GregT

J&J vs. 10-Year T-Bonds: The Power of Rising Dividends

Good article and JNJ is an excellent example to use for this discussion. I have owned them for close to 20 years.

And the 10% projected gain is a very conservative one. It is using the current P/E which is quite low. It is using a fairly low dividend growth rate estimate. And it does not include the impact of share buybacks which could add another 1 or 2 percent to the annual gains.

So while JNJ has not provided a great return over the past 10 years, it is very likely to be a great holding over the next 10.

In Defense of Meredith Whitney

Just to address one of Whitney's points that Shulman tout's without clarity. He said "Consumer credit continues to contract - credit lines are down $1.5 trillion."

We need to remember that these are credit "card" lines. Most credit card users come nowhere near their credit limits. The card companies have reduced credit limits as the economy has gone into recession. This is normal. Shulman tries to make it seem like 1.5 trillion has actually been removed from the economy.

Most of the time, analysts like Whitney who make one correct call like to parlay their fame into bigger and better things. She is now predicting the whole economy rather than just analyzing banks. We'll have to see if she continue to get things right or turns into a perma bear. Another person who predicted the downturn and made billions doing it (Paulson) is very bullish right now. We'll see who is right.

Q3 Sentiment for Consumer Products: General Mills Leads, Coke Gains Ground

Without knowing much about "sentiment", I would have to say that I'm skeptical of using it. It seems like a way to invest "with the herd" and probably would encourage buying a stock too late and selling at the worst time.

The end of the article said: "Overall this group [consumer products] under performed for the quarter. Sentiment for the S&P 500 was up over 40%, while this group lost on average 4% in sentiment."

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the S&P was lead by cyclical and financial shares - the same shares that had the biggest drops when things started to go south a year ago. Now that the cyclical/financial stocks have reached more typical valuations, it would not be surprising to see traditional "growth" stocks lead the market. In fact, that has been happening recently as companies like PEP and PG are gaining on analyst's comments that they are very inexpensive by a number of measures.

Betting on a Stable Bond Market Now

I agree with bmontgo's comment. It seems holding TBT would do the opposite of the TLT and TNX positions. Is it a way to maintain price stability regardless of interest rate changes?

GDP Manipulation? You Should Consider Shorting the Market

It is certainly true that the US government plays a huge part in manipulating the economy and many aspects of consumer investing/purchasing. This has been the case for decades going back to before the Great Depression. It is also true that the amount of manipulation has increased over the years.

But the big question is not whether or not this manipulation exists, but when it might come home to roost. While US debt has increased dramatically in the last couple years and will continue to do so, it is unclear that the heavy debt will cause a major problem for the US economy or the markets in the near term - the next couple years. It is certainly unhealthy, but the markets care less about government balance sheets than they do about corporate profits. All indications are that corporate profits will be recovering - perhaps strongly. At least in the near term, it is likely that markets will remain positive. Short term technical pullbacks are certainly a possibility, but the market is likely to be higher in 1 to 2 years.

Is Wells Fargo Regretting Its Wachovia Acquisition?

A lot of claims are made in this article without any substantive points to back them up.

Before people like you call for the break up of the large banks by the government, you should consider that the government cannot and should not create rules and procedures for it's own convenience. The government wanted WFC to buy Wachovia so it would not have to absorb the costs of the cleanup. It forced BAC to buy MER to avoid a systemic collapse of our financial system. For the government to now turn around and require a breakup of the very mergers it supported/required would be completely wrongheaded and contradictory.

It becomes quite scary indeed when the government and supporters of heavy handed govnerment regulation like the author base public policy on what is most convenient at the time for the government rather than on fairness and common sense.

4 Dividend Stocks to Hedge Against Social Security Failure

The reason to buy these stocks rather than munis or other high yielding stocks is dividend GROWTH. The income producing securities that User251091 mentioned offer either little or no income growth. Dividend growth stocks increase their payout each year. It is like a government worker with a COLA pension - except that many good companies increase their dividend much more than the rate of inflation.

Paychex: A Growth Machine

You article states that "in the 1991 and 2001 recessions it took 15 months for unemployment to start declining."

Even the more bullish economists predicting a "V" recovery are not optimistic about employment coming back quickly. It is very likely that it will take longer than 15 months for employment to stop declining after this recession. At the same time, interest rates will stay low so the payroll processor's ability to make money in this area will be limited as well.

Both ADP and PAYX are great companies and I have owned both for quite some time, but I'm not optimistic about outsized stock price growth in the short to medium term.

Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow

Let's not start worshipping at Roubini's alter. He correctly predicted the financial crisis. BUT he was dead wrong in predicted a continued decline and all sorts of doomsday scenarios. So now he has shifted his focus to predicted the type of recovery we will have rather than preaching continued doom.

In my book he got only the initial call right. It is very rare for economists or market analysts to continue to be correct in their prognostications. They tend to stay in whatever "camp" got them the fame and they miss the turn. It happens to both bulls and bears. Remember perenial bull Abby Joseph Cohen.

At this point Roubini is capitalizing on his recent fame, but his predictions at the beginning of this year completely failed to predict where we are right now and chances are that his current predictions will be wrong too.

Big Banks: Still in Charge

The irony in this article suggesting that certain large banks like BofA should be split up to avoid the devastation their failure could cause is that it was the government "made" BofA complete it's takeover of Merrill Lynch in order to prevent a financial meltdown and would now be making BofA split itself up to avoid the potential for financial devastation.

We can't have it both ways. We can't use the healthy banks to buy the troubled banks when it is convenient and then turn around and say that the now combined bank is too large and must be split up.

The BofA / Merrill Mess - A Misguided Mob Goes After the Wrong Guy

Worthless rambling without any real insight.

Why Congress Is Asking Bernanke Bogus Questions

Your commentary shows a very poor understanding of the events that have taken place over the last 9 months. It sounds more like political rambling than an intelligent analysis of the matters. And I will add that my criticism of your commentary is not because I disagree with everything you've said. It is because of the very poor logic and observation you apply to the facts. Quite honestly, someone with your level of critical thinking should not be writing articles for Seeking Alpha.

How Will a Single Payer Health Care System Affect Pharmaceutical Prices?

But an 8% drop in revenue can translate into a much bigger drop in earnings per share - perhaps as much as 30%. Assuming that P/E's stay the same, it could mean a 30% share price drop. Granted, some of this drop has already been priced into the current stock prices, but not the full 30%.

Wells Fargo: Signs of Stress?

Unlike BAC's purchase of MER which was decided over a tumultuous weekend during which Lehman went under, WFC purchase of Wachovia was well thought out and weighed. Furthermore, any comparison between the two is not valid. MER was an investment bank with much more difficult to evaluate risks. Wachovia was mainly hampered by the Golden West purchase. The risks to Wachovia were much easier to evaluate and understand. In simple terms, BAC made the MER purchase quite blindly when buying the more complex to understand investment bank, while WFC exercised a fair amount of due dilligence in buying a relatively traditional banking operation.

Having said that, the main conclusion that WFC could be in for a dividend cut and problems in the future is certainly valid. In fact, California's announcement yesterday that 20,000 state workers will lose their jobs is certainly not good for WFC.

Why I Had to Sell Ecolab

Quite honestly I'm not sure that your sale of ECL because of an 8% or greater drop is "news worthy". Imagine how clogged up my Yahoo news page would get if someone wrote an article every time a stock I track dropped 8% or more. Not every trade deserves a blog entry if there is no real substance behind or insight behind it.

Furthermore, your style of "investing" is more akin to gambling than anything else. I read a couple of your entries and you think nothing of putting 50% or your portfolio in a single short term trade. No true investor, whether trading for the short term or long term, would ever allocate so agressively.