Doug Korthof

A123: Hype or Hope?

Tradermark,

You spotted the crucial (deceptive) claim:

"...the number of hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid and electric cars will grow from 19 models in 2009 at an annual production rate of at least 20,000 vehicles to more than 150 models in 2014 and more than 200 models in 2019, A123 said in its IPO filing..."

What they DON'T say is that ALL of the 19 current models selling 20,000 or more have TINY 1 kWh BATTERY PACKS, not large packs. Most of Aone's sales are to power tool makers, not plug-in cars. NONE of the existing small-battery hybrids use Lithium; all of them use lead or NiMH. Sure, that's an opportunity, if the Aone batteries work out; but the reason Li is not being used is that so far, no Lithium HAS worked out.

So what they really should have admitted is that their business plan calls for a radical change in the product mix of "hybrid-electric, plug-in electric and electric car", because NONE of the latter two are included in that 19 models, it's only the "mild" or "parallel" hybrids that can't plug in, their battery is too small. Not much of a market there! Just 1 kWh per car, and so far, NiMH has proven the champ, a 40-pound NiMH Prius battery (including case and fan, 78 lbs) lasts about 200,000 miles for a retail cost of $3000 (mfg. cost $800). So what would you be saving by going to a 35-pound Li battery at $2500 mfg. cost?

That's all the weight you'd be saving, because you can't depth-discharge the Li for safety, and the dumbed-down Li Fe PO3 batteries are not much lighter than NiMH (and the voltage is lower, 3.2 vs. 4.2, meaning more cells).

The conclusion is not that Aone doesn't work, its that if the Oil-Auto companies were serious about putting real EVs on the road, they would use existing lead and NiMH batteries, first, and then upgrade to Lithium if it pans out.

ALL successful EVS (EV1, HondaEV, RAV4-EV, RangerEV, S10-E) were developed using lead-acid batteries, and, later, upgraded to NiMH when it became available. That's the way you develop real cars, you start with what you've actually got, and improve it in a process-engineering series of measured improvements.

A123: Hype or Hope?

John,
Our plug-in cars are charged with OFF-PEAK electric using credits from our excess daytime production of electric from our rooftop solar system. We paid off our solar system in less than 3 years with the money we saved NOT buying gas; it only takes 250 kWh of electric to power an EV for 1000 miles per month, that's about what two old, inefficient beer refrigerators use to cool the brew!

It's an old canard that electric cars would cause a shortage of electric; in reality, we've NEVER had a shortage of electric, the problem has been trying to get people to use more of it. Rememer those "Medallion" homes, trying to get people to use all-electric appliances??

Our daytime production of electric is during the peak, which helps the grid meet daytime peak load and lowers the strain on pole-mounted transformers (which often blow up and cause fires under heat storms); our night-time charging of the EVs also helps the grid, because otherwise they have to ramp down big generators to "warm start", and expensive and dirty process. I asked on DWP guy why they keep the lights on all night long in the downtown complex, he said, "LOAD BALANCING". Because at night, there's too much electric, we actually pump water up to lake castaic to "store" power for the next day (pumps turn into generators).
Look at the curve on caiso.com


On Sep 25 08:50 AM John Galt wrote:

> > > Yeah plugging a car into your garage might use less gas... but when
> that electricity is coming from a coal fired power plant...
>
> Who cares about the details. The devil is in the details. Just be
> green and remember Ignorance is bliss!