Chris B

Alternative Energy's Sunny Outlook

Solar's big disadvantage is that it is considered the most expensive electricity available. The common complaint is that massive solar expansion would require (a) a 3X increase in electricity costs, or (b) massive taxpayer subsidies.

However, to ensure comparability, let's consider how we "socialize" the costs of other energy sources:

Oil: Trillions of dollars and thousands of dead soldiers to secure oil supplies and routes, tens of thousands of cancers caused by carcinogenic gasoline, dictatorships propped up, periodic and inevitable oil spills, economy crashes every time the price rises.

Nuclear: Government pays most costs for security, inspection, safety regulation, research, waste transport, waste storage, lawsuits from waste storage, cleanup of any disasters, etc.

Coal: We all accept higher levels of mercury, arsenic, etc. in our air and water as a tradeoff. Occasional coal ash spills, cleaned up by taxpayers.

When one looks at TOTAL costs, not just costs to companies, solar, hydro, geothermal, and wind power are quite competitive. I would say that solar and geothermal have the most potential for technological advances. When solar cells can be made as cheaply as roofing shingles or when geothermal is developed to function at lower temps or deeper depths, there will be a revolution in how electricity is produced. Progress is continuing at a fast pace, but adoption is being held back by only looking at part of the numbers.

Alternative Energy Industry Outlook

Misha,

I'm intrigued by Razer too, but I have serious concerns about management. Just go to their website to see what I mean. They have 2 divisions: geothermal electricity and manufacturing electric motors. These two industries have nothing to do with each other and no apparent synergies - strike one.

Far worse, they claim that this electric motor is so efficient, that they can build a 100 MPG full-size SUV hybrid with it - as in a friggin' Suburban. Miraculously, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Proton, Tata, Hyundai, Chery and Caterpillar have all failed to beat a path to Razer's door despite their own struggles to make a 50 MPG mini-car hybrid. They won't sell this miracle motor to you, and to objectively test it or even look at it you have to sign a legal agreement that exposes you to the risk of a lawsuit. To a lot of investors, this gives the appearance of being a bogus claim, which is why the shorts have been attacking from the start. Look up the history of Zap! automotive for an idea of what they see in RZ - a company designed to do little more than absorb the dollars from a wave of green retail investors.

If they are overstating their technology, what else are they overstating?

Further, the energy conversion devices they utilize are purchased from United Technologies (UTX) and anybody can buy them, so there is no competitive moat or technology ownership. US Geothermal (HTM) uses a different design produced by industry leader Ormat (ORA) to do the same thing. I wish Ormat was priced more reasonably. I can't force myself to pay 25 times earnings for a utility.


On Jan 16 12:36 PM Misha wrote:

> Can some one comment on the rational for a less favorable opinion
> on geothermal (e.g. RZ)?