GregT's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/242720/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174227-j-j-vs-10-year-t-bonds-the-power-of-rising-dividends?source=feed#comment-766896 766896
And the 10% projected gain is a very conservative one. It is using the current P/E which is quite low. It is using a fairly low dividend growth rate estimate. And it does not include the impact of share buybacks which could add another 1 or 2 percent to the annual gains.

So while JNJ has not provided a great return over the past 10 years, it is very likely to be a great holding over the next 10.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 07:06:38 -0500
And the 10% projected gain is a very conservative one. It is using the current P/E which is quite low. It is using a fairly low dividend growth rate estimate. And it does not include the impact of share buybacks which could add another 1 or 2 percent to the annual gains.

So while JNJ has not provided a great return over the past 10 years, it is very likely to be a great holding over the next 10.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173961-in-defense-of-meredith-whitney?source=feed#comment-765007 765007
We need to remember that these are credit "card" lines. Most credit card users come nowhere near their credit limits. The card companies have reduced credit limits as the economy has gone into recession. This is normal. Shulman tries to make it seem like 1.5 trillion has actually been removed from the economy.

Most of the time, analysts like Whitney who make one correct call like to parlay their fame into bigger and better things. She is now predicting the whole economy rather than just analyzing banks. We'll have to see if she continue to get things right or turns into a perma bear. Another person who predicted the downturn and made billions doing it (Paulson) is very bullish right now. We'll see who is right.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 08:01:48 -0500
We need to remember that these are credit "card" lines. Most credit card users come nowhere near their credit limits. The card companies have reduced credit limits as the economy has gone into recession. This is normal. Shulman tries to make it seem like 1.5 trillion has actually been removed from the economy.

Most of the time, analysts like Whitney who make one correct call like to parlay their fame into bigger and better things. She is now predicting the whole economy rather than just analyzing banks. We'll have to see if she continue to get things right or turns into a perma bear. Another person who predicted the downturn and made billions doing it (Paulson) is very bullish right now. We'll see who is right.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164999-q3-sentiment-for-consumer-products-general-mills-leads-coke-gains-ground?source=feed#comment-704725 704725
The end of the article said: "Overall this group [consumer products] under performed for the quarter. Sentiment for the S&P 500 was up over 40%, while this group lost on average 4% in sentiment."

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the S&P was lead by cyclical and financial shares - the same shares that had the biggest drops when things started to go south a year ago. Now that the cyclical/financial stocks have reached more typical valuations, it would not be surprising to see traditional "growth" stocks lead the market. In fact, that has been happening recently as companies like PEP and PG are gaining on analyst's comments that they are very inexpensive by a number of measures.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:10:20 -0400
The end of the article said: "Overall this group [consumer products] under performed for the quarter. Sentiment for the S&P 500 was up over 40%, while this group lost on average 4% in sentiment."

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the S&P was lead by cyclical and financial shares - the same shares that had the biggest drops when things started to go south a year ago. Now that the cyclical/financial stocks have reached more typical valuations, it would not be surprising to see traditional "growth" stocks lead the market. In fact, that has been happening recently as companies like PEP and PG are gaining on analyst's comments that they are very inexpensive by a number of measures.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163831-betting-on-a-stable-bond-market-now?source=feed#comment-696610 696610 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:27:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161010-gdp-manipulation-you-should-consider-shorting-the-market?source=feed#comment-671661 671661
But the big question is not whether or not this manipulation exists, but when it might come home to roost. While US debt has increased dramatically in the last couple years and will continue to do so, it is unclear that the heavy debt will cause a major problem for the US economy or the markets in the near term - the next couple years. It is certainly unhealthy, but the markets care less about government balance sheets than they do about corporate profits. All indications are that corporate profits will be recovering - perhaps strongly. At least in the near term, it is likely that markets will remain positive. Short term technical pullbacks are certainly a possibility, but the market is likely to be higher in 1 to 2 years.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 07:36:07 -0400
But the big question is not whether or not this manipulation exists, but when it might come home to roost. While US debt has increased dramatically in the last couple years and will continue to do so, it is unclear that the heavy debt will cause a major problem for the US economy or the markets in the near term - the next couple years. It is certainly unhealthy, but the markets care less about government balance sheets than they do about corporate profits. All indications are that corporate profits will be recovering - perhaps strongly. At least in the near term, it is likely that markets will remain positive. Short term technical pullbacks are certainly a possibility, but the market is likely to be higher in 1 to 2 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159603-is-wells-fargo-regretting-its-wachovia-acquisition?source=feed#comment-659875 659875
Before people like you call for the break up of the large banks by the government, you should consider that the government cannot and should not create rules and procedures for it's own convenience. The government wanted WFC to buy Wachovia so it would not have to absorb the costs of the cleanup. It forced BAC to buy MER to avoid a systemic collapse of our financial system. For the government to now turn around and require a breakup of the very mergers it supported/required would be completely wrongheaded and contradictory.

It becomes quite scary indeed when the government and supporters of heavy handed govnerment regulation like the author base public policy on what is most convenient at the time for the government rather than on fairness and common sense.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 07:32:49 -0400
Before people like you call for the break up of the large banks by the government, you should consider that the government cannot and should not create rules and procedures for it's own convenience. The government wanted WFC to buy Wachovia so it would not have to absorb the costs of the cleanup. It forced BAC to buy MER to avoid a systemic collapse of our financial system. For the government to now turn around and require a breakup of the very mergers it supported/required would be completely wrongheaded and contradictory.

It becomes quite scary indeed when the government and supporters of heavy handed govnerment regulation like the author base public policy on what is most convenient at the time for the government rather than on fairness and common sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158173-4-dividend-stocks-to-hedge-against-social-security-failure?source=feed#comment-645216 645216 Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:51:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158151-paychex-a-growth-machine?source=feed#comment-645098 645098
Even the more bullish economists predicting a "V" recovery are not optimistic about employment coming back quickly. It is very likely that it will take longer than 15 months for employment to stop declining after this recession. At the same time, interest rates will stay low so the payroll processor's ability to make money in this area will be limited as well.

Both ADP and PAYX are great companies and I have owned both for quite some time, but I'm not optimistic about outsized stock price growth in the short to medium term.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:57:10 -0400
Even the more bullish economists predicting a "V" recovery are not optimistic about employment coming back quickly. It is very likely that it will take longer than 15 months for employment to stop declining after this recession. At the same time, interest rates will stay low so the payroll processor's ability to make money in this area will be limited as well.

Both ADP and PAYX are great companies and I have owned both for quite some time, but I'm not optimistic about outsized stock price growth in the short to medium term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158123-roubini-is-right-recovery-will-be-slow?source=feed#comment-645007 645007
In my book he got only the initial call right. It is very rare for economists or market analysts to continue to be correct in their prognostications. They tend to stay in whatever "camp" got them the fame and they miss the turn. It happens to both bulls and bears. Remember perenial bull Abby Joseph Cohen.

At this point Roubini is capitalizing on his recent fame, but his predictions at the beginning of this year completely failed to predict where we are right now and chances are that his current predictions will be wrong too.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:22:00 -0400
In my book he got only the initial call right. It is very rare for economists or market analysts to continue to be correct in their prognostications. They tend to stay in whatever "camp" got them the fame and they miss the turn. It happens to both bulls and bears. Remember perenial bull Abby Joseph Cohen.

At this point Roubini is capitalizing on his recent fame, but his predictions at the beginning of this year completely failed to predict where we are right now and chances are that his current predictions will be wrong too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157630-big-banks-still-in-charge?source=feed#comment-642887 642887
We can't have it both ways. We can't use the healthy banks to buy the troubled banks when it is convenient and then turn around and say that the now combined bank is too large and must be split up.]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 06:56:12 -0400
We can't have it both ways. We can't use the healthy banks to buy the troubled banks when it is convenient and then turn around and say that the now combined bank is too large and must be split up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145739-the-bofa-merrill-mess-a-misguided-mob-goes-after-the-wrong-guy?source=feed#comment-565359 565359 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 05:10:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145588-why-congress-is-asking-bernanke-bogus-questions?source=feed#comment-563449 563449 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:52:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142105-how-will-a-single-payer-health-care-system-affect-pharmaceutical-prices?source=feed#comment-538466 538466 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:23:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121169-wells-fargo-signs-of-stress?source=feed#comment-393141 393141
Having said that, the main conclusion that WFC could be in for a dividend cut and problems in the future is certainly valid. In fact, California's announcement yesterday that 20,000 state workers will lose their jobs is certainly not good for WFC.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 07:55:39 -0500
Having said that, the main conclusion that WFC could be in for a dividend cut and problems in the future is certainly valid. In fact, California's announcement yesterday that 20,000 state workers will lose their jobs is certainly not good for WFC.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120414-why-i-had-to-sell-ecolab?source=feed#comment-386870 386870
Furthermore, your style of "investing" is more akin to gambling than anything else. I read a couple of your entries and you think nothing of putting 50% or your portfolio in a single short term trade. No true investor, whether trading for the short term or long term, would ever allocate so agressively.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:43:44 -0500
Furthermore, your style of "investing" is more akin to gambling than anything else. I read a couple of your entries and you think nothing of putting 50% or your portfolio in a single short term trade. No true investor, whether trading for the short term or long term, would ever allocate so agressively.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117295-bad-bank-and-draft-bill-spook-cds-traders-and-wall-street?source=feed#comment-369626 369626
What has happened however, is that our financial industry is making profits without actually helping the economy. In fact, many of the financial instruments recently created have hurt the economy. It is one thing for a corporation to use credit default swaps to insure their own risks. It is quite another thing for investment houses to use credit default swaps when they are not insuring any underlying risk. The second use is pure speculation and provides no benefit to the American economy. Furthermore, since this "insurance" is unregulated, there are no requirements that the companies selling CDS's have adequate reserves to pay for defaults as they happen (e.g. AIG).

The net result is that taxpayers have had to fund these losses which never even provided a benefit to the economy to begin with.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:04:14 -0500
What has happened however, is that our financial industry is making profits without actually helping the economy. In fact, many of the financial instruments recently created have hurt the economy. It is one thing for a corporation to use credit default swaps to insure their own risks. It is quite another thing for investment houses to use credit default swaps when they are not insuring any underlying risk. The second use is pure speculation and provides no benefit to the American economy. Furthermore, since this "insurance" is unregulated, there are no requirements that the companies selling CDS's have adequate reserves to pay for defaults as they happen (e.g. AIG).

The net result is that taxpayers have had to fund these losses which never even provided a benefit to the economy to begin with.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115277-how-the-government-forced-bofa-to-marry-merrill-lynch?source=feed#comment-359099 359099 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 12:59:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112886-take-a-helping-of-sysco?source=feed#comment-343312 343312 Thu, 01 Jan 2009 10:36:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111214-sysco-a-surprising-inflation-hedge?source=feed#comment-332839 332839 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:20:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111357-mdu-resources-obama-s-kind-of-company?source=feed#comment-332833 332833 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:12:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108509-get-paid-to-go-long-bank-of-america?source=feed#comment-318018 318018
At this point, I will be very surprised if the stock goes down to $10. That was a special situation based on the problems that Citi was experiencing. With the gov"mint" bailout of Citi, it would seem unlikely that we'll go that low. But you never know in this crazy market. LOL]]> Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:18:45 -0500
At this point, I will be very surprised if the stock goes down to $10. That was a special situation based on the problems that Citi was experiencing. With the gov"mint" bailout of Citi, it would seem unlikely that we'll go that low. But you never know in this crazy market. LOL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108231-donaldson-on-its-way-to-a-20th-record-year?source=feed#comment-316089 316089 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 05:32:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106036-ge-s-immelt-buys-shares-should-you?source=feed#comment-305886 305886
Just consider that GE has stopped raising it's dividend for the first time in over 30 years. Consider that GE had to pay Buffett 10% to borrow money. Is that the kind of rate that a real AAA rated company should be paying?

The main theme over the past year has always been that things turn out worse than they appear. GE has continued to surprise on the downside with both earnings and news.

Trying to guess when these surprises will end is simply a gamble.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:26:58 -0500
Just consider that GE has stopped raising it's dividend for the first time in over 30 years. Consider that GE had to pay Buffett 10% to borrow money. Is that the kind of rate that a real AAA rated company should be paying?

The main theme over the past year has always been that things turn out worse than they appear. GE has continued to surprise on the downside with both earnings and news.

Trying to guess when these surprises will end is simply a gamble.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98144-ge-finally-joins-victims-of-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-271313 271313
In my book, this is a company that is just short of dishonest and doing the spin doctor thing. Time for a new CEO.]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 07:20:34 -0400
In my book, this is a company that is just short of dishonest and doing the spin doctor thing. Time for a new CEO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97453-first-time-in-thirty-years-ge-won-t-raise-dividend?source=feed#comment-268221 268221
One of the big benefits of being a dividend investor is that you realize that "dividends don't lie." When a company stops increasing the dividend they are signaling trouble. Why wasn't the dividend increased a token 1% or so? Why stop a run of 3 decades of dividend increases? Because, as most have pointed out, things are not good.

Are all of the problems reflected in the stock price? Maybe most of them are, but we've had a lot of surprises from this once very consistent company.]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 07:21:16 -0400
One of the big benefits of being a dividend investor is that you realize that "dividends don't lie." When a company stops increasing the dividend they are signaling trouble. Why wasn't the dividend increased a token 1% or so? Why stop a run of 3 decades of dividend increases? Because, as most have pointed out, things are not good.

Are all of the problems reflected in the stock price? Maybe most of them are, but we've had a lot of surprises from this once very consistent company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97099-where-s-the-bottom-still-anybody-s-guess?source=feed#comment-263266 263266 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 08:03:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97099-where-s-the-bottom-still-anybody-s-guess?source=feed#comment-263265 263265 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 08:03:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95679-addicted-to-debt?source=feed#comment-261192 261192 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:56:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95781-ge-struggling-short-term-but-should-do-fine-long-term?source=feed#comment-256743 256743
However, if neither of these happens by the time they report quarterly earnings, we should see some strength in the stock. There are big advantages in this market to having a AAA credit rating. GE will be able to do deals profitably that others won't. Take a look at WFC. They have lots of access to cheap capital and they have grown their revenues tremendously because their competitors are having trouble.

It's not often that you can get a company with this kind of quality at such a good price.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 07:16:56 -0400
However, if neither of these happens by the time they report quarterly earnings, we should see some strength in the stock. There are big advantages in this market to having a AAA credit rating. GE will be able to do deals profitably that others won't. Take a look at WFC. They have lots of access to cheap capital and they have grown their revenues tremendously because their competitors are having trouble.

It's not often that you can get a company with this kind of quality at such a good price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95232-we-re-still-a-long-way-from-a-real-banking-crisis?source=feed#comment-254437 254437
We no longer live in such a simple world!!!!! (But I bet a lot of people wish we did).]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:12:34 -0400
We no longer live in such a simple world!!!!! (But I bet a lot of people wish we did).]]>