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You article states that "in the 1991 and 2001 recessions it took 15 months for unemployment to start declining."
Aug 25 09:57 am
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All Comments by GregT »Paychex: A Growth Machine [View article]
Even the more bullish economists predicting a "V" recovery are not optimistic about employment coming back quickly. It is very likely that it will take longer than 15 months for employment to stop declining after this recession. At the same time, interest rates will stay low so the payroll processor's ability to make money in this area will be limited as well.
Both ADP and PAYX are great companies and I have owned both for quite some time, but I'm not optimistic about outsized stock price growth in the short to medium term.