TheDetective

Five Hedging Strategies

This is an EXTREMELY USEFUL article! Thanks for posting. One question though, what would be those corrections required in the Excel Spreadsheet if one adds money regularly to the account?

"Note that corrections will need to be made in the "Account Change" column if you take money out of or put money into your account."

Thanks.

Bargain of the Week: First Solar

I agree with Cynnatalie2000 (what a complicated pseudonym fella!) in regards to FSLR's technology.. it seems that at least one Chinese competitor is right on target to become the cost leader in poly technology with their new plants. If that occurs, they will be able to MATCH and even improve Thin-film's current cost.. not only that, they would do so with a better technology, since the conversion rate from poly panels is more effective. How would this LIKELY scenario play out for FSLR's future margins? I don't doubt that FSLR has top management and excellent execution, however there's much you can do against better technology.. I'm not sure if the conversion rate of thin-film can be somehow improved with further R&D to compete with poly once they reach cost-parity.

Whole Foods: Gaining Steam, Not Weight

I agree with you that Whole Foods' fundamentals have improved a lot for the past 6 months amid this recession, specially considering the perception that people have over the brand ("Whole Paycheck"). I also believe that WFMI will eventually recover to where it used to be back in 2006/2007 due to the high commitment top management (specially the CEO) has over the company (Is Mr Mackey still earning a $1/yr salary? that'd be impressive). However, I also believe that this economy and specially the so-called "recovery" is not fully clear and as such, the stock has gotten a bit too far ahead of itself. At this moment, the stock is a bit overvalued given Mr Mackey's newly "thought" initiative, which is just about to be introduced and its effectiveness remains yet to be seen.. I would expect a bit of a pullback in the fall before jumping in again.

End of July Stock Market: Insanity and Disconnect

It would be interesting to know what made the market plummet big time after the 50% appreciation.. making a comparison of just a graphical trend on a chart between the two periods without the triggers behind does not guarantee we will have the same outcome this time. We should check the history and find out why is it that the market plummeted again after a 50% rebound in the 1930s. Then maybe we can somehow relate it to this period (was it that companies were cutting costs significantly on lower revenue back in the 1930s amid the 50% appreciation?). Interesting to know..

Intuitive Surgical: A Hidden Gem

I made the decision to short the stock twice. Once before their earnings announcement: once from $157 to $147 (made a profit) and the second right in their earnings announcement.. this second one was quite painful. It really surprised because I don't question their great technology, great management and the quasi-monopolistic position they enjoy, but I expected the economic crisis to have an impact on them, specially since I read almost EVERYWHERE (including the American Hospitals Association) that the crisis was causing severe budget and capital constraints for all Hospitals. It really surprised me, since these were factors beyond ISRG's management control. So, the net effect was a net zero gain (what I gained in the first short I lost in the second by covering after-hours); however it does prove that their technology is proving to be supreme that even amidst an economic crisis they are selling their product..

The Great Credit Crunch Continues Unabated

So if you have accurately and correctly predicted some big market shocks, can you please tell us what will happen next? Maybe this time we can be prepared..

No Recession Seen in Medical Costs

Perhaps 2010-2011 will present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to short the Healthcare Sector, similar to what was done to the Real Estate in 2007/2008. Healthcare is showing a very similar uptrend (excessive, with service quality diminishing significantly while costs continue to go up) with a total disconnect on the current economy (and the fact that supposedly "technological advances" should made healthcare services cheaper, not more expensive).

The Fed's Balance Sheet for the Week of June 24: What's Not Adding Up

I believe you have to account for the little-noticed switch on June 1 where the Fed started to account for different buyers as "Indirect Bidders", giving the impression (purposely, mind you) that there's an increased interest by Foreign Governments/Sovereign Funds in our beloved Treasuries/Debt. Isn't it cool this kind of manipulation can take place by the Government to make things look all right? After all, this is allowed because deep in the archives of the Fed there are laws that allow placing traders from different angles into the "Indirect Bidders" bracket, inherently BOOSTING this measure.

Why Is First Solar So Far Ahead of the Competition?

I'M SHORTING FIRST SOLAR JUST ABOUT NOW!

The Right Way to Look at Cash Flow

Excellent article! Thanks for sharing the "adjusted" formula.. it always made sense to me and I had used it before, but now I have other advocates supporting it.

Flying High with Mexican Monopolies

PAC experienced a significant drop on Feb 2006, and the stock hasn't recovered ever since. I wonder what were the driving factors for such decline.. Since this is a very stable, simple business I would wonder why the significant volatility.