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Machiavelli999

Machiavelli999
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  • Aug. Challenger Job-Cut Report: 34,768, down from 41,676 prior and falling to a ten-year low after 3 months of gains. "While the pace of job creation continues to disappoint, job security appears to be stronger than ever."  [View news story]
    Except loss of government jobs is the major drag on all the employment reports in recent months. But don't let the facts get in way of your narrative.
    Sep 1 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: As expected, a more thorough debate over the reinvestment plan and splits are becoming apparent over whether moves toward easing send the wrong message. Yet the policy statement got all votes except Thomas Hoenig's.  [View news story]
    Ummm....wheat is up because of the wildfires in Russia.

    Besides that, look at CPI, look at housing. Look at inflation expectations as defined by the TIPS spreads. Deflation is already here.
    Aug 31 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Business Activity Index -13.5 vs. previous -21. Mfg. Production Index -0.1 vs. previous 4.9. New Orders -9.3 vs. previous -9.6. Shipments -3.4 vs. previous -1.1.  [View news story]
    But I thought this was a Blue State recession...
    Aug 30 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed should consider raising rates as much as 200 basis points, Raghuram Rajan says, because near-zero rates risk fanning asset bubbles or propping up inefficient companies. “Low rates are not a free lunch, but people are acting as though they are," the former IMF chief economist says. Krugman says it would be "an utter disaster."  [View news story]
    Tack,

    If the Fed even announced its intentions to raise rates, then rates would rise immediately. There would be no period where businesses would be scrambling to borrow and invest. And btw, eventhough I think the least we can do is maintain 0% rate environment, I doubt that monetary policy has much effect right now. Consider this quote from the CEO of Illinois Tool Works:

    "I could borrow $2 billion tomorrow for 3 1/2 percent. But what am I going to do with it?"

    www.calculatedriskblog...


    Businesses are not looking for low rates. They are looking for demand. More precisely spending. And they don't care if it comes from the private sector, exports, government or aliens. They will respond to it. If and ONLY if they see more spending and more demand will they invest and hire people.
    Aug 23 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CBO says the U.S. deficit will reach $1.34T this year, slightly down from an earlier projection - but that its estimate for fiscal 2011 is a deficit of $1.07T, higher than its earlier $980B estimate. The 2010 deficit is estimated at 9.1% of U.S. GDP.  [View news story]
    The problem the defecits are not BIG ENOUGH. Let the rain of down thumbs begin!
    Aug 20 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More QE Q&A: St. Louis Fed's James Bullard (an FOMC voter) says the central bank may need to step up asset buys if inflation falls further - still a strong point of view from a self-described inflation hawk.  [View news story]
    Pardon my ignorance, but what do you mean by "bonds"? Bonds are treasuries. Unless you mean corporate or mortgage backed bonds?

    And even accomplishing that (getting money out of Treasuries and into some risk assets) will stimulate at least some economic activity. I am glad you understand that rising Treasury yields would be a good sign and a sign that people are willing to put their money into something productive and that is what Ben is trying to achieve by pushing the yields lower and lower.
    Aug 19 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard: Amplifies recent comments that new QE may be needed if inflation keeps slowing. Expansion of the U.S. recovery is the most likely course going forward, but the European debt crisis hasn't gone away.  [View news story]
    And in reality, we have deflation. Oh, and btw, bankers and creditors historically hate inflation. I don't even know what level of economic misunderstanding you must have to think that creditors like inflation.
    Aug 19 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More QE Q&A: St. Louis Fed's James Bullard (an FOMC voter) says the central bank may need to step up asset buys if inflation falls further - still a strong point of view from a self-described inflation hawk.  [View news story]
    "The funny part is: after they buy everything, it will be worth nothing becasue they have destroyed the currency trying to save the banks. "


    We interrupt YET ANOTHER rambling SA thread for another dose of reality.

    The dollar is up (which is not a good thing). We have deflation. Yields are at record lows. All the facts are against you.

    In addition, austerity is being implemented slowly around the world. It will only pickup as your idealogy is winning and will soon gain power. The effect will be an even further plunge for the developed world economies and you won't care. You'll just say not enough was cut.

    And speaking of the Fed, we have deflation. Milton Friedman (the ultimate free market guy) says that you expand the monetary base during deflationary environment. Remember what the Fed did last week (rolling over cash from MBS securities to Treasuries) was just to stop a contractionary monetary polic.....

    I don't even know why I bother. I think you guys are so delusional that anything the government does (even stuff that it's supposed to do, like run monetary policy) you consider bad. God how I wish all of you would just setup your own actively managed ETF, so I can short the hell out of it.
    Aug 19 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Der Spiegel's portrait of Greece today, as austerity measures backfire: "Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70% in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back."  [View news story]
    Again youngman, I don't know why it's so hard to understand that all those evil people in the public sector economy, buy stuff from the private sector economy. Despite your desires, everything is linked. Especially, in a depression.
    Aug 18 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Der Spiegel's portrait of Greece today, as austerity measures backfire: "Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70% in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back."  [View news story]
    Can you give a timeline for this "short-term pain"? Two? Three? 10 Years?

    I promise you that if there are no radical changes in policy (such as leaving the Euro), the Greek economy will remain depressed for AT LEAST a decade.

    Ireland imposed austerity on itself for the longest time out of all developed world economies. It is also the most depressed economy right now. Its bond yields and CDS spreads are higher than most counties that implemented stimulus measures.

    I guess what I am trying to get at is is there a point where you admit you are wrong? How much longer will you predict that we will have hyper-inflation as we head farther and farther into deflation? How much longer will you predict that treasuries are about to tank as with every day they keep rising and rising? When will facts and results matter?
    Aug 18 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More evidence of heavy correlation as the "drive-by" market has investors looking neither ahead to future events, nor into the rear-view at yesterday's happenings, but out the side window: What should we be reacting to today?  [View news story]
    I disagree. I think the eyes of the "smart money" at least is on the next Fed meeting in 5 weeks.
    Aug 16 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Way too many people are way too complacent this summer, Brett Arends writes, citing 10 reasons to be very, very worried.  [View news story]
    enigmaman,

    One of the surest sign that you are an investing loser is that you let politics get into your investment decisions. Be honest, how much money have you lost in this market since Obama came to power?
    Aug 15 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KC Fed President Thomas Hoenig: Lashes out at monetary policy (a "dangerous gamble" in a moderate-growth environment). The recovery's got legs and is moving faster than the last two, and he finds "no evidence that deflation is the most serious threat to the recovery today." Using Fed policy as a "cure-all" for all problems risks repeating the cycle of severe recession and unemployment.  [View news story]
    You can do it whenever you want....if you want to lose all your money.
    Aug 13 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IMF's report that the U.S. needs to grow at 14% in perpetuity to close its fiscal gap leads Laurence Kotlikoff to conclude that "our country is broke and can no longer afford no-pain, all-gain" Ponzi solutions. Hard-core Keynesians who say any short-term stimulus won’t affect our ability to handle long-term deficits are "wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic." (also)  [View news story]
    "So, how come Zimbabwe is not the world's most prosperous country?"
    ----------------------...
    I have been wishing someone would ask me this. The reason is simple. They have REAL economic problems. Meaning if I was to print a ton of money and to hand it out to people in Zimbabwe. They would want to buy stuff with it, but there is no productive capacity in the country to build or produce anything. So, what would happen is you would boost demand by printing all the money, but the supply would remain depressed (due to real reasons, uneducated workforce, too much government harassment, etc, etc). So this leads to demand >>> supply. And THAT'S HOW YOU GET INFLATION.

    We don't have this problem in America. In fact, we have the opposite. Supply >>> Demand. AND THAT"S HOW WE GET DEFLATION.
    Aug 11 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Cards on the Table [View article]
    "Production = Wealth. "

    Production for whom?? You realize you need to have demand before you can produce? Someone has to buy and consume what you are producing. Who is Ireland going to produce for?

    This is such a typical "Conservative" response. Economically clueless. But sounding tough, so it has to be right.
    Aug 10 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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