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Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That

Lets put the hyperbole aside and look at the facts;

Sprint pays substantially for Backhaul capacity, which is the Operating Expenses associated with transfering data or voice from its towers to the switching centers. With their launch of Wimax 4G these operating expenses could be substantially limited.

LTE is a standard witch is 85% similar to WiMAX and has yet to be deployed. In 2010 it still will have limited deployments and an eco-system that is still relatively new, while Wimax can claim a far more mature environment.

If we are to believe the experts and not the hyperbole from Verizon's spin masters then LTE will not have significant deployments until 2012, at which time WiMAX II (IEEE 802.16m) will be ready for deployment. This will come with a software upgrade to the existing WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e) currently being deployed by Sprint/Clearwire. WiMAX II has manifested speeds of 300Mhz/s to 1Ghz/s, which will leave Verizon's spin masters in the dust.

As of the end of November 2009, Sprint purported to have 30 million POPS in 33 cities and to have met their 2009 WiMAX launches ahead of schedule. Since there are no longer any question marks surrounding Sprint ability to fund its WiMAX deployments we can expect Sprint to have a ubiquitous WiMAX platform by the end of 2010.

With Sprint/Clearwire's virtual monopoly of the 2.5Ghz spectrum in the USA and exponential growth expected in Data and close to 150Mhz of spectrum in most US cities Sprint/Clearwire are ensconced to do well in the near future.

As a reminder, Sprint lost most of its customers only because it lacked a decent line up of phones and not because of the quality of its network. When the iPhone was released three years ago Sprint put up a mediocre Samsung Instinct to compete with it and it was not until June of this year that Sprint began introducing anything worthy of comparisons with the iPhone. Its current line is impressive considering that six months ago they had nothing worth mentioning. Today Sprint has a line up of phones that can match ATT and Verizon any day. They have a great line up of Android, WebOS and Windows based phones, which can easily outperform the iPhone in functionality. In the Q1 2010 quarter they will introduce their 4G phones, which I am told will be disclosed at the CES 2010 on Jan 6, 2010.

Once Sprint can show a full quarter with a decent line-up of smartphones you will see the bleeding of its customers come to a halt. Q1 2010 will be that first quarter because most of its current line up was introduced in the middle part of the Q4 period. In June of 2009 they introduced the Pre, In November they introduced the Hero, Moment, TouchPro 2, Pixi and an improved version of the Tour, however most of these phones have not been on display long enough to warrant a full quarters exposure. Couple this with their inexpensive plans, such as the Everything Mobile Plan and Unlimited Plan against that of ATT and Verizon and you would be a fool to want to leave Sprint for ATT or Verizon, especially when you know Sprint has twice ATT's 3G coverage and 14 times Tmobile's coverage.

Now Sprint can also claim to be the only carrier with a 4G platform that would leave all the Spin masters at ATT in the dust and Verizon's management in the Psychological ward for not being able to use any Legerdemain to character assassinate their rival Sprint.

Sorry folks, LTE is a future technology that will be available when WiMAX II is ready and it will have absolutely no advantages over Wimax. In fact WiMAX II is much faster than LTE. Sprint will be less dependant on ATT and VZ when it fully deploys its Wimax in 2010, hence eliminating billions of dollars of operating expenses incurred using their Backhaul facilities.

Two interesting developements that occured during this Q4 period. Sprint added 5.3 million Pre Paid users to its Pre Paid rolls by purchasing Virgin Mobile and added another 700,000 subscribers in its purchase of iPCS. Until its purchase of iPCS Sprint was hamstrung in litigation with iPCS, limiting Sprint's ability to conduct business in those areas where iPCS did business. These events should continue to improve the efficiencies the company has manifested in the latter two years.

Owing to the aforementioned I expect Sprint to put a halt on the bleeding of its Post Paid clientele some time in 2010.

Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone?

Great analogy.

Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That

Knowing that Sprint has twice the 3G coverage of ATT and 14 times the coverage of T-Mobile, and that they are the only carrier with a 4G platform, makes me wonder why anyone would claim that their networks suck, especially when you they have been recognized for having the 'most reliable' network by PC Magazine, and recognized for their network 'speed' by Boy Genius. This was all without their 4G platform.

Not only do they have a great network but it is the most reasonable when considering price. ATT with half the 3G coverage of Sprint charges $50 more per month than Sprint on their equivalent "all you can use programs." On their equivalent 'Everything Mobile," program Sprint is $80 cheaper than ATT and VZ.

Sprint is so sure of their coverage and service that they will allow you to use any of their phones for 30 days without a contract. That is unequivocal proof of how good their service is against the rest of the Telcos.

What Sprint was two or three years ago has no bearing on what it is today and where it will be tomorrow.

Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That

Six months ago Sprint had nothing! And I mean nothing, that is why their Q3 results look so lame. Three months ago they had the Pre, thats why their results improved, this quarter they will have numerous phones, the Pre, Pixi, Moment, Hero, Tour and the TouchPro2, mind you most of these phones will only be available in the mid quarter. Next quarter they will be the only carrier with a dual platform, 3G/4G, smartphone which will be included on the 2nd iteration of their Palm Pre. Give them a break, they have gone from nothing to a pretty impressive line-up that is only improving. As I have mentioned, with 17 cities already covered with 4G going on to over 25 within the next 6 weeks, Sprint should be ensconced to pretty well to fully meet its goal of having a ubiquitous 4G platform by the end of 2010. They have the warchest ($5.9 Billion in cash with a $1.6 Billion LOC) and they have laid down the right seeds for turning the trajectory of their business around. All they need is a little time, and I mean only a little time.

Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That

Sprint's facts:

Total Liquidity: $7.5 billion ($5.9 in cash, $1.6 LOC)
YTD Free Cash Flow $2.1 billion, Q3 $864 million
(this is including their pension contribution)

Only carrier with a 4G platform
Twice the 3G coverage of ATT
14 times the coverage of T-Mobile
This Quarter they will have the best line-up of Smartphones.
(Palm Pre & Pixi, HTC Hero & Samsung Moment, Tour etc.)

As of todays trading they have a Market Cap of $8.5 Billion. This means Sprint could essentially buyout all its own shares with its current cash position. The only thing lacking at Sprint was a decent line-up of Smart phones and that has been fully addressed. At these prices Sprint should buy out its own shares. Its current cash flow could easily manage its debt maturities. In 2010 the only Non-Revolving debt that will be maturing is for $750 million which is due on 6/28/2010.

Sprint's spectrum holding could fetch more than $20 billion on the free market, which would easily payoff all its debts. Just food for thought for those of you that don't have the vision to see what is happening.

Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That

You must have been sleeping for over a month to have made such claims about Sprint's line-up. IMHO Sprint for the first time has a line-up that is second to none. The Palm Pre & Pixi, the Samsung Moment, the HTC Hero and the Blackberry Tour. With the exception of the Tour, all the aforementioned phones can multifunction using their WebOS or Android operating systems. In relative terms, the growth in Android based or WebOS applications is growing much faster than that of the iPhone and it is only a matter of time before it won't matter whether any OS has 100K or 200K of applications. What will matter is the U/I, feel and quality of hardware and wireless platform. IMHO most of the aforementioned phone can already emulate the iPhone's latest iteration. The Moment has a faster processor (800Mhz), a better screen (AM-OLED), and interchangable battery and an easy to use qwerty keyboard. The Hero has a 5Mp camera, with an interchangable battery. Its hardware is substantially better made than anything to date. We all know what the Pre is capable of and remember it is their first iteration. The Tour is a decent dual mode (CDMA/GSM) Blackberry, which is good for those of us that need to use our phones internationally. Now six months ago Sprint had Zilch in Smartphones that was worthy of mentioning, however their selection has improved so much that you could easily say they have the best selection among all carriers and I am not kidding. Now couple this with their Post Paid Plans and they become untouchable for quality and price. Last but not least, Sprint has TWICE the 3G coverage of ATT and FOURTEEN times the 3G coverage of T-Mobile. You should also note that Sprint is the ONLY major carrier with a 4G platform. They have 17 cities already covered and will be in 25+ cities within six weeks, and 80 cities in 2010.

Verizon's Droid Is the Real Deal

The spin from Vz never ceases. Why don't you mention the HTC hero that was introduced last week or the Samsung Moment that will be introduced in 10 days? Both these phones are already better than the iPhone 3GS hands down. Both use Google's Android OS, the Hero has a 5Mp camera, interchangable battery, and substantially better hardware. The Moment has an AM-OLED screen, 800 Mhz CPU, slide out qwerty keyboard and longer battery life. Can some one tell me honestly what the iPhone GS has that is better than both these phones?

Verizon's spin will not make their Android phones work any better than Sprint's. Verizon boasts about their 3G network which has a little more coverage than Sprint's but have little to say about their 4G coverage. Spin doesn't carry much of a punch after you cry wolf too often.

Now let us look at the Android phones at Sprint, the Hero or the Moment, both have better hardware than the best iPhone. Both are run on Sprint's 3G network which is substantially larger and better than ATT's (ATT and T-Mobile combined have less than 40% of Sprint's 3G coverage). Sprint already covers 16 markets with 4G and by the end of this quarter will be in 23 cities in the US. In 2010 Sprint will be the only carrier with a 4G Smartphone running on the WebOS and Android platforms. Now that is awesome! What makes it better is that you will be paying 50% less than what you will be paying ATT and Verizon.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

A few things to ponder are, does Apple have a superior patented technology in the iPhone? Are their applications tethered only to the iPhone? Is the iPhone today really a better Smartphone than many of its competitors on the flanks. My answer is a big No, however that does not mean the iPhone is a bad phone, what I am saying is it really doesn't have anything that I would call superior to its competition. However this was the case two and a half years ago when they launched the first iPhone but not today and I suspect this will even be less with time. Apple absent of a destructive technology does not have the resources to match the likes of Google, Samsung, Msft etc. because the competition is coming from every flank. Lets just hope they can remain at the top with many equals.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

According to news reports today from Clearwire (CLWR), a 51% subsidary of Sprint, Sprint will have access to over 80 markets that are 4G compatible by the end of 2010. And yes the Palm Pre will be 4G compatible regardless of what the iPhone folks spin on these blogs. Now let us assume that the iPhone with ATT's 2.5 to 3G duo are equal with the Pre and Sprint's 3G duo, what are you going to do knowing that the iPhone will not be able to perform on a ubiquitous 4G platform for at least 2-3 more years. Notwithstanding the aforementioned we all know, based on the cognoscente not average consumers, that the Pre is a devise that 'runs rings around the iPhone 3G' and this is not hyperbole. Now let us see what Apple has in store for us in June. According to the pundits it doesn't seem to be anything significant.

IMHO, Palm is going to do well regardless of what Apple does with its iPhone. Palm will not kill the iPhone, however Palm will emerge as Apple's greatest rival, spuring on an interesting rivalry that can only benefit consumers. I can't wait to see the heavy weight contest in the coming weeks.

Believe me the Pre is going to shock you all on how well it sells and by God when it is coupled on a 4G network it will astound you.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

Marco, typos are common when people are more concerned about the substance of their blogs than they are about irrelevant facts. Those who are Short on Palm & Sprint are getting killed, plain and simple. They fear that their investments in Apple and Blackerry might be challenged by the success of the newcomer, the Palm Pre. You better believe It that Palm's success will have profound effects on the bottom line of many companies, such as ATT & VZ and Apple & Blackberry, whose combined market capitalization is approx. $400 Billion. Even though I do not believe that this is a 'zero sum' game, I have no doubt that the Pre will usurp the iPhone and stop Sprint's churn rate. In doing so ATT and VZ will begin to manifest slower growth and negative churn. Apple and Blackberry will also manifest lower margin's on their phones.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

Marco, typos are common when people are more concerned about the substance of their blogs than they are about irrelevant facts. Those who are Short on Palm & Sprint are getting killed, plain and simple. They fear that their investments in Apple and Blackerry might be challenged by the success of the newcomer, the Palm Pre. You better believe It that Palm's success will have profound effects on the bottom line of many companies, such as ATT & VZ and Apple & Blackberry, whose combined market capitalization is approx. $400 Billion. Even though I do not believe that this is a 'zero sum' game, I have no doubt that the Pre will usurp the iPhone and stop Sprint's churn rate. In doing so ATT and VZ will begin to manifest slower growth and negative churn. Apple and Blackberry will also manifest lower margin's on their phones.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

Palm's choice of Sprint was brilliant, in that Sprint is the only, and will be the only, carrier for the next two years to have 4G capabilities, hence enhancing the Pre's speed by a factor of at least 10 over the iPhone and Blackberry phones. Other than having a more efficient User Interface and more versatility the Pre will be operating on a super fast highway that ATT won't have available until 2011, that is if they follow through with their 4G plans in a timely manner. Now give me some Spin about the iPhone 4G? ATT again doesn't have 4G, so no matter what Apple does they will be limited to 2.5G to 3G for at least two more years. During this time Palm will be testing a better versions of its WebOS on a fully functioning Sprint 4G network, giving its developers a clear advantage. Now beat that!

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

Pre Advantages:

Let's examine the subject of multitasking first, which has been a major criticism of the iPhone almost ever since it was released.
Outside of a few core applications, such as the phone and iPod player, an iPhone user must completely exit out of one application in order to use another. For example, you can return to the home screen and select another iPhone application while staying connected on a phone call, but you can't move back and forth between two applications while allowing the first application to run in the background, making it harder to use applications like instant messaging or streaming radio.
Apple has said these limitations are necessary to prevent battery life from dropping off a cliff and to ensure application stability. That is perhaps part of the reason why Palm has chosen a different development model.
WebOS applications will be created with standard Web development tools such as CSS, JavaScript, and HTML that run on a version of the Webkit engine. This doesn't mean they are "Web applications," which require a connection to the Internet to work. It does, however, mean they are (in general) more lightweight and less-resource intensive than iPhone applications, which are developed using the Objective-C programming language.
That may limit the performance of WebOS applications. Don't expect the sophisticated gaming community, for example, to embrace the Pre. But Palm's approach means it will be very easy for anyone who has developed a Web application to get up and running on Pre development, which could help expand the number of applications in the early days of the device if the smartphone world likes what they see.
Other mobile operating systems--notably Android and Windows Mobile--allow multitasking, but Palm has developed an elegant way of switching between "cards," something vaguely akin to a combination of Windows' Alt-Tab switching and Mac OS' Expose, or switching between tabs on a Web browser. New applications can be launched using the "Launcher" software button on the bottom of the home screen, and users navigate between different applications by flicking finger left or right.
It remains to be seen how many open WebOS applications it will take to crash the Pre. (Palm product managers at CTIA 2009 refused to speculate, but said it would be very hard to overload the phone.) But Palm's implementation of multitasking is slick, as is its method for delivering notifications.
Notifications are the lifeblood of the mobile computer: if I'm carrying an always-on, always-connected computer, then I want to know right away when something has happened. With the release of iPhone OS 3.0, Apple plans to expand its notifications service to third-party applications, whereas right now it only works for core applications such as incoming phone calls, text messages, and calendar appointments.
But Apple's system for notifications uses a pop-up window that interrupts you in the middle of a task, pauses the application, and forces you to make a choice (close, view) before proceeding. Palm's notification bar is much less obtrusive.
When a Pre user receives an e-mail or text message, that alert will pop up on the lower part of the Pre's screen as a horizontal bar. But the alert won't interrupt the application, and if the user chooses simply to ignore that alert, it will soon retreat to the lower edge of the screen to be accessed later when the task at hand is completed. That alert will always be at the bottom of the Pre's screen no matter what application or view you've selected, along with some brief information such as the sender or subject line.
Apple's approach lets you dismiss the alert and continue what you were doing but forces you to remember that you received notifications from a specific application, such as the ESPN Alerts application demonstrated at the iPhone 3.0 event. A number outlining how many alerts you've received will appear over the icon for that application--just as you can see how many e-mail messages await you--but if you're in a different sector of the home screen, you won't necessarily see the alerts for that particular application.
Some may dismiss these differences as simply user preferences. But multitasking and notifications are among the most important reasons to own a mobile computer, and few companies have managed to come up with something that advances the game along those lines since the iPhone OS made its debut. Palm has.