Dude, where's my weaker currency? After the BOJ gives the market what it wanted in the form of a 33% bigger QE program, the yen gets even stronger, the greenback off 0.4% to ¥80.67. "The leopard doesn't change its spots," says Tim Condon, "(The BOJ) doesn't view monetary accommodation as a cure capable of reversing Japan's deflation." [View news story]
Short? Lots of dead traders on the side of the road that have shorted Japan's bond market and currency...Risky, but I like the trade as well and shorted two weeks ago by going long YCS. It is soooo manipulated it is hard to say how bad..
Short Yen: Great Strategy, Excellent Diversifier [View article]
Good point. The clock is ticking in that the number of people entering the workforce is less then what is leaving - this doesn't work well for ponzi schemes. Many old people have had to keep working because they can't be replaced - amazing! As soon as the Gubmint has to go to foreigners for debt financing they are in big trouble. They would have to cough up an additional 2-3% at least. If interest rates rise just 1% their debt service would eat up ALL of their revenues. Regardless of the number of dead bodies on the road from shorting the Yen, things are different this time because they have to import all of their energy and they've had a huge hit on their economy via Fukishima which will continue to cause economic havoc on the country. I think the Europe crises will be enough to put Japan over the edge, they economy is teetering on a razor blade right now and NOTHING they are doing will make it better. Japan, Europe (including GB) and the USA are all headed for the same wall, who gets there first? I think it is Europe, they have put the pedal to the metal while the US has slowed things enough to make people believe its all good. Short Japan. Short Europe. Short the US, just not yet. You could go long US equities via SPY or Qs as well, just feels wrong to go long anything right now (except AU and Ag). I'm short the Yen via YCS as others are, I've been padding my position on dips. I'm also short the European Bond market via EPV as of Friday. I entered DRR (Euro double short) early last week, this is my largest position. EWQ, EWI and EWP are all candidates for shorting as well, Spain, Italy and France bond markets. Going long the dollar is a good trade as well, at least for a few more months. Au and Ag will likely hit their multi-year lows in that same period only to explode to all time highs by year's end.
Short Yen: Great Strategy, Excellent Diversifier [View article]
Likely to hit 160s as the market over corrects. Question is time between YEN crash and burn and USD crash and burn, that timing will define the floor for the YEN.
Dude, where's my weaker currency? After the BOJ gives the market what it wanted in the form of a 33% bigger QE program, the yen gets even stronger, the greenback off 0.4% to ¥80.67. "The leopard doesn't change its spots," says Tim Condon, "(The BOJ) doesn't view monetary accommodation as a cure capable of reversing Japan's deflation." [View news story]
Short Yen: Great Strategy, Excellent Diversifier [View article]
As soon as the Gubmint has to go to foreigners for debt financing they are in big trouble. They would have to cough up an additional 2-3% at least. If interest rates rise just 1% their debt service would eat up ALL of their revenues.
Regardless of the number of dead bodies on the road from shorting the Yen, things are different this time because they have to import all of their energy and they've had a huge hit on their economy via Fukishima which will continue to cause economic havoc on the country.
I think the Europe crises will be enough to put Japan over the edge, they economy is teetering on a razor blade right now and NOTHING they are doing will make it better.
Japan, Europe (including GB) and the USA are all headed for the same wall, who gets there first? I think it is Europe, they have put the pedal to the metal while the US has slowed things enough to make people believe its all good.
Short Japan. Short Europe. Short the US, just not yet. You could go long US equities via SPY or Qs as well, just feels wrong to go long anything right now (except AU and Ag).
I'm short the Yen via YCS as others are, I've been padding my position on dips. I'm also short the European Bond market via EPV as of Friday. I entered DRR (Euro double short) early last week, this is my largest position. EWQ, EWI and EWP are all candidates for shorting as well, Spain, Italy and France bond markets.
Going long the dollar is a good trade as well, at least for a few more months. Au and Ag will likely hit their multi-year lows in that same period only to explode to all time highs by year's end.
Short Yen: Great Strategy, Excellent Diversifier [View article]
Chances Of Broad Sell-Off Increase As Economic And European News Worsens [View article]