Seeking Alpha

Nick Shadow

Nick Shadow
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  • Is J.C. Penney Past The Point Of No Return? [View article]
    I am not sure what they may see. But I suggest they would like to find a way out. They make mistakes and have losers just like everyone else. Or perhaps I am the only one with a couple of dogs in my portfolio?

    I think about them often, and then move on,

    Jan 22, 2014. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Could Beat Earnings Estimates In Fiscal Year 2015 [View article]

    That is a very interesting tid-bit, thanks

    Jan 21, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Set To Soar, Target Price $17 [View article]

    BugleBoy (of company 3?)

    He brings a tablet back when the commercial customers start requesting them to round out an installation. If he starts to lose deals over not having one, or they can integrate them to the point where they add to the sale, then you will see them.

    I also suggest that they will have a model, or the same model, will work for the consumer. That way he can dabble in both markets. However, I think the days of them going out for the consumer tablet market are over, at least for a while.

    Jan 20, 2014. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Buy The Dip [View article]

    I have no trouble with the ONE CENT per qtr. I am up about 34%. Takes a lot of 3% div payments to catch up with that gain. There are jokes, then there are jokes.

    Jan 16, 2014. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Buy The Dip [View article]
    Nicely done, thanks for putting this together. It helps also that I agree with you, and did buy the dip.


    Also think it interesting that if this had been a BBRY article, you would have about 50 comments by now.
    Jan 16, 2014. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Short Interest Falls Off The Cliff [View article]

    I will take a shot at it, and be grateful if someone would correct me if I get parts of it wrong, school was a ways back.

    I think in the pre market you have people basically laying bets, as to where it is going that day. The market makers certainly play a roll also as they have market orders that have accumulated while the market (regular session) is closed. These buys/sells are to be executed on the regular session open. Let's say I place a market order with Wells at 6 am and go to work, that order will be executed on the open. With a bunch of these piled up, the MM has some latitude as to how he/she matches those orders and executes the trades. Some in the past have referred to this as a license to steal, but that is just traders being traders. You get a vol spike as the queue is traded.

    It is the best as I remember,

    Jan 13, 2014. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Short Interest Falls Off The Cliff [View article]

    As to the time line for development of the Asian phone, normally I would agree on the year timeline. However, I might suggest that BB was well into it, and handed the project to Foxconn.

    I am also (for what it is worth) in complete agreement with the short exit #'s. The longer they wait the more problematic. I would like to see your 2% per day, but that might be a bit optimistic. :)

    Jan 13, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At BlackBerry's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    As I write this the stock is up $.86, 13.76%. (make that .92 and 14.8)

    The long positions are holding their breath and shorts are grabbing their, ugh, hair.

    Technically: yesterday it broke it's 20 sma, today it broke it's 50 sma. It has also closed the gap between $7.37 and $7.11, or nearly so, high for the day is $7.34. Close enough.

    To some this is all mumbo jumbo, but short term technical traders watch these things closely.

    I agree with those above (for what it is worth, who asked me, right?), this is a minor short covering rally with support of longs that liked what Chen said. I always considered this call more about how he handled the situation than the numbers.

    IMHO, if it closes above $7 today, and for any reason gaps up tomorrow, the short closing may start in earnest. Not that every short position will go away, many will stop out and pick another entry spot. I would, if I believed Chen wrong and the company dead, which I do not.

    I will stick my neck out a bit further. If climbs past the $7.37 mark and holds it to close today, if I were short, I would be very nervous. Yes, it might be a temporary spike, but it could be a big one, and that gets dicey.

    Lastly, I would watch for more communication, news and positive spin from BB in the future, which may account for the above mentioned gap(s). They have name to rebuild and I can see the difference in what they are saying to the media since JC came along. It was a nice touch today that he asked for support from the analysts on the call.

    Dec 20, 2013. 01:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Take An Order! [View article]

    I have tried and tried to see the short side of this trade at these levels and it always comes up (at least to me) that the risk/reward just isn't there.

    Nicely put,

    Dec 17, 2013. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Take An Order! [View article]

    I agree whole heartily. WAL-MART has skinned many, many.

    Dec 17, 2013. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Take An Order! [View article]
    This is inventory has been written down against Cost of goods sold. As they sell them (recover revenue) that portion of the transaction goes back the other way.

    Perhaps another way to look at this is as follows. If 10,000 people lined up outside a store to purchase the devices and the cameras caught it, the stock would explode on the news. Please think of a community that you know that is roughly 10K in population in one spot to purchase.

    Of course you would say, yes but the margins on those sales would be significantly higher, all good. Well the transaction costs and related middle men involved are also much, much higher than BB provisioning that gear and shipping it in bulk numbers.

    Then there the related services, installation, training, service contracts, perhaps custom software and other on-going revenue streams. The upshot is they can sell them at cost and make a nice profit. I am not saying this was a "home run" but it could be significant. Selling in chunks has a far different cost structure than retail. Is one deal like this going to save them, of course not, but it sure as heck isn't a negative. One needs to consider the entire revenue stream. Guessing about the price and profit based you what anyone "thinks" just isn't very helpful.

    Dec 17, 2013. 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can BlackBerry Be Trusted? [View article]

    I watch your posts carefully as I consider your ideas well thought out and realistic. However your comment above suggests that there is nothing between where they are now and a completed turnaround, suggesting to me that nothing good will happen for several years.

    Having watched many a turn around, both successful and not, I submit the the whole thing is a process, meaning there is value being created or destroyed constantly.

    Thanks for the work and the information,

    Dec 13, 2013. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will QNX Be The Savior Of BlackBerry? [View article]
    Well some one had to say it. Tomorrow we will be back to the falling knife.
    Dec 10, 2013. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will QNX Be The Savior Of BlackBerry? [View article]

    Guess I lost it for a moment, thanks for the wake up.

    Dec 10, 2013. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will QNX Be The Savior Of BlackBerry? [View article]
    I suggest that what you are seeing in the stock is capitulation, mostly by retail investors. Is it over? I haven't a clue.

    However there is the professional money, they are watching, they always are.

    I would suggest that shorting the stock at this level has very little profit potential, but a serious risk of loss. As absurd as it sounds, being short has the potential for unlimited loss.

    I am not advocating either way, my thoughts are based on risk/reward, and I don't see it.

    I know the short squeeze thing has been bandied about forever, but ask Bill Ackman (sp) how wrong things can go, Herbalife. Last I heard, he is down about 500 million, according to Bloomberg.

    Dec 10, 2013. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment