Seeking Alpha

Machiavelli999

Machiavelli999
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Machiavelli999's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • India soars nearly 3% on election hopes [View news story]
    "Just see with what happened with Obama in the US. Could not move the needle an inch. "

    Except the market has done better under him than just about any other president. But yea, definitely couldn't move the needle. Instead he snapped the needle in half and threw it away.
    May 9 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. will be energy self-sufficient by 2035, BP study says [View news story]
    Oh really? I didn't realize EPA regulations didn't apply to private land. I thought Obama's EPA has destroyed the entire energy industry and we are all going to be living in caves soon, right?
    Jan 15 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. will be energy self-sufficient by 2035, BP study says [View news story]
    But, but, but...Obama!
    Jan 15 11:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group to debut today [View news story]
    I would assume you get nothing as AAMRQ filed for bankruptcy. I doubt common shareholders got anything.
    Dec 9 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shots fired. Some digging around turns up recent comments from Larry Summers in which he was dismissive of QE's effectiveness and suggested he might tighten policy ahead of when a Bernanke or Yellen-led Fed might. "If we have slow growth, we are not going to keep thinking that 5.5% UE is normal ... that is going to operate in favor of suggesting that we should normalize interest rates (sooner) ... I think the market is underestimating the pace at which the Fed will alter its current course and the consequences of that for interest rates." It's reportedly down to Summers and Janet Yellen to replace Bernanke atop the Fed. [View news story]
    This is awful. If Summers is nominated, look out below! for stocks and the economy.

    I have been pretty much a Bernanke bull for the last 3 years, but I think the market needs to start discounting the high probability of the idiotic Summers nomination for Fed chair.

    This would also quickly go into the Top 10 list for me of Obama's dumbest moves.
    Jul 25 01:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold tumbles (GLD -2.2%) as the strong employment print at a minimum won't derail the momentum of the QE-taper. Silver (SLV -3.5%). [View news story]
    Sorry gold bugs, you lose again.

    And yes, I know you'll say that doomsday and hyperinflation is just around the corner. You have been saying it for over 100 years (since creation of Fed), but the more simple explanation is: you are wrong and you understanding of economics is lacking
    Jul 5 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn (CORN -3.9%) crumbles after the USDA estimates farmers planted 97.379M acres - the most since 1936 and far ahead of estimates for just 95.431M acres. The number of acres to be harvested, however, fell to 89.135M from 89.5M projected 2 weeks ago, and stocks of 2.764B bushels are below expectations of 2.845B. Bean (SOYB -0.5%) acreage is estimated at about an inline 77.28M acres - the most ever. DBA -1%[View news story]
    Hyperinflation any day now...ANY DAY....keep waiting...and waiting...and waiting...
    Jun 28 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Chicago PMI: It's the largest month drop in 4 years for the index and continues a slide from 58.7 in May. Leading the way is a plunge in Order Backlogs to the lowest level since September 2009. Faster Supplier Deliveries and declines in Production and New Orders also contributed to the weakness, though the Employment indicator posted a gain. The news is of no help to Treasury prices (TLT -0.6%), the 10-year yield continuing higher at 2.54%. [View news story]
    Bad news is good news now
    Jun 28 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks moved broadly higher, propelling the Dow and S&P 500 to new record levels and capping the year's strongest three-day rally. Investors took comfort in the knowledge the Fed is still very much in the mix, and surprisingly strong data from China and Europe provided an early base for optimistic sentiment. Gold was the one major weak area, knocked back by Goldman's cautious outlook[View news story]
    People have been saying this market is going to crash for 4 years now. Sorry, you are all wrong. Unless Fed unexpectedly tightens significantly, stocks are going higher. Accept it. Profit from it. Stop selling doom & gloom.
    Apr 10 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The yen (FXY) tumbles another 1% vs. the dollar as a new report suggests the BOJ plans to move fast and move big with JGB purchases. Buying less than ¥93 moments before the BOJ announced aggressive new easing measures Thursday, the dollar this moment is worth ¥98.51. The Nikkei adds 2.8% in early Tokyo trade, giving it a middling 8.6% gain since Thursday. [View news story]
    Not really. As you said and just like Volcker showed, all it takes is dedication.
    Apr 8 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The yen (FXY) tumbles another 1% vs. the dollar as a new report suggests the BOJ plans to move fast and move big with JGB purchases. Buying less than ¥93 moments before the BOJ announced aggressive new easing measures Thursday, the dollar this moment is worth ¥98.51. The Nikkei adds 2.8% in early Tokyo trade, giving it a middling 8.6% gain since Thursday. [View news story]
    Great move by Mr. K. Could go down as the best central banker of his era. Bernanke should learn and watch how to deanchor deflationary expectations.

    By the way, all of you who criticize these moves, should realize that it's not really about printing money and it's all about expectations. If you don't understand that, you don't get monetary policy. BOJ has already printed tons of money. Why hasn't it had an effect? Because the market anticipates, properly, that the BOJ will start sucking money out at first hint of inflation. It has already done that several times over last 20 years. So, now the market has a hard time believing that any BOJ move is credible. But the more Mr. K. upsets people like you, the more the market believes that he is really committed to creating inflation.

    You should read some Friedman and come back here once you do if you don't get what I just wrote.
    Apr 8 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The weak 30-year auction snuffs out an attempted rally in Treasurys, with the long bond falling about a quarter-point in price, the yield now up 3 bps to 3.26%. Direct bidders forgot to show up - participation was the lowest in more than 3 years - leaving primary dealers with more than half of the sale. TLT -0.3%[View news story]
    Here is a statement that will blow your mind and should cause you to rethink everything you know about interest rates and monetary policy but won't:

    " Low interest rates are generally a sign that money has been tight, as in Japan; high interest rates, that money has been easy.

    . . .

    After the U.S. experience during the Great Depression, and after inflation and rising interest rates in the 1970s and disinflation and falling interest rates in the 1980s, I thought the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates was dead. Apparently, old fallacies never die."

    What crazy left-wing nut said something like this? DeLong? Krugman?

    Umm..how about Dr. Milton Friedman http://bit.ly/Z2G1wi
    Mar 14 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The weak 30-year auction snuffs out an attempted rally in Treasurys, with the long bond falling about a quarter-point in price, the yield now up 3 bps to 3.26%. Direct bidders forgot to show up - participation was the lowest in more than 3 years - leaving primary dealers with more than half of the sale. TLT -0.3%[View news story]
    Simply look at the Fed balance sheet and outstanding US debt.

    The Balance Sheet is currently $1.8 Trillion
    http://bit.ly/Wib5wE

    Outstanding US Debt is $16.4 Trillion
    http://bit.ly/Z2FH0s

    This is pretty simple stuff here. The Fed owes. a little over 10% of US debt.

    You guys have been saying rates will go up any day now for 4 years, while rates continue to go lower. How many more years of being wrong is enough? I know, infinity. You are like the doomsday prophet whose prophecy never comes true but always claims he is right.

    Interestingly enough, the biggest holder of US Treasuries is.....YOU! Yes, you! The ultra-conservative, keep everything in cash loonie. You got all your money in your checking/savings account or CDs? You know what that means? YOU ARE HOLDING TREASURIES!!

    This is why in the situation we are in now, low rates are a sign of a depressed economy and rising rates means people are leaving Treasuries and entering into more riskier assets. We have had the negative correlation between rates and equities for 5 years now, have you not noticed it??? Or just to chose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative.
    Mar 14 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The weak 30-year auction snuffs out an attempted rally in Treasurys, with the long bond falling about a quarter-point in price, the yield now up 3 bps to 3.26%. Direct bidders forgot to show up - participation was the lowest in more than 3 years - leaving primary dealers with more than half of the sale. TLT -0.3%[View news story]
    So stupid. Complete cluelessness on display. When economy gets better and stock market improves, Treasuries fall and rates rise. It's elementary but apparently beyond your grasp.
    Mar 14 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the open: Dow +0.22% to 14487. S&P +0.26% to 1559. Nasdaq +0.27% to 3254.
    Treasurys: 30-year -0.41%. 10-yr -0.2%. 5-yr -0.1%.
    Commodities: Crude +0.04% to $92.56. Gold -0.51% to $1580.3.
    Currencies: Euro -0.18% vs. dollar. Yen +0.36%. Pound -0.24%[View news story]
    That's one of the dumbest comments I've seen. Where did all the money go that went out of the entire stock market in 2008/2009?

    Money doesn't go anywhere. It circulates all ways. For every buyer putting money in, there is a seller taking money out. The market is just a way to value the company.

    If I buy a popsicle, did my money go into the popsicle? If I buy a house, did my money go into the house?
    Mar 14 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
829 Comments
1,998 Likes