-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-484658 484658

On Apr 30 12:22 PM bindlepete wrote:

> Lots of gas around unquestionably and then the geopressured resources
> -- remember them? Exxon does but the real inhibitant is the open
> issue of the carboncredits.
>
> Until we get a decisionon these no one will establish/commit to
> base load combined cycle generation based on naturalmgas usage..
> The carbon savings from this sort of fuel abd the added efficiencies
> will do great things for the nation's carbon foorprint.
>
> Got to get Washington to make some decisions and know it the politico's
> are cowards and want pay offs for their behavior in one sense or
> another. Just look at how Barney Frank has been behaving with regard
> to leadership on financial reform. Do nothing until he gets the nod.
>
>
> Now any real leader in the utility industry - not known for leadership
> since Phil Sporn - would be banging on their PUC regulators to get
> on the stick and make some decisions so they could lead Washington
> into the paths of rightiousness . Sorry, they are not ready for this
> yet. Push the decision up the line and complain when it is made.]]> Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:51:12 -0400

On Apr 30 12:22 PM bindlepete wrote:

> Lots of gas around unquestionably and then the geopressured resources
> -- remember them? Exxon does but the real inhibitant is the open
> issue of the carboncredits.
>
> Until we get a decisionon these no one will establish/commit to
> base load combined cycle generation based on naturalmgas usage..
> The carbon savings from this sort of fuel abd the added efficiencies
> will do great things for the nation's carbon foorprint.
>
> Got to get Washington to make some decisions and know it the politico's
> are cowards and want pay offs for their behavior in one sense or
> another. Just look at how Barney Frank has been behaving with regard
> to leadership on financial reform. Do nothing until he gets the nod.
>
>
> Now any real leader in the utility industry - not known for leadership
> since Phil Sporn - would be banging on their PUC regulators to get
> on the stick and make some decisions so they could lead Washington
> into the paths of rightiousness . Sorry, they are not ready for this
> yet. Push the decision up the line and complain when it is made.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122275-why-stocks-are-currently-undervalued?source=feed#comment-411295 411295

On Feb 25 11:53 AM kelm wrote:

> 1100 on the S&P by 2011 is a completely meaningless prediction.
> The fact that you recommend investors go long SPY and yet claim no
> stock positions speaks volumes.
>
> TBT is a leveraged short designed to track the 20 year treasury on
> a daily basis. I am long TBT (and PST) but it is as yet unclear how
> they perform over longer durations due to the re-balancing that is
> done to them at the close each day. Recommending such a product should
> always come with a caveat. But of course you're not long TBT either,
> just recommending it.]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:16:57 -0500

On Feb 25 11:53 AM kelm wrote:

> 1100 on the S&P by 2011 is a completely meaningless prediction.
> The fact that you recommend investors go long SPY and yet claim no
> stock positions speaks volumes.
>
> TBT is a leveraged short designed to track the 20 year treasury on
> a daily basis. I am long TBT (and PST) but it is as yet unclear how
> they perform over longer durations due to the re-balancing that is
> done to them at the close each day. Recommending such a product should
> always come with a caveat. But of course you're not long TBT either,
> just recommending it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111208-great-depression-not-imminent-but-inevitable?source=feed#comment-333050 333050 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 10:45:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89801-despite-recent-loss-jefferies-is-bullish-on-goodrich-petroleum?source=feed#comment-228140 228140 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:53:38 -0400